By Zachary Gorchow
President of Michigan Operations
Posted: November 28, 2018 3:34 PM

Thirty-two of the 110 races for the Michigan House were decided by less than 16 percentage points.

There are lessons to be learned. Let's go through them in order of biggest to smallest victory margin.

101st: From 2006-14, this district stretching from Ludington to Northport produced some of the closest races in the state. Then in 2016, it edged more Republican. Now, after Republican Rep.-elect Jack O'Malley of Lake Ann routed Democrat Kathy Wiejaczka of Empire by 15.38 percentage points despite a pretty substantial Democratic investment, it's off the board for the foreseeable future. This is a Republican seat.

44th: Yes, that's right, the solidly Republican and heretofore ignored seat in northwest Oakland County won by tea party favorite Rep.-elect Matt Maddock of Milford by 15.06 percentage points was actually closer than the 101st (editor's note: Mr. Maddock's hometown has been corrected). It's a long ways away from being competitive though.

50th: Rep. Tim Sneller (D-Burton) boosted his victory margin nicely in 2018 to 14.36 percentage points, quieting concerns after a closer than expected 2016 win that this seat was vulnerable to the GOP.

30th: Macomb County from M-59 north is a no-go zone for Democrats. Rep. Diana Farrington (R-Utica) clobbered her no-name Democratic opponent by 13.72 points.

66th: This seat in Van Buren and northern Kalamazoo counties, while in the top 30, has many, many miles to go before a Democrat has a chance. Rep. Beth Griffin (R-Mattawan) won by 13.64 percentage points.

40th: It's incredible to think a seat never before held by a Democrat was won by Rep.-elect Mari Manoogian (D-Birmingham) by 13.1 percentage points.

43rd: House Republicans figured better safe than sorry on this seat in Independence and Waterford townships in Oakland County, deciding to spend money on it, and Republican Andrea Schroeder (R-Clarkston) took care of business with a 13.04 percentage point win. That's nowhere near the typical GOP victory margin but, after all that went wrong in Oakland County for Republicans, that's still solid.

96th: Emblematic of the Democratic problems in white working-class areas other than the inner ring suburbs of Detroit, this longtime Democratic bastion based in Bay City was the 24th closest race with Rep. Brian Elder (D-Bay City) winning re-election by 13.02 percentage points. One wonders if Republicans will take a long look at it in 2022 when Mr. Elder can't run again because of term limits. The trendlines are moving in the GOP's favor.

23rd: One of the few white working-class districts still held by a Democrat and impressively so after Rep. Darrin Camilleri (D-Brownstown Township) narrowly won two years ago but prevailed by 12.52 percentage points this time.

39th: Jennifer Suidan's embezzlement scandal turned this potential Democratic flip into a 11.87 percentage point rout for the Republican, Rep.-elect Ryan Berman of Commerce Township. Given the changing dynamics in Oakland County, Democrats are likely to go after Mr. Berman in 2020, but it's no slam dunk. Governor-elect Gretchen Whitmer did carry this seat, 52.6 percent to 45.2 percent over Republican Bill Schuette, but a better comparison might be the 15th Senate District race where Sen.-elect Jim Runestad (R-White Lake) carried the territory in the 39th over Democrat Julia Pulver of West Bloomfield, 51.2 percent to 48.8 percent. Ms. Pulver lives in the 39th, incidentally, and could be a logical candidate for the Democrats against Mr. Berman if she's interested. In any case, this district relies heavily on Commerce Township, which remains reliably GOP territory (Mr. Schuette beat Ms. Whitmer there).

91st: It's hard to believe this onetime 50-50 seat has shifted so much to the GOP, but Republican Rep.-elect Greg VanWoerkom's 11.46 percentage point win was eye-popping. All will be watching what happens to this district in the 2021 reapportionment where it won't take much change to put Democrats back in the game. Mr. VanWoerkom is likely to get a free pass in 2020, however.

79th: This longtime Republican bulwark in northern Berrien County was won by Rep.-elect Pauline Wendzel (R-Watervliet) by a relatively low 11.36 percentage points. It's too early to anoint this a newly competitive district but it appears in a good Democratic year, like 2012 and 2018, it can produce a closer than expected race.

