By Zachary Gorchow
Executive Editor and Publisher
Posted: March 5, 2020 5:29 PM

There were many amazing factors surrounding U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders' upset 2016 victory in the Michigan Democratic presidential primary, and one of them was he did it while losing Genesee, Macomb, Oakland, Saginaw and Wayne counties to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

If you were to ask any Michigan Democrat can you win a statewide Democratic primary without victory in those counties, they would have laughed you right out of the state.

So as Mr. Sanders and Vice President Joe Biden face their first major head-to-head contest in Michigan next week, it's worth remembering that Mr. Sanders has a path to victory in this state that doesn't include the Detroit area even if it comes out strongly for Mr. Biden as it likely will.

But it's also worth noting that in the 18 states that have voted so far, Mr. Sanders' percentages are down, in some cases considerably, from what he pulled in 2016. Clearly much of that is because of the more crowded field.

Still, he went from more than 60 percent of the vote in New Hampshire in 2016 to 25.6 percent in 2020. In Oklahoma, Mr. Sanders took 52 percent of the vote in 2016 and won. This week, he got just 25 percent and lost. He won 41 percent in North Carolina in 2016. This week, he took 24 percent.

Remember, Mr. Sanders narrowly won Michigan in 2016, 49.8 percent to 48.3 percent. If he sees the kind of falloff in Michigan that he is seeing in other states, that portends trouble.

The county I would watch as far as Mr. Sanders' statewide fortunes is Kent County.

Mr. Sanders routed Ms. Clinton there in 2016, 62.5 percent to 37.3 percent. His annihilation of Ms. Clinton in Grand Rapids proper was especially jarring. That commanding performance in Kent County powered Mr. Sanders to landslide wins in the 2nd and 3rd U.S. House Districts, which was a big boost to his delegate haul. Ms. Clinton crushed Mr. Sanders in the U.S. House districts based in Detroit that are delegate-rich, so the margins for Mr. Sanders outstate helped assure he took more delegates out of Michigan than Ms. Clinton.

Will Kent go for Mr. Sanders again?

What is interesting is that Mr. Biden in the past week has run well in suburban areas with higher-income voters and voters with bachelor's degrees. There's a lot of voters who fit that profile in Kent County, a onetime Republican bastion that is quickly pivoting Democratic.

It's no accident that Mr. Sanders has scheduled a Grand Rapids stop before Tuesday's primary. He campaigned there four years ago while Ms. Clinton focused on Detroit, and the area rewarded him with a big win.

Mr. Biden is expected to make a Detroit stop. It's unclear if he has any other campaign destinations in mind.

There's a lot of talk that Mr. Biden could inflict major damage on Mr. Sanders if he beats him in Michigan, a state that was critical to Mr. Sanders staying in the race against Ms. Clinton four years ago.

One clear way to score that win is to beat Mr. Sanders in Kent County. Not only would it cost Mr. Sanders vital delegates, the symbolic blow would be significant.