By Zachary Gorchow
President of Michigan Operations
Posted: December 4, 2020 9:57 AM

It's been one month since Election Day, and there's a lot of lessons to be learned from Republicans clinching their sixth consecutive majority in the Michigan House.

This was an impressive performance by the GOP. They knocked out two Democratic incumbents in seats that had not elected a Republican in modern Michigan political history and had two candidates overcome Democratic President-elect Joe Biden carrying their districts to defeat their Democratic opponents.

If those four seats go the other way, it's a 56-54 Democratic House. Instead, it will be a 58-52 Republican majority again.

There's – again – a lot of soul-searching among Democrats about what went wrong.

I think the answer is mostly simple. Realignment continued at a breakneck speed in white working class areas in favor of the GOP, thus taking down Rep. Brian Elder (D-Bay City) and Rep. Sheryl Kennedy (D-Davison) but moved less quickly in the suburban areas shifting toward the Democrats. The speed of the Democratic incursion into Oakland County slows greatly once it reaches roughly M-59 at the Macomb County border running west to where M-5 would be if it went that far north, south to 14 Mile at the Novi border and then west to Napier Road until that reaches Eight Mile Road.

Two seats the Democrats needed for majority, the 39th and 45th House Districts, which cover Rochester, Rochester Hills, part of Oakland Township, part of West Bloomfield, Wixom and Commerce Township lie mostly outside of this zone. Republican Rep.-elect Mark Tisdel of Rochester Hills and Rep. Ryan Berman (R-Commerce Township) won those seats.

I've seen the biennial lament from some Democrats blaming the 2011 reapportionment plan for their continued minority status, but that simply doesn't wash. Democrats were 8-0 combined in the Elder and Kennedy seats this decade until both lost this year.

No doubt, the 2021 reapportionment will be a better scenario for Democrats with the independent commission drawing the lines instead of the Republican Legislature, but based on the language of the constitutional amendment that created the commission, as well as population growth patterns, it will not be a panacea for Democrats in the House and in some cases Republicans stand to benefit, and I'll have more details on that below.

Before we get to that, I think it's worth noting what districts were among the 20 closest in 2018 but were not in 2020. Rep. Joe Bellino (R-Monroe), Rep. Steve Marino (R-Harrison Township), Rep. Graham Filler (R-DeWitt), Rep. Rodney Wakeman (R-Saginaw Township), Rep. Annette Glenn (R-Midland), Rep. Roger Hauck (R-Mount Pleasant) and Rep. Greg Markkanen (R-Hancock) all vastly increased their victory margins.

Meantime, let's take a look at the 20 closest races this year for the Michigan House and see what we can glean from what happened.

109TH: Welcome to the only Democratic-held House district north of Saginaw where Rep. Sara Cambensy (D-Marquette) won reelection by 14.5 percentage points. Even as the rest of the Upper Peninsula turns bright red, Marquette, with Northern Michigan University, remains a Democratic enclave. This district will likely have to keep getting bigger as Marquette County's population declines, and that means bringing in more conservative turf in the 2021 reapportionment. That makes 2022 potentially interesting when Ms. Cambensy cannot seek reelection because of term limits.

79TH: From 1994-2014, it was an axiom of Michigan politics that presidential years were good years for Democrats in Michigan because their voters came out in greater force while midterms favored Republicans because their voters were more reliable to show up. Is that all changing now that we've had two presidential cycles in a row where Republicans have fared well and a midterm that favored Democrats? I have no idea, but it sure looked that way in southwest Michigan where U.S. Rep. Fred Upton's close call in 2018 and a closer than expected margin for state Rep. Pauline Wendzel (R-Watervliet) got Democrats thinking about big gains. Those hopes were smashed because outside of Kalamazoo County, these southwest counties aren't changing politically. Instead, the Trump Republican voters came out in force in the presidential years and propelled Republicans to landslide wins over Democrats. Democrat Chokwe Pitchford of Benton Harbor got some attention for an impressive campaign video and spirited effort that included a big campaign cash haul, but it was no match against the political reality of this district with Ms. Wendzel cruising by 13.24 percentage points.