17th: We're into the top 20. Remember how the 37th District in Farmington/Farmington Hills went from solidly Republican to solidly Democratic in the span of like two election cycles? That appears to be the situation in reverse with this seat in Monroe. Republicans actually drew it to make it more Democratic in a bid to make the neighboring and then more competitive 56th District more Republican. Now the 56th is bright red and the 17th isn't much further behind after Rep. Joe Bellino (R-Monroe) dusted his Democratic opponent by 11.32 percentage points despite a major Democratic effort here.

24th: Again, most of Macomb is terrible for a garden-variety Democrat. Rep. Steve Marino (R-Harrison Township) won by 11.08 percentage points. This seat was drawn to make it much more Republican but one has to question with the Republican environment in the county right now if a more competitive map would change the end result.

94th: This suburban Saginaw district has been off the radar for many years but Republican troubles in college-educated suburbs are starting to rear their head here with Rep.-elect Rodney Wakeman (R-Saginaw Township) posting a 10.98 percentage point win, a little smaller than the GOP victory margin the last time this seat was open in 2012. That's probably not enough to draw Democratic interest but the 2021 reapportionment could completely change the outlook in this seat come 2022.

72nd: One of the bigger surprises on election night was Rep. Steve Johnson (R-Shelbyville) winning his previously solidly Republican seat in parts of Kent and Allegan counties by just 10.3 percentage points, less than half the GOP victory margin six years ago here. Kentwood, where much of the population in this seat is, is shifting blue, especially in response to President Donald Trump. Given what's happening in Kent County, one wonders if Democrats will take a long look at this seat come 2020. If reapportionment in 2021 lops off the Allegan part of the seat, it'll be game-on for sure.

45th: I couldn't figure out why Democrats didn't make a push here in 2018 given the environment in Rochester/Rochester Hills. They clearly weren't high on their candidate. But even still, Rep. Michael Webber's (R-Rochester Hills) winning margin of 10.26 percentage points was closer than many other races where Democrats heavily invested. Ms. Whitmer narrowly won the district over Mr. Schuette. Mr. Webber is out in 2020 because of term limits and this seat will be at the epicenter of the race for House control.

67th: This was surprising, that this Ingham County seat was decided by just 9.79 percentage points when Rep.-elect Kara Hope (D-Holt) was a huge favorite and with Ingham going so heavily to the Democrats overall. When Rep. Tom Cochran (D-Mason) won this seat in 2012, the last time it was open, he won it by almost 13 points. This one is still out of reach for the GOP, however.

48th: If the Republicans can develop a bench in this northern Genesee County district, look out. A white working-class area that in the Trump era is shifting to the Republicans, Rep.-elect Sheryl Kennedy's 9.66 percentage point margin wasn't as close as Rep. Pam Faris' (D-Clio) was two years ago but it was still the 14th-closest race in the state. This seat may be a few years away from becoming competitive but by then, who knows what it will look like under the 2021 reapportionment.

25th: Rep.-elect Nate Shannon (D-Sterling Heights) prevailed over a fringe Republican candidate by 8.08 percentage points. Given the environment in Macomb, and with Mr. Trump on the ballot in 2020, Mr. Shannon will have to leave nothing to chance when he seeks re-election. A strong Republican candidate, if one can be found, would put this seat in play.

93rd: A onetime Republican bastion in Clinton and Gratiot counties now looks like it could be an emerging competitive seat. Bath and DeWitt, two suburbs north of Lansing, have shifted toward the Democrats, and Rep.-elect Graham Filler (R-DeWitt) winning this seat by just 7.89 points was intriguing. The Republican victory margin here six years ago, the last time it was open, was more than 13 points.

99th: The district based in Isabella County continues to tease the Democrats into going for it only to break their hearts. Rep. Roger Hauck (R-Mount Pleasant) won by a comfortable 6.84 percentage points. Democrats understandably howled years ago when Republicans made the non-Isabella part of this district part of Midland County instead of Clare County (Midland was a Republican bastion and Clare was a 50-50 county). However, with the way the politics of those two counties have shifted, Democrats are better off with the district's current design.

