Blog Posts by Zachary Gorchow, Editor

Pondering The Endgame Of Ballot Proposal Raising Corporate Income Tax
Posted: July, 28 2015 2:40 PM

A trio of unions made big news last week with a proposed voter-initiated act to raise the Corporate Income Tax from 6 to 11 percent and put the resulting $900 million in new revenue to roads.

If those unions and other supporters successfully collect at least 252,523 signatures from registered voters, then their proposal will go before the Legislature, which would have 40 days to enact it, approve a competing proposal or do nothing and let it go on the November 2016 ballot.

Once Citizens for Fair Taxes collects those signatures, and given the organizational and financial strength the group has, it likely will, the next actions will be fascinating to watch.

While there is no doubt that Democrats, unions and liberals remain incensed at how the 2011 tax changes reduced the amount of direct state taxation on business activity to almost nothing (the CIT raises about $900 million, but refunds paid out under the old Michigan Business Tax almost wipe out that revenue), this proposal is not happening in a vacuum.

No. 1, conservatives are in the process of collecting signatures to bring a voter-initiated act before the Legislature to repeal the prevailing wage law where all state construction projects pay union scale wages for that area. And No. 2, the discussions on road funding in the Legislature remain almost wholly contained within the Republican majority leadership with Democrats on the outside looking in.

When House Democrats proposed increasing the CIT to 9 percent as part of a road funding plan, House Republicans laughed them off.

Right now, Democrats have no leverage on the issue and are powerless to stop the prevailing wage repeal once it lands in front of the Legislature. The Senate already has passed a repeal, so the votes there seem assured, and House Republicans have made it a caucus priority, making passage there seem likely.

But if Citizens for Fair Taxes gets the signatures it needs, what happens then? Now the Democrats would have some leverage.

Would business groups, fearing the possibility that the voters would flock to a tax increase on businesses, be willing to deal to get the proposal dumped?

Could that mean an agreement to shelve the prevailing wage repeal in exchange for shelving the business tax hike?

Could that mean that business, similar to what has happened on the minimum wage in the past, would grudgingly accept a smaller increase to the CIT as part of a roads solution to see the ballot proposal shelved?

Recall that twice liberal activists have sought to increase the minimum wage via voter initiated act and both times Republican majorities in the Legislature decided to raise the minimum wage by a lesser amount on their own to ward off the more generous proposals.

And might the specter of a 5 percentage point business tax increase be what finally forces the Legislature to agree upon a solution to the road funding question?

Business groups, as would be expected, unleashed a torrent of criticism on the proposal.

The question they will have to decide sometime in the late fall or early winter is whether the risk of voters passing the proposal is too great and instead strike a deal of some sort or take their chances and go all-in to defeat it at the polls.

Democratic Activist/Strategist Ken Brock Has Died
Posted: July, 24 2015 12:23 PM

The outpouring of grief since word spread Thursday that longtime top Democratic strategist Ken Brock had died at the age of 55 has been immense.

In almost 17 years of following Michigan government and politics, I can only recall one other death that left so many so sad and that was when former Rep. Frank Fitzgerald, a Grand Ledge Republican, died, also at a young age. Then, as now, the tributes and grief were heartfelt and from those of both major political parties.

Given that, I thought it appropriate to make public the obituary Gongwer News Service published Thursday for subscribers, written by John Lindstrom. That follows in a bit.

First, I also wanted to include a link to an old story former Gongwerian Chris Gautz shared today that he wrote for the Jackson Citizen-Patriot that demonstrates just how honorable Mr. Brock was.

Additionally, one thing that really stood out to me as I looked over the tributes on Mr. Brock’s Facebook page was just how many Democratic activists and strategists he mentored going back to his first years with former U.S. Rep. Howard Wolpe’s campaigns. In sports, one term often mentioned is a “coaching tree” when referring to all the assistants of a high-profile coach who have gone on to become successes on their own.

There clearly was a Ken Brock Tree.

Rest in peace, Ken. Michigan politics will miss you.

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Ken Brock, one of the state’s best-known Democratic activists and campaign strategists who worked with a number of gubernatorial and congressional candidates over his career, died Wednesday night.

A cause of death was not revealed by his family or former U.S. Rep. Mark Schauer, who announced Mr. Brock’s death through social media.

Mr. Brock was 55 but could have argued that he was 13. He was born February 29, 1960, and was, of course, a leap year baby.

He was an Ann Arbor native and studied politics at the Gerald Ford Institute for Public Service at Albion College, where he and Mr. Schauer met.

Mr. Brock was an energetic and passionate Democratic activist, but also able to objectively look at his campaigns and isolate where mistakes may have been made. He could slip in the knife to opponents when necessary, but never seemed to enjoy it. He respected his opponents, and maintained friendships with conservatives and Republicans. He could easily assess and rank the multiplicity of issues that could affect a campaign and explain what effect each could have.