31ST: Is the next area of Macomb County to start shifting from blue to purple Clinton Township? Between reapportionment, which will really scramble the current Macomb lines, and Rep. Bill Sowerby (D-Clinton Township) unable to run again because of term limits, 2022 could be interesting here. The question will be if this district reaches farther north into the more GOP areas of the township. Do Fraser and Mount Clemens remain in the district or go elsewhere? Mr. Sowerby defeated a weak GOP candidate by 12.54 percentage points. The Republicans have a bench that could take advantage depending on how the lines look.

20TH: Rep. Matt Koleszar (D-Plymouth) won a statement-like 10.18 percentage point victory over a little known Republican, almost quadrupling his close 2018 win. Republicans seemed to realize early on this one had slipped away. Plymouth and Northville townships as well as the cities of the same name fit the demographic of the Detroit suburbs where Democrats are gaining – large percentages of people with bachelor's degrees and growing racial diversity, particularly those of south Asian descent. Mr. Biden won decisively here.

72ND: Kentwood didn't blow up for Democrats like they hoped and Republicans feared, and Republican strength in the rest of the district (Gaines Township and part of Allegan County) carried Rep. Steve Johnson (R-Wayland) to a 10.12 percentage point victory, not far off from his 10.3 point 2018 win. This will be a whole new ballgame in 2022 with the massive population growth in Kent County forcing a major redrawing of lines that should benefit the Democrats compared to how they look now and Mr. Johnson unable to run again because of term limits. The Democratic candidate just never got traction here, and the question is whether Democrats can build a bench in Kentwood to win the new iteration of this seat in 2022. It will be one of their best hopes for a flip – depending on what communities join Kentwood in the district.

41ST: We're into the top 15 now. Rep. Padma Kuppa (D-Troy) dusted a weak Republican opponent and like Mr. Koleszar nearly quadrupled her 2018 victory margin with a 10.08 percentage point win. Troy looks like a goner for the GOP for some time thanks to its large percentage of voters with bachelor's degree and rapid racial diversification. Mr. Biden won big here.

50TH: Warning sirens probably should be sounding for Democrats here come 2022. Yes, Rep. Tim Sneller (D-Burton) won reelection by a comfortable 9.48 percentage points, but the Democratic carnage in the neighboring 48th District signals real troubles in suburban Genesee County. And Mr. Sneller is barred from running in 2022 by term limits. The big question will be what the lines look like. What communities does Burton get combined with? The city of Flint will probably have a single district in the 2021 reapportionment instead of having part of the city in a second district as a result of population loss. That will create a domino effect elsewhere.

96TH: The political play of the year by House Republicans was going after Mr. Elder. To oust an incumbent by 9.2 percentage points, as Rep.-elect Timothy Beson (R-Bay City) did to Mr. Elder is extraordinary. A combination of Elder mistakes (an ill-advised, quixotic bid for House Democratic leader in the 2019-20 term that saw him repudiate Right to Life of Michigan in an area where opposition to abortion really matters as well as getting caught flat-footed despite warning signs about the Republican rise in Bay County) plus Mr. Beson's strengths produced this result. I think it's safe to say Mr. Elder will be the last Democrat to hold this district for a long time. Reapportionment will only force this district to stretch farther into more conservative outlying areas of Bay County because of population loss in Bay City.

61ST: Democrats finally scored in Portage thanks to a first-rate effort by Rep.-elect Christine Morse (D-Texas Township), who won by a commanding 9.14 percentage points. Again, an area with large numbers of people with bachelor's degrees combined with increasing racial diversity and a good candidate proved the right recipe for a Democratic flip. Reapportionment could be tricky for Ms. Morse. Kalamazoo County has grown quite a bit and probably will have three full seats in 2022 instead of its current two full seats with other smaller portions attached to two other districts centered in other counties. It wouldn't be surprising to see Ms. Morse's district either move north to subsume the portion of the county now in Rep. Beth Griffin's 66th District or east to take up some of Rep. Matt Hall's 63rd District. The key to whatever the district looks like will still be Portage though.