98th: And we're into the top 10. Was Rep.-elect Annette Glenn's (R-Midland) amazingly narrow 4.06 percentage point win a fluke resulting from Consumers Energy pouring more than a million into defeating her husband, Rep. Gary Glenn, who was running for the Senate? Or was it a sign of something more? This race in a longtime stalwart Republican county was closer than the 17th, 91st, 99th and 101st. Let that sink in a second.

62nd: A solid win by Rep.-elect Jim Haadsma (D-Battle Creek), but that it was by 3.7 percentage points signals this district is going to remain a 50-50 type seat for a while. It seems to flip every time it's an open seat.

20th: One of the suburban surge seats for the Democrats with Rep.-elect Matt Koleszar (D-Plymouth) ousting Rep. Jeff Noble (R-Northville) by 2.84 percentage points. With the deep Republican bench in this area and the personal issues that hindered Mr. Noble (his wife had been in and out of the hospital all year), Republicans are likely to give this one a long look in 2020.

61st: Rep. Brandt Iden (R-Oshtemo) prevailed again despite an all-out effort from Democrats to defeat him, this time by 2.74 percentage points. This will be a top battleground come 2020 when Mr. Iden cannot run again because of term limits.

41st: Another suburban surge seat for the Democrats with Rep.-elect Padma Kuppa (D-Troy) winning by 2.64 percentage points. It is weird to see "D-Troy" after a legislator's name. Given everything that was working against the Republicans in this district, the relatively close margin might prompt them to take another shot at it in 2020. Then again, Ms. Kuppa's fundraising strength could scare off potential competitors.

110th: Here's the race most misjudged as we move into the top five. The big shift toward the Republicans in the Upper Peninsula carried Rep.-elect Greg Markkanen (R-Hancock) to an upset 1.64 percentage point victory despite being heavily outspent and essentially abandoned by Republicans. Democrats face a tricky decision here in 2020. The environment with Mr. Trump on the ballot will favor the GOP but it's cheap to play in this district and with the right candidate, who knows? There will, though, be better opportunities.

71st: Rep.-elect Angela Witwer (D-Delta Township) won by a smaller margin than expected following the primary at 1.6 percentage points but her win still confirmed that the trendlines in this district favor the Democrats.

38th: This district in southwest Oakland County went from total nonfactor at the beginning of the year to interesting once Novi City Councilmember Kelly Breen filed to run as a Democrat to wow, this is for real after Rep. Kathy Crawford (R-Novi) struggled to win her primary and Democratic primary turnout exploded. Ms. Crawford hung on for a 1.3 percentage point win, taking less than 50 percent of the vote, but Democrats are surely hoping Ms. Breen runs again in 2020. Republicans are in an interesting spot: they lose the well-known Ms. Crawford to term limits but could see some upside with a younger candidate who can work the doors better. The trendlines here favor the Democrats though.

104th: Democrat Dan O'Neil of Traverse City gave Rep. Larry Inman (R-Williamsburg) everything he could handle but Mr. Inman prevailed by 0.74 percentage points. Is Mr. O'Neil up for taking another shot in 2020 when term limits prevents Mr. Inman from running? He raised incredible money in 2018 and would have a good chance, especially with the demographic changes in Grand Traverse County that have it looking more like a suburban Detroit seat than a northern Michigan district. Republicans lose Mr. Inman, who's an institution in the area with a middle of the road bent, but could see some upside if a more skilled campaigner emerges to run.

19th: And the closest House race of 2018 was the Livonia seat won by Rep.-elect Laurie Pohutsky (D-Livonia) by just 0.48 percentage point. Republicans will surely be back for another try in 2020 given how close this one was and how it was the first time in decades Democrats showed a pulse in this seat. Unlike 2018, whoever the Republican is won't have Laura Cox on the ballot to provide a lift. Of the major races in Livonia in 2018 – governor, secretary of state, attorney general, U.S. Senate, 11th U.S. House District, 7th Senate District and the 19th House District – the only Republican to win the city was Ms. Cox, but she lost her 7th District race overall to Sen.-elect Dayna Polehanki (D-Livonia).