By Zachary Gorchow
President of Michigan Operations
Posted: July 30, 2019 3:43 PM

Welcome, political world to Michigan, hours before 234 20 Democratic presidential candidates debate on national television over the next two nights.

By now, the overarching national narrative about Michigan's critical role in deciding the 2020 presidential election between President Donald Trump and the eventual Democratic nominee goes something like this:

"Macomb County voters will gather in their gritty diners after a day working in the auto factories a couple weeks before the election, ponder the meaning of life and then send out either red or blue puffs of smoke upon determining the direction of the country for the next four years. Also, Shinola. Also, the Packard Plant. Also, the Lions."

The reality is that the outcome in Michigan will be far more complex than what happens in Macomb County.

Yes, the swing of 64,000 votes in Macomb between the victory margin in 2012 of President Barack Obama and the victory margin in 2016 of Mr. Trump was decisive in Michigan, which Mr. Trump won by 10,704 votes. I'm not disputing the importance of Macomb. It is, of course, huge.

But when you have an election that close, many factors are decisive, not just the fabled Reagan Democrats in Macomb. And in 2020, many areas will again be decisive. And given that Michigan, along with Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and possibly Arizona and Iowa, are the states most likely to decide the next president, oversimplifying the outcome does everyone a disservice.

So here we go, the nine areas that will decide Michigan.

1. AFRICAN-AMERICAN VOTERS IN DETROIT: What's an easier hill to climb? Changing the minds of 12,000 Macomb County residents who voted for Mr. Trump in 2016 or convincing 12,000 more African-American voters in a city that generally casts 95 percent of its votes for Democrats to cast ballots this time around? Changing minds is very difficult in today's politics. Motivating base voters, less so.

In 2016, Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton received about 47,000 fewer votes than Mr. Obama in 2012.

But if 2018 is any indication, Detroit voters are far more motivated now. Governor Gretchen Whitmer pulled almost 30,000 more votes out of the city than the 2014 Democratic candidate for governor, Mark Schauer. The 2020 Democratic candidate doesn't need to get all 47,000 2012 voters back, she or he just needs a big chunk of them. It doesn't seem like a big lift.

2. RETAIL CORRIDOR OF OAKLAND AND WESTERN WAYNE: Oakland and Wayne County communities that once voted reliably Republican like Bloomfield Township, Novi, Troy, Livonia, Northville, Northville Township, Plymouth and Plymouth Township are shifting or have shifted quickly to the Democrats. Ms. Clinton carried Oakland by 8 percentage points in 2016. The Democratic nominee will wipe out Mr. Trump's advantage if she or he can come closer to the 16-point margin Ms. Whitmer put up in the county in 2018. The wind should be at the Democrats' backs here.

3. MACOMB: When people talk about the swingyness of Macomb, what they really mean is a handful of communities like Clinton Township, Fraser, Sterling Heights and Saint Clair Shores. Macomb County north of M-59 is solid Republican territory. Places like Warren, Eastpointe, Roseville and Mount Clemens are solid Democratic territory. That Clinton-Fraser-Sterling Heights-Saint Clair Shores quad tends to be the fulcrum on which the county swings. The Democrat doesn't need to win Macomb but cutting the margin of defeat would go a long way toward peeling Michigan away from Mr. Trump.

4. UNIVERSITY TOWNS: Ingham, Kalamazoo and Washtenaw counties – home to Michigan State University, Western Michigan University and the University of Michigan, respectively – turned out massively in 2018 and voted overwhelmingly Democratic. A Democratic candidate needs to stoke those voters – and take advantage of the new same-day voter registration law.

5. TRUMPLAND: The core of Mr. Trump's support in Michigan is along the southern border, in the Thumb, the U.S. 131 corridor in west Michigan north of Grand Rapids, the northeast Lower Peninsula and the Upper Peninsula other than Marquette. These are the areas full of white working-class voters who voted by eye-popping margins for Mr. Trump in 2016. To make up for a more enthused Democratic base, Mr. Trump must get these voters to come out in even greater numbers in 2020 than they did in 2016.

6. THE U.S. 31 CORRIDOR: One of the more surprising developments of 2018 was the vastly improved Democratic performance in the northwest Lower Peninsula, specifically the U.S. 31 corridor. Ms. Whitmer substantially improved over Mr. Schauer's performance in these counties: Benzie (+4.7 percentage points), Leelanau (+18.7 percentage points), Grand Traverse (+17.8 percentage points), Antrim (+7 percentage points), Charlevoix (+8 percentage points) and Emmet (+16.8 percentage points). But these counties, other than Leelanau, went overwhelmingly for Mr. Trump. The Democrat doesn't need to win these counties, but any kind of a significant improvement in margin would be very ominous for Mr. Trump.

7. THIRD PARTY CANDIDATES: The combined vote for Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein was about 20 times the margin separating Mr. Trump and Ms. Clinton. The Democrat needs liberal voters who may not be wild about the Democratic nominee to hold their nose and vote Democratic. Mr. Trump and the Republicans will surely make efforts, both overt and shrouded, to discourage Democratic voters who are less likely to turn out about the Democratic candidate.

8. OBAMA/TRUMP COUNTIES: Another key factor in Mr. Trump's win was he won or performed well above expectations in counties that generally vote Democratic for presidents and are dominated by white working-class voters, counties like Bay, Calhoun, Genesee, Monroe, Muskegon and Saginaw. Flipping these voters back will be difficult.

9. COLLEGE-EDUCATED REPUBLICAN BASTIONS: Mr. Trump narrowly won Kent County in 2016, running well below the base, and the bottom has since fallen out of the county for the GOP in the onetime Republican bastion. Ms. Whitmer improved the Democratic performance in the county by 30 points from 2014. Democrats now hold the Grand Rapids state Senate seat for the first time since the 1970s. Suburbs like Kentwood, East Grand Rapids and Grand Rapids Township are moving to the Democrats.

Then there's Ottawa and Livingston counties, which not long ago would have vied for most Republican county in the state. Mr. Trump will still comfortably win both counties, but the Democratic performance improved considerably in both in 2018. Mr. Trump can ill-afford too much fall-off in counties he won by more than 30 points, but where Ms. Whitmer vastly improved over Mr. Schauer's performance.

Okay, everyone enjoy the debate. Don't forget to keep time with your Shinola watch, enjoy a couple Coney dogs from Lafayette, listen to Eminem and of course lament the Lions (and the Tigers and the Red Wings and the Pistons).