By Zachary Gorchow
Executive Editor and Publisher
Posted: January 17, 2013 2:40 PM

For the first time in a while, Governor Rick Snyder is going to have to find a way to put together a healthy number of votes from both the Democratic and Republican caucuses in the House to pass a controversial issue, his road funding plan.

For most of his first two years, Mr. Snyder could simply rely on the big Republican majority to pass his agenda (63-47 for most of the last term, 59-51 now). But his inability to find a bipartisan accord in the House sank his plan for a state-run health insurance exchange, and without a broad coalition, his road funding plan will suffer the same fate.

Let’s take a look at just how narrow a path Mr. Snyder has to 56 votes. This is all hypothetical, but based on traditional legislative behavior.

For starters, let’s presume no House member in a politically competitive district from either party eligible to run for re-election will vote yes for fear of getting blasted with it in the 2014 election. That’s potentially 20 votes off the table, leaving 90 available.

Now let’s remove the names of those potentially running for the Senate in 2014, either in a safe Republican seat where a vote to raise taxes could cause problems in a Republican primary, or in a seat competitive in the general election. That’s another potential 10 votes lost, taking the number of available votes down to 80.

Next there are the Republicans whose anti-tax record is so staunch is it difficult to envision them voting for the legislation. That could be as many as another 15 off the table, taking potential available votes down to 65, with 37 of those Democrats and the remaining 28 Republicans.

That is a very narrow path to 56 votes.

Past speakers have built this type of coalition. Former House Speaker Andy Dillon did it several times by combining his Democratic allies with most of the minority Republican caucus to pass various budget issues. Former House Speaker Rick Johnson did so with his Republican allies and the minority Democratic caucus to raise the cigarette tax and pass fee increases.

And it certainly could be done here. But Democrats are already signaling that the broad framework of Mr. Snyder’s plan is unacceptable. Additionally, Democrats are building a narrative for the 2014 campaign against Mr. Snyder that he has pushed the tax burden from corporations onto individuals. A deal on transportation revenues could cost them a potent issue.

For Republicans who swallowed hard and voted for the 2011 tax overhaul, agreeing to support increasing the income tax burden on many individuals because the bill also fulfilled their top goal of ending the Michigan Business Tax, Mr. Snyder has no such carrot to offer this time.