The Gongwer Blog

Playing The What-If Game On The Presidential Race

By Zachary Gorchow
Executive Editor and Publisher
Posted: February 11, 2020 8:45 PM

It appears Iowa and New Hampshire have unofficially reached the point where Democrats have realized en masse, "Hey, why are we giving these two small, mostly white states that are wholly out of step with the modern coalition of our party outsized influence in choosing our nominee for president?"

One can almost hear longtime former U.S. Sen. Carl Levin ranting "I told you so" in the wake of Iowa's third quadrennial meltdown in eight years. He waged a failed battle for years to break the Iowa/New Hampshire stranglehold on the nominating process. Except I don't think Mr. Levin rants and I'm not sure "I told you so" is in his vocabulary. Maybe he would just look down sternly over his spectacles.

As has been discussed ad nauseum, Iowa and New Hampshire are both mostly white, rural states. The modern Democratic Party depends on the support of African-American, Latino and other non-white voters as well as voters who live in big cities, large suburbs and increasingly have bachelor's degrees.

The Democratic presidential candidates spent a fortune in time and resources building organization and support in Iowa in hopes of winning the state's cockamamie caucuses, and to what end? No clear winner and controversy over the Iowa Democratic Party's Keystone Kops process, which is a shame given how many activists and candidates poured their hearts and souls – and wallets – into the mess. There's some thought that perhaps the eventual Democratic nominee could flip the state from President Donald Trump, but it seems like a long shot.

What if the two parties collectively agreed it is time for change, time to pick states more representative of the nation at large? What if the two parties, recognizing that the Great Lakes region is the fulcrum on which the Electoral College and the presidency turns, picked new states to lead off the sweepstakes? What if they realized that having one state go first makes absolutely no sense, that to do so leaves out huge swaths of their party's voters?

What if both parties agree to a Great Lakes primary with Michigan, Ohio, Indiana, Wisconsin and Illinois leading off the voting with the 2024 cycle?

These states cover it all. There's big cities – Chicago, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Detroit, Indianapolis and Milwaukee. There's agriculture. There's suburbs and exurbs. There's industry. There's retail. There's Catholics, Baptists, Protestants, Jews, Muslims, Christian Reformed, Mormons, Hindus and virtually every religion. There's whites, African-Americans, Latinos and a rainbow of people. There's big universities. There's international trade. There's forestland. There's bustling areas. There are areas left behind. There's small towns. There's even, kind of, mountains with the Porcupine Mountains. Okay, that's a bit of a reach (sorry Mount Arvon).

Two of these states are purple – Michigan and Wisconsin. One is purplish leaning red – Ohio. One is bright blue – Illinois. One is bright red – Indiana.

A regional primary to open up the voting would be epic. Candidates would spend a full year crisscrossing the five states and building infrastructure that would carry over into the general election for Michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin. The close proximity of the states would ease costs.

Yes, Iowa and New Hampshire conjure stark memories. Jimmy Carter using Iowa to come from nowhere in 1976. Ronald Reagan giving his "I paid for this microphone" speech to wrest momentum in 1980 from George H.W. Bush and win New Hampshire. Bill Clinton's "last dog dies" speech to "win" second place in 1992 and start his comeback. John McCain's rout of George W. Bush in New Hampshire in 2000 that extended the Republican nomination fight. Barack Obama's history-making win in Iowa in 2008. Donald Trump's 2016 New Hampshire win that showed, after his Iowa loss, he was for real.

But in the year 2020, are we really going to continue relying on people congregating in gymnasiums for hours if they happen to be physically strong enough and not in need of child care to choose the major party presidential nominees? Are we really going to continue to wait with bated breath for the 10 voters of Dixville Notch, New Hampshire, to set early opinions about how the New Hampshire primary is going?

The parties will have big questions to answer once this election cycle ends.

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