By Zachary Gorchow
Executive Editor and Publisher
Posted: June 28, 2013 11:35 AM

Now that Mike Duggan has changed his mind and decided to wage what can charitably be described as an uphill battle to run as a write-in for Detroit mayor, in hopes of finishing in the top two in the August primary, one side-effect of that decision is to render polling of the race worthless.

Asking someone in a telephone survey if they will write-in Mr. Duggan alongside asking about support for other candidates like Wayne County Sheriff Benny Napoleon, former Rep. Lisa Howze and Rep. Fred Durhal Jr. will fail to yield a true measurement of how many will actually remember to check the write-in box and write in Mr. Duggan’s name.

For proof of that, flash back to the August 2012 primary in which former Sen. Nancy Cassis of Novi mounted a write-in bid for the 11th U.S. House District in an effort to stop Kerry Bentivolio, the gadfly candidate left as the only Republican on the ballot after then-U.S. Rep. Thaddeus McCotter got tossed from the ballot in a petition fraud scandal.

Several media outlets hired the respected polling firm EPIC/MRA, which also polls occasionally for Gongwer News Service, to conduct a survey on the Republican primary between Mr. Bentivolio and Ms. Cassis. The poll showed Ms. Cassis at 52 percent and Mr. Bentivolio at 36 percent and heartened Cassis supporters who thought that she had a chance.

But Mr. Bentivolio, just days after the poll was released, beat Ms. Cassis handily, taking 66.3 percent of the vote to Ms. Cassis’ 33.5 percent, a nearly 20 percent falloff from what she got in the poll.

Maybe that does provide a clue as to how to take a bit – and only a bit – of value out of any polling that does occur between now and the primary. The thinking is Mr. Duggan will need 20 to 25 percent to finish in the top two, so if he is polling at less than 45 percent, it suggests his difficult path to make the general election is nearly closed.