67TH: Rep. Kara Hope (D-Holt) prevailed by 8.68 percentage points, down from 9.79 points in 2018. Republicans have not mounted a serious effort against her. It's one of those seats that seems to be drifting a bit toward the Republicans based on slightly falling Democratic victory margins but is still out of reach. Reapportionment could, perhaps, help Ms. Hope. Heavily Democratic Lansing's population has grown, which could mean she gets more of Lansing in her district and it will no longer be so weirdly gerrymandered to put as much of Lansing GOP turf into her seat as Republicans did in 2011. What if, however, the commission decides to carve up Lansing differently and attach the eastern part of the city to East Lansing and Meridian Township? That would be a horrible trade for Ms. Hope and really put this seat in play for 2022.

25TH: We're into the top 10, and this is where we now have some legitimately close races. How is it possible that the Republicans cannot find a non-extremist to run for this seat in Sterling Heights? Rep. Nate Shannon (D-Sterling Heights) has twice taken advantage of fringe GOP candidates who received no external support and yet because of Macomb's swing to Republicans won by just 5.72 percentage points this year over an unfunded, repudiated GOP candidate. The lines could look much different after the 2021 reapportionment. Sterling Heights has grown modestly in population. It seems apparent that if Republicans could find the equivalent of David Martin, Timmy Beson or Greg Markkanen in this district, they could really put the heat on Mr. Shannon.

39TH: Perhaps the most effective GOP gerrymander of 2011 was splitting West Bloomfield in half and pairing the more competitive part of it with the Republican juggernaut that is Commerce Township. Mr. Berman's 5.39 percentage point victory was just plain impressive given all the Democratic effort here. The lines don't get all the credit though. Mr. Biden narrowly carried the district, but there was a huge ticket-splitting component that saw many Biden voters switch to the GOP down the ballot, a credit to those candidates. The commission has some big decisions to make here. Is West Bloomfield split and if so how are two of the biggest.

23RD: The Republicans made a late play in the Downriver 23rd House District, but Rep. Darrin Camilleri (D-Brownstown) fended off an unknown Republican opponent by 5.39 percentage points. Mr. Trump ran strong here. From a redistricting standpoint, this district can't get much better for the GOP. If the commission carves it up and loops what's left into territory to the north, the Democrats will be in better shape than they are now. That said, Mr. Camilleri can't run in 2022 because of term limits so this seat will be closely watched and a prime GOP pickup opportunity.

45TH: Rochester and Rochester Hills have not seen the same racial diversification as other areas of Oakland County. That helped the GOP hold this seat by 4.7 percentage points. But it also seems clear voters preferred Mr. Tisdel candidate to candidate over Democrat Barb Anness. There was rampant ticket-splitting here with voters backing Mr. Biden, John James for U.S. Senate, Elissa Slotkin for U.S. House and then Mr. Tisdel. Very interesting decisions with reapportionment here. Rochester and Rochester Hills have grown, so that means less need for neighboring turf, which currently comes from a portion of strongly Republican Oakland Township. Democrats would love for a part of strongly Democratic Auburn Hills to replace Oakland in this seat. Still, Mr. Tisdel won Rochester and Rochester Hills in 2020. He could be tough to dislodge.

71ST: Rep. Angela Witwer (D-Delta Township) more than doubled her 2018 victory margin to 3.91 percentage points, but given that Republicans gave up on her opponent, Gina Johnsen, the margin was less authoritative than expected. Still, given how Trump voters returned to the polls in 2020, this seat could have gone south for the Democrats but for Ms. Witwer's efforts. Reapportionment should help somewhat. Given Eaton County has grown a bit, that presumably mean a little less of the conservative outlying areas in this district when the lines are redrawn.

