By Elena Durnbaugh
Assistant Editor
Posted: August 14, 2023 11:44 AM

Democrats are doing the math on the likelihood of a 54-54 split in the House following the November general election following the success of Rep. Kevin Coleman and Rep. Lori Stone in local primaries.

Coleman (D-Westland) and Stone (D-Warren) are running for mayor in their respective hometowns, and both took second place in their primary elections last week.

Should both get elected mayor, there would be a period of perhaps six weeks at the start of 2024 when the House would be split 54-54. Democrats would still hold the gavel and control under the House rules but would be unable to pass anything without at least one Republican vote until a Democrat would presumably succeed Coleman, who would take office in mid-November, in his safely Democratic seat and give them a 55-54 majority until Stone's replacement was elected several weeks later.

Coleman came in second with 41 percent of the vote to current Interim Mayor Mike Londeau, who took 44 percent of the vote. Stone, who won 27.7 percent of the vote, took second place to Warren Human Resources Director George Dimas, who won more than 33 percent of the vote.

Coming out of the primary, Coleman said he felt good about his chances to win the mayor's seat in November (See Gongwer Michigan Report, August 7, 2023).

"There's only a 300-vote difference between the two of us that made it through, and any time you get above 40 percent in a six-way primary, you're doing something right," he said. "The majority of voters voted for change."

In a statement, Londeau said he was honored to receive the highest number of votes in the primary.

"This resounding victory is a testament to the progress we have made and our plans for an even brighter future. The trust and support I have received from the citizens of Westland inspires me to work even harder to serve our community," he said. "We've started a journey towards a brighter future for Westland. This achievement is a testament to our shared vision for progress. Let's continue to build momentum and create positive change."

Londeau also extended his appreciation to the other candidates.

"Your commitment to our community and democratic process is commendable," he said. "Let's continue working together for a brighter future for our city. Thank you for your efforts and passion."

Coleman said he spoke with House Speaker Joe Tate (D-Detroit) and people from Governor Gretchen Whitmer's team about his plans to run for local office early into the term.

"We've all chatted about it, and the understanding is that a special election will be called as soon as possible," he said. "That way, it would be a short window."

Because Westland is holding a special election, the candidate who wins in November will take office upon certification of the election.

Coleman said that if he should win the mayor's seat, it would be important to him that Westland still have good representation in the House.

"While I'd be laser focused on being mayor, I would still have an interest in making sure that we elect a great person to fill my shoes and advocate for Westland and our district because that's super important," he said.

The 25th District is a safe Democratic seat, so Coleman said he isn't concerned about his party losing the majority.

"That kind of narrative is really not realistic because we lean so heavily towards the Democratic side of the aisle that's not going to happen," he said. "It's just making sure it's the right person."

Stone's seat in the 13th District is similarly safe for Democrats.

Coleman said his sense was that if he wins in November, his seat would only be vacant for a few months and that the same would be true of Stone's seat if she wins the mayoral election in Warren.

"My understanding is leadership looked at it from a legal standpoint," he said. "So, there's not that concern that leadership or committees would be affected."

The possibility of a 54-54 split isn't as big of a deal for Democrats as it could have been, said Josh Pugh, senior director of public affairs at Truscott Rossman.

"The speaker wrote the rules so that he and the Democrats retain control of the gavel at 54-54," he said. "They don't need 56 to retain the current set of House rules and Republicans have no way to get to a majority, so there's nothing that would threaten that. So, when it comes to controlling the agenda, which is the first and most important reward of majority, nothing is threatened."

The only real question is how a potential 54-54 split could delay Democratic priorities, but Coleman said that challenge would be easily solved by a quick turnaround on a special election.

"We would still have the better part of a year in 2024 to legislate," he said. "And I think good things come to those who wait."

Pugh agreed, saying that if both Coleman and Stone win, the question for Democrats would be how to advance their agenda without any Republican votes.

"The first six months of session were extraordinarily productive and really making up for lost time in passing things that weren't necessarily red meat for Democrats, but were certainly things that Republicans, when they were in the majority, had no real interest in," he said, citing the implementation of Proposal 2 and spending the state's budget surplus. "The question is going to be now, what are those bipartisan areas of agreement?"

Pugh said that in the first half of this legislative term the Republican caucus held together as a 54-vote block to gain leverage, but that calculus might change.

"The thing about leverage is that it doesn't just apply to the 54 members of the Republican caucus as a block," he said. "It can be used by individual members as well."

If the House finds itself in an even 54-54 split, Pugh said Republican members would be faced with the question of how much they cared about supporting a bill or solving an issue and secondarily if they could get something out of Democrats in return for their vote.

"It's crass, but that could be a calculation," he said.

Coleman said that he chose to run for mayor in Westland because that's where his heart is.

"It's about where can I serve best to be most impactful," he said. "Westland has a ton of need. The lowest amount of public safety staff that we've ever had, so crime is an issue. Economic development is an issue because we have vacant commercial property all over town. And the status que hasn't done anything to improve that."

Despite his campaign for mayor, Coleman said he's still focused on representing his community well at the state level.

"I love representing my district and my community, and I'm going to work even harder as we go forward," he said. "On both ends of things."

The likelihood of the 54-54 split might not be as high as everyone is expecting, though, Pugh said.

"Voters may seem a little ill-tempered right now with politics and with their current representatives, but that doesn't really extend to the local level," he said. "When you have someone locally who's a known entity and has a demonstrated track record, voters oftentimes like that and want to stick with that known entity."

That could complicate Coleman's efforts to unseat the interim mayor. Stone might have an easier path to winning her election because everyone in Warren has an opinion about current Mayor Jim Fouts (See Gongwer Michigan Report, August 7, 2023).

"She, in many ways, is running against the ghost of Jim Fouts, where Rep. Coleman has to run against a little bit more stability and competency and that's always a little bit more stability and competency and that's always difficult," Pugh said. "If there's even an implication of incumbency, you have to convince voters to vote against that before you even start talking to them about why to support you as an alternative."

Neither Stone nor Dimas returned a request for comment last week.

If either Stone or Coleman win their local races, the gameplan for Democrats should be to have them stepdown immediately, Pugh said.

"The clock doesn't start until they do that," he said. "There are a number of procedural hurdles … but you can be sure that the governor will move swiftly to make sure that voters have a chance to be represented in the State House in Westland and Warren."

Regardless of what happens in November, Pugh said the Democratic majority will likely continue to move quickly when they return in the fall.

"Even if both of these representatives lose and you have a two-seat majority for the next 18 months, that's only 18 months, and nothing is assured," he said. "It's still a narrow majority, and nothing is assured. It's still a narrow majority, and we often have representatives who leave their seats for unexpected reasons, not just local elections. And so, you have to govern like there's no tomorrow."