By Zachary Gorchow
President of Michigan Operations
Posted: March 3, 2016 4:25 PM

Most of the presidential candidates are descending on Michigan, but there is not a whole lot of drama headed into Tuesday’s presidential primaries.

Oh sure, perhaps tonight’s Republican debate could produce a surprise and tilt the race in a different direction, but right now the contest is Donald Trump’s to lose. On the Democratic side, it’s hard to envision how U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders (D-Vermont) overcomes former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s overwhelming advantage with African-American voters

The Democratic contest is not officially over, but Ms. Clinton has a substantial delegate lead on Mr. Sanders, and it will be hard for him to catch up though he has the money to stay in the race to the end. And as long as he keeps piling up delegates and winning some states, he probably will.

It is a big difference from four years ago when Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum fought a death match for the ages on the Republican side. There were not many delegates at stake, but Michigan became the optics fulcrum in the Republican nominating contest, and everyone knew it.

Mr. Santorum realized if he could topple Mr. Romney in Mr. Romney’s native Michigan, it would grievously wound the frontrunner. Mr. Romney realized losing could cost him the nomination, so the state was treated to a two-week all-out blitz by both campaigns and their supporters, culminating in a narrow win for Mr. Romney that began the process of putting Mr. Santorum away.

This year, on the Republican side, the turning point in the contest is now the winner-take-all primaries in Florida and Ohio on March 15.

Michigan awards its delegates proportionally, so unless something dramatic changes – and so far there is no sign of that – Mr. Trump will emerge with a win, continuing his momentum and padding his delegate lead.

If, for example, Mr. Trump takes 35 percent to 20 percent each for U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz and U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio and 15 percent for Ohio Governor John Kasich, then Mr. Trump would take about 23 delegates to 13 each for Mr. Cruz and Mr. Rubio and 10 for Mr. Kasich.

With Mr. Trump, according to The Associated Press’ delegate count, leading now with 319 delegates to 226 for Mr. Cruz, 110 for Mr. Rubio and 25 for Mr. Kasich, that won’t fundamentally alter the current trajectory of the race.

But should Mr. Kasich win his native Ohio and Mr. Rubio win his native Florida, that would mean 66 additional delegates for Mr. Kasich and 99 for Mr. Rubio. That would still leave them well behind Mr. Trump, but it could mean that Mr. Trump cannot reach the 1,237 pledged delegates needed to win on the first ballot at the Republican National Convention.

If Mr. Trump wins those states, he would potentially knock both from the race and be well on his way to the magic 1,237 threshold with only Mr. Cruz remaining to stop him.

National media reports already indicate millions of ad buys taking place in Florida, where polls show Mr. Rubio far behind Mr. Trump, with plans to bombard Mr. Trump with negative ads. Mr. Kasich is in better shape in Ohio, but the race is essentially a toss-up there, and Mr. Kasich will have to count on his strong organization to put him over the top.

Most Republicans watching the Michigan race say the only thing that really matters is getting to 15 percent, the minimum needed to qualify for delegates. So if Mr. Kasich were to fall short of 15 percent, then a 35 percent finish would get Mr. Trump about 27 delegates with Mr. Cruz and Mr. Rubio each taking about 16. No one would especially benefit, but Mr. Kasich would lose out significantly.

Mr. Cruz seems content to get his 15 percent to 20 percent and try to win other states. He released a campaign schedule through Saturday that puts him in five states, none of which are named Michigan.

So the candidates are here, stumping and campaigning, at least for a day or two between now and Tuesday. But the race is not really here. To find it, take I-75 south.