104TH: Now we're into the top five. Rep.-elect John Roth (R-Traverse City) overcame a major Democratic effort to win by 3.87 percentage points. This was not the more robust victory margin Republicans anticipated at the start of the race, underscoring it's not just the shift of Traverse City to the Democrats, but that the large suburb of Garfield Township is entirely purple and so is Peninsula Township (Old Mission Peninsula). The rest of the district is solidly Republican, but the GOP has a problem here. Grand Traverse County has added about 7,000 people, meaning the new version of the district likely sheds some heavily Republican territory in the county's outlying areas. Mr. Roth will have incumbency going for him in 2022 and Democrats will be hard-pressed to find as strong a candidate as they have had in Dan O'Neil the last two cycles, but this could be very interesting.

38TH: Demographic change hit critical mass in Novi, and Rep.-elect Kelly Breen (D-Novi) won this open seat by 3.24 percentage points. Regardless of how this seat is drawn, there's no reversing the political winds in Novi. Also, Novi's population has grown substantially since the last reapportionment, so the next remap is likely to have less from heavily Republican Lyon Township. The Republicans may need to find a candidate from Novi's burgeoning Indian American community to scramble the equation here.

62ND: The Democrats have a serious Calhoun County problem, and reapportionment is only going to make it worse, not better, sorry Democrats. Rep. Jim Haadsma (D-Battle Creek) did all the right things and had an opponent who basically sleep-walked through the race and yet still only won by 2.64 percentage points. In 2011, Republicans shook up the Calhoun districts, pulling away less staunchly Republican turf in Calhoun from the neighboring 63rd District (Bedford and Pennfield townships) and dropping it into what is now the Haadsma district that has Battle Creek. In exchange, solidly Republican turf moved from the 62nd to the 63rd. The 62nd was supposed to be a Democratic district. Instead, Calhoun has marched steadily to the right. What happens in 2022 when Mr. Haadsma's squiggly district likely becomes more logically compact and more Republican? The GOP likely won't write this seat off again as long as it can find a strong candidate. (editor's note: this blog changed to note that while the 2011 reapportionment plan did make the Calhoun component of the 63rd more Republican, that was counterbalanced by making the Kalamazoo portion of the district more Democratic. Also, the story has been corrected to make clear that Albion was part of the 62nd in both the 2001 and 2011 reapportionment plans).

48TH: Confession time: I really blew it on this seat. Even though it had the white working class background to suggest it was ripe to go Republican with Mr. Trump on the ballot, I didn't see it happening because both parties thought Ms. Kennedy had run a good incumbency program and the Republicans were not pouring money into this race like they were elsewhere. Ooops. These realignment forces really do reign supreme, and much like Democrats had their first A-level candidate in the 61st with Ms. Morse, Republicans had the same here with Rep.-elect David Martin mounting the first credible GOP effort in the northern Genesee district. Mr. Martin won by 1 percentage point. But he could be in a very different seat in 2022. This is a weirdly shaped district, and Mr. Martin is at the far end of it. What if his hometown of Davison gets roped in with other Genesee communities to the west and south? Or what if it loses some of its Republican territory at the northern edge of the county and picks up heavily Democratic Mount Morris? This one is ripe for a big fight in 2022 depending on the lines and maybe a rematch with Ms. Kennedy if she's up for it.

19TH: And for the second consecutive year, the closest race in the state was Livonia's 19th House District where "Landslide" Rep. Laurie Pohutsky (D-Livonia) won another barn-burner, this time by 0.4 percentage point after a 0.48 percentage point win in 2018. Both sides were adamant their candidate would win, but the demographic change in Livonia favoring the Democrats, even if less than in other Detroit suburbs, combined with Ms. Pohutsky having two years to root herself in the community, proved just enough. This district won't change much in reapportionment. There's no reason to think this won't be another tight race in 2022 unless the strongest GOP candidates decide to hold off until 2024 when, if Ms. Pohutsky is in her third term, she will not be able to run again because of term limits.