By Christopher Klaver
CIO
Posted: October 18, 2017 3:01 PM

In short, another miracle.

Kerry Bentivolio would argue he got a raw deal from the Republican Party when he was ousted from his seat in 2014 after serving only one term, but he is not likely to convince any party leaders to see the error of their ways. So how does he win the primary?

First, he needs to hold onto nearly every vote he got in the 2014 primary. With the current field of five, he probably needs 20 percent of the vote, plus one. He pulled in about a third of the vote that year.

So far, he has shown that he can hold at least some of his base. That 33.6 percent of the 2014 primary vote was 21,252 individual voters. In the 2016 election, where he ran as an independent, he pulled in 16,610 votes. Of course, that accounted for only 4.4 percent of the general election vote, and he certainly lost some who liked him but could not bring themselves to vote other than Republican.

His struggle in retaining those votes is he ran as the outsider in both 2012 and 2014. This election, he would share that with Lena Epstein, and Ms. Epstein will be much better funded.

It is possible Andrew “Rocky” Raczkowski could chip away at that vote as well. He has been out of elective office for several years and is likely to run toward the right.

His next gambit, then, is to get more people in the race. At least two, Senate Majority Floor Leader Mike Kowall (R-White Lake) and Rep. Michael McCready (R-Bloomfield Hills), are still mulling a run.

More candidates lessens the percent needed to win and brings Mr. Bentivolio’s base closer to a plurality.

Finally, he needs to hope that President Donald Trump can gain support in the district. While Mr. Trump won Oakland County, the Republicans who inhabit the 11th U.S. House District were not overly enamored with him.

Mr. Bentivolio will certainly run as a Trump Republican, and if that becomes the popular position by August 2018, can he then convince voters he is more in Mr. Trump’s mold than former Rep. Kurt Heise and Rep. Klint Kesto (R-Commerce Township), who are likely among the frontrunners at this point because of their elective experience?

Again, without funds to match Ms. Epstein, a fervent Trump supporter, Mr. Bentivolio is not likely to make headway there.

It seems his best bet for taking back the seat at this point would be for all of the other candidates to hire Don Yowchuang to lead their petition drives, a strategy that has worked well for him in the past.