By Zachary Gorchow
Executive Editor and Publisher
Posted: October 29, 2014 1:39 PM

One of the fun aspects about tracking the race for control of the Michigan House is that a week out from the election, there’s almost always a wide range of potential outcomes, and this year is no different.

Republicans now control the House 59-50 with one independent. But for the purposes of this election, think of it as 59-51 because that independent represents a solidly Democratic district and will be replaced in 2015 by a Democrat.

Today, we’ll look at the best potential Democratic scenario and Thursday, the Republicans’ best-case outcome.

Mid-terms are generally tough sledding for Democrats in the Michigan House. In the term limits era, from 1998 to the present, Republicans have averaged a gain of six seats. Democrats did gain seats in one of those elections, 2006, but that was a year when the top of the Democratic ticket won in blowouts and there was a huge national tide against President George W. Bush and the Republican-led Congress.

Those dynamics are not in place this year. But it’s also not shaping up as the bloodbath of 2010 when Republicans won everything and gained a stunning 20 seats in the House.

Even in the best Democratic scenario, they are going to lose a seat, the 84th House District in the Thumb, where term limits prevents Rep. Terry Brown (D-Pigeon) from running again for the Republican-leaning seat. That means Democrats will have to flip six other now GOP seats to gain control – and keep all their other seats.

So what is the best-case Democratic scenario? Number one, other than the 84th, they have to keep all their existing seats, and that is going to be tough. Republicans are coming after four Democratic incumbents in a big way – Rep. Theresa Abed of Grand Ledge, Rep. Winnie Brinks of Grand Rapids, Rep. Collene Lamonte of Montague and Rep. Henry Yanez of Sterling Heights.

And a fifth seat, the 62nd District in Battle Creek and environs, is under major pressure with Rep. Kate Segal (D-Battle Creek) unable to run again because of term limits. Republicans have a strong candidate although the seat leans Democratic.

But it is possible through incumbency and the Democratic base in Battle Creek that the Democrats could keep all five. Can they gain six seats? Now that looks very difficult.

There are two seats where Democrats stand a great chance thanks to Republican candidate miscues, the 56th District in Monroe County and the 61st District in southwest Kalamazoo County, both of which have no incumbent running. Democrats are well-positioned in the 41st District in Troy against first-term Rep. Martin Howrylak (R-Troy). That’s probably their third best-bet for a pick-up. A fourth possibility is unseating first-term Rep. Klint Kesto (R-Commerce Township) although he is in better shape than Mr. Howrylak.

After that? Well, that’s where it gets tough. The remaining seats either feature Democrats trying to win districts that lean Republican, have a Republican incumbent seeking a third term, or both.

The significance of trying to oust a first-term incumbent vs. a second-term incumbent is big. Since term limits started, 19 incumbents have lost re-election in the general election, and only four were second-term incumbents (one of whom was undermined by redistricting, another was suffering from cancer that would lead to her death not long after the election and a third fell into scandal in his second term).

But there just are not many competitive seats with no incumbent or a first-term Republican incumbent, and to get to majority, Democrats have to take a shot at a few “veterans” (in the term limits era, two terms in the House makes someone a veteran).

Democrats are targeting Rep. Patrick Somerville (R-New Boston), Rep. Ray Franz (R-Onekama), Rep. Ben Glardon (R-Owosso), Rep. Kevin Cotter (R-Mount Pleasant), Rep. Peter Pettalia (R-Presque Isle) and maybe Rep. Ed McBroom (R-Vulcan) out of necessity.

Then there are five open seats in traditionally Republican areas where Democrats think they could catch a break thanks to strong Democratic candidates, weak Republican ones, or both.

The two where Democrats seem the most encouraged, based on where they are spending money, are the 43rd District in Oakland County and the 104th District in Grand Traverse County. In both cases, there are Republican candidates getting outspent and strong Democratic candidates working hard.

However, in all five of these seats, the Republican base is anywhere from 55 to 59 percent. That is a steep hill for any Democrat, no matter how strong, to climb, especially in a mid-term cycle.

Just winning one of these 11 races against second-term GOP incumbents or in Republican territory, especially with the overall dynamics, would be a major triumph.

That’s why it’s hard to see Democrats doing any better than 55 seats next Tuesday. The Democrats would surely take that. It would mean a 55-55 split, shared power and the ability to put the brakes on the Republican agenda.