By Zachary Gorchow
President of Michigan Operations
Posted: March 8, 2016 4:31 PM

It may not be the remarkable battle of four years ago between Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum for Michigan’s Republican presidential nominating delegates, but there is still plenty of intrigue and excitement to watch going into tonight’s presidential primary in this state.

While Michigan will not represent a key turning point in the march toward the 1,237 delegates needed on the Republican side, it marks an important moment in the evolution of the race.

Did the previously Teflon Donald Trump suffer damage in the past week, as suggested in his disappointing performance in Saturday’s primaries and caucuses? Or was that a blip? Can Ohio Governor John Kasich deliver on his vow to score better on his “home turf” in the north after a furious retail campaign effort in Michigan? How well organized is U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, who has made little personal effort in the state?

And for the Democrats, today is the first legitimate presidential primary their party has held in Michigan since 1992, lest we forget the 2008 mess in which the state party jumped the national party’s calendar and there was not a real campaign here.

Here’s what I’ll be watching, in no particular order:

1. TURNOUT IN THE STATE’S CITIES: Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s support among African-Americans is overwhelming. She is beating U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders in the states that have larger numbers of minority voters and losing those that are mostly Caucasian. Ms. Clinton has spent time in Detroit, Flint and Grand Rapids. She’ll need strong turnout in those cities, and others, to deliver on expectations of a big win.

2. THE DEQUINDRE LINE: In terms of cultural political differences, the one separating Macomb and Oakland counties along Dequindre Road is second only to Eight Mile Road. There are signs that Mr. Trump is going to play well in Macomb County, whose voters love a political brawler with a big personality. If Mr. Kasich is going to come closer to Mr. Trump than expected, he needs to score well in Oakland County, whose voters tend more toward the Republican establishment mold and prefer a more genteel brand of politics.

In 2012, for example, Mr. Romney beat Mr. Santorum by 8.7 percentage points in Macomb. He won by 21.3 percentage points in Oakland.

3. UNIVERSITY TOWNS: Mr. Sanders’ strength among college students is well-known. Will those voters show up today? Students at Central Michigan University, Michigan State University and Western Michigan University are on spring break. Did they vote absentee? Are they home with their parents and possibly better able to vote because of Michigan law that requires they register to vote at the same address listed on their driver’s license? The answers to those questions are critical to the Sanders campaign.

4. OTTAWA, KENT AND ALLEGAN COUNTIES: This triangle in western Michigan is the core of the state’s evangelical Republican vote. Here’s where Mr. Cruz has to score well. Mr. Santorum ran very strongly here four years ago. It was no accident that Mr. Cruz’s first visit in months to Michigan late Monday night was to suburban Grand Rapids. What kind of inroads can Mr. Trump make here? Mr. Cruz has had problems with evangelical voters, his presumed base, bleeding away somewhat to Mr. Trump.

5. 15 PERCENT: On the Republican side, candidates must win 15 percent of the statewide vote to qualify for delegates. Based on the polling, Mr. Trump, Mr. Kasich and Mr. Cruz seem in good shape to cross this threshold. Mr. Rubio appears in serious jeopardy of missing it.

6. BORDER COUNTIES: All things being equal, Monroe, Lenawee and Hillsdale counties would be a battle between Mr. Trump and Mr. Cruz. The voters there are socially conservative and blue collar, and Hillsdale has a strong evangelical component. But those are counties that pick up Ohio network television affiliates and where the Toledo Blade has a strong following. Part of Mr. Kasich’s hope for a strong showing rests on scoring well in these areas.

7. BLUE COLLAR DEMOCRATIC SUBURBS IN DETROIT: Mr. Sanders has made a big push against Ms. Clinton on her support for free trade agreements, and she countered by attacking a vote he cast against emergency loans to save Chrysler and General Motors. What happens in cities like Hazel Park, Madison Heights, Dearborn Heights, Dearborn, Allen Park, Melvindale, Lincoln Park, Trenton, Westland, Garden City, Warren, Eastpointe and Saint Clair Shores – strongly Democratic middle class suburbs of Detroit – will reveal who won the argument.