By Zachary Gorchow
President of Michigan Operations
Posted: July 16, 2014 2:55 PM

There were two shocking numbers out of the 4th U.S. House District Republican primary race Tuesday.

23 and 1,354,140.

The 23 is for 23 percentage points, the lead that business executive Paul Mitchell of Thomas Township has in his first bid for elected public office over state Sen. John Moolenaar of Midland, according to a poll commissioned by the Detroit Free Press and WXYZ-TV and conducted by EPIC/MRA.

The 1,354,140 is for $1,354,140, the amount of money by which the wealthy Mr. Mitchell outspent Mr. Moolenaar through June 30, based on campaign finance reports the campaigns filed Tuesday.

Captain Obvious time: These two numbers are related.

When U.S. Rep. Dave Camp (R-Midland) decided not to seek re-election, several legislators considered running, but bowed to what seemed inevitable: an unstoppable bid by Mr. Moolenaar. Personable, a strong fundraiser and the clear heir to the Midland dynasty in the district begun by now-Attorney General Bill Schuette and then Mr. Camp, Mr. Moolenaar was the clear front-runner.

Mr. Mitchell’s bid at first seemed a potential complication, but a longshot considering he was totally unknown while Mr. Moolenaar has served in the Legislature for 10 of the past 12 years. But then Mr. Mitchell made it clear he was not messing around when he hired top Republican political staff.

And then Mr. Mitchell began heavily airing television commercials, first introducing himself and then later blasting Mr. Moolenaar as a faux conservative, the latter charge being a smart political tactic for a Republican primary yet mind-boggling to anyone who has observed Mr. Moolenaar in the Legislature.

Through it all, it seemed while Mr. Mitchell was making it a race, that it was still Mr. Moolenaar’s to lose. Now it seems Mr. Moolenaar waited far too long to confront the Mitchell threat.

It is hard to see Mr. Mitchell’s lead evaporating, but given how unknown he was until a couple months ago, his numbers should be malleable. And Mr. Moolenaar still has two trump cards: Mr. Schuette and Mr. Camp. Both are beloved figures among Republicans in that part of the state, and putting them on television and in direct mail backing Mr. Moolenaar could move the numbers in a hurry.

Otherwise, the Midland Dynasty is history.