By Zachary Gorchow
President of Michigan Operations
Posted: November 9, 2021 4:05 PM

Majority House Republicans are about to enter a stretch where they have no margin for error and in effect need every one of their members to pass legislation.

Republicans began the 2021-22 term with a 58-52 majority over the Democrats.

Now they are, for all practical purposes, down to 54 members.

Rep. Andrea Schroeder (R-Independence Township) died in October. Rep. Mark Huizenga (R-Walker) and Rep. Douglas Wozniak (R-Shelby Township) won special elections to the Senate last week and will resign their House seats in a matter of days. Those three vacancies, plus the upcoming resignation of Rep. Abdullah Hammoud (D-Dearborn) to become Dearborn mayor, will drop the House to 55 Republicans and 51 Democrats.

At 106 members, 54 yes votes are required to pass bills.

Then there is Rep. Steve Marino (R-Harrison Township), who has disappeared since the revelation of his sending threatening text messages to Rep. Mari Manoogian (D-Birmingham), who obtained a personal protection order against him. Unless and until Mr. Marino reappears on the House floor, Republicans are in the difficult position of needing all other members to be present and voting for a bill to assure passage, unless it's a bill that has some Democratic support.

This explains why Republicans are anxious for Governor Gretchen Whitmer to call special elections, so anxious even that they were asking her to call the special elections even though three of the four seats were not yet vacant, meaning she had no power to do so.

The Constitution requires the governor to call special elections to fill legislative vacancies but does not provide a timetable for the election to occur after the vacancy, giving the governor discretion.

There is an example of what Ms. Whitmer did after an odd-year election produced a legislative vacancy. In November 2019, then-Rep. Sheldon Neeley won the Flint mayor's race. A solidly Democratic seat, Ms. Whitmer wasted no time filling it, setting the special primary for January 7, 2020, and the special general election for March 10.

However, when the late Rep. Isaac Robinson, who also held a solidly Democratic seat, died in March 2020, the governor opted to do what the last two governors often did: time the special election to coincide with the regular election. The special primary was in August and the special general election was held in November. The seat was vacant for about eight months.

The disadvantage of calling a special election when no other elections are occurring is the local governments in the district have to pay for it (though House Speaker Jason Wentworth made a point of saying the state should cover the costs in these cases), but the disadvantage of waiting for regular elections is residents of those districts go without representation for longer.

After the late U.S. Rep. John Conyers Jr. resigned, then-Governor Rick Snyder used the regular election schedule for the special election, resulting in the seat sitting vacant for 11 months.

There's another unique disadvantage this year to timing the special election with the regular elections: redistricting. Clerks would have to run the special election for one set of communities while running the full-term election for another. In 2012, a similar situation led to David Curson winning a partial U.S. House term and serving all of seven weeks even as Kerry Bentivolio won the full term.

The last time vacancies played this much havoc with a House majority was in 1993 when the House – then split 55-55 – saw two vacancies resulting from Democratic members winning mayor's races in their hometowns. A third vacancy occurred after a Democratic member resigned as part of the House Fiscal Agency scandal.

While Republicans held the majority and gained a major advantage to pass their bills, the shared power rules agreed to by House Democrats and Republicans at the opening of the term meant they could not reorganize the House under their sole control unless they reached 56 seats.

Then-Governor John Engler set a special primary election for March 15, 1994 – timed with the statewide election for Proposal A – and a special general election for April 26.

It should be noted that Ms. Whitmer herself benefitted from a swift special election. In 2005, then-Sen. Virg Bernero won the Lansing mayor's race. Then-Governor Jennifer Granholm scheduled a special primary for February 21, 2006, and a special general election for March 14. Ms. Whitmer virtually walked into the seat.

Ms. Whitmer has an interesting decision to make. She could make life harder on the Republican majority by waiting to fill the vacancies. It's difficult to imagine Republicans would not retaliate in some way if she does so. Or the governor could swiftly schedule special elections and hope that creates some goodwill that carries over to other issues. Similar hopes that have accompanied past agreements with Republicans did not pan out.