He was the campaign manager for former U.S. Rep. Howard Wolpe’s gubernatorial campaign in 1994. He worked with former U.S. Rep. John Dingell, and when Mr. Schauer won election to the Senate in 2003 became Mr. Schauer’s chief of staff. He then handled Mr. Schauer’s successful U.S. House campaign in 2008, then was Mr. Schauer’s chief of staff in Congress (possibly the only time in his life he regularly wore a tie) and worked on the unsuccessful re-election campaign in 2010.

He was a top strategist on the pro-collective bargaining Proposal 2 of 2012 and then helped on Mr. Schauer’s 2014 gubernatorial campaign.

Always gregarious, Mr. Brock was a big man, who often struggled with his weight, but that seemed to have no effect on his energy or enjoyment of life.

Mr. Brock also mentored many an up-and-coming Democratic strategist, and that community in particular grieved his death.

A memorial will be held, but a date and time have not been set.

One Year Later, Dems Complaint Against Land Stuck In FEC Gridlock
Posted: July, 21 2015 12:29 PM

It was about this time one year ago that a serious question emerged during the U.S. Senate campaign in Michigan about whether the Republican candidate, Terri Land, had accepted a massive illegal contribution to her campaign from her husband, Dan Hibma.

The issue: Ms. Land had contributed $2.9 million in personal funds to her campaign, but based on her financial disclosure statements, virtually all of that income had to have come from Mr. Hibma’s deposits into a checking account jointly controlled by the couple. Federal campaign finance law limits family members to the same $2,600 per election contribution limit as other donors, but this matter fell into something of a gray area.

Ms. Land’s use of the joint checking account to contribute to her campaign would be legal, most campaign finance experts said, as long as Mr. Hibma had a history of making deposits into that account for a wide range of expenses. If Mr. Hibma only began deposits to the account as a way to fund Ms. Land’s campaign, then that could be a problem.

The Michigan Democratic Party filed a complaint with the Federal Election Commission, and Ms. Land’s campaign insisted it had followed the law. Ultimately, Ms. Land lost to now-U.S. Sen. Gary Peters (D-Bloomfield Township) in a landslide, and the matter has mostly been forgotten and disappeared into FEC purgatory

Welcome to the dysfunctional world of the FEC.

The complaint against Ms. Land is hardly the only one in limbo.

Last week, one of the FEC commissioners drafted a memo calling for the commission to set a priority timetable on the many unresolved cases sitting before the panel. There are 78 matters, as the FEC calls them, pending before the commission, 23 of which have been awaiting action for more than a year (and of those 23 five for more than three years and three for more than two years and 15 for more than a year).

“If we are to bring the docket into a respectable condition before the end of the year, and if the decisional rate per meeting remains the same, there will be a need to hold between two or three times more meetings before the end of this year than the number held for the first six months of this year,” Commissioner Steven Walther, a Democrat, wrote in the memo.

The FEC keeps its work on specific cases secret until making a decision, and Mr. Walther’s memo redacts any identifying information about the 78 cases, so there’s no way to tell where Ms. Land’s case stands in the FEC process at this point.

There, incidentally, is a second Michigan Democratic Party complaint pending against Ms. Land, and while less serious, still interesting. This involves the rental payments her campaign had made to her brother-in-law for a pair of huge Ford CXT trucks.

Democrats claimed that perhaps the Land campaign undervalued the trucks and because her brother-in-law already had given her the maximum cash contribution, the supposedly discounted rent the campaign was paying for the trucks amounted to an illegal excess contribution. At the time, the complaint felt like a nitpicking stunt.

Now, almost 11 months later, with the Land campaign having filed several subsequent quarterly statements with no record of further payments to Ms. Land’s brother-in-law – despite insisting during the campaign it was making payments that would be reflected in upcoming statements – it seems very relevant.

The FEC, made up of three Democrats and three Republicans, essentially refuses to police campaign finance where it is rare to see the commissioners of the same party as the accused punish that candidate. With the body split 3-3, unless a bipartisan consensus emerges, nothing happens.

Mr. Walther urged the FEC to prioritize the oldest cases first as a way of ensuring political considerations play no role in clearing the commission’s docket. The commission did not adopt his suggestion, but it appears it will try to meet more than expected for the remainder of the year. The three Republican commissioners said they would support more meetings, but also urged not to put speed ahead of finding the right result.

In the meantime, Ms. Land, the Michigan Democratic Party and dozens of others of complainants and respondents across the country will continue to wait.

Pondering The Voter-Initiated Act Process
Posted: July, 16 2015 11:38 AM

With conservatives turning more and more to the voter-initiated act process as a way of enacting new laws that Governor Rick Snyder opposes, increasingly I wonder what the framers of the 1963 Michigan Constitution were thinking.

In the past, the use of the initiated act process was relatively rare. Now, it’s frequent – laws barring insurance plans from covering abortions without a separate rider and assuring wolf hunting were enacted this way, and a prevailing wage repeal could happen as well. I can’t help but wonder if Mr. Snyder’s continued veto threats of a Religious Freedom Restoration Act could prompt another petition drive on that topic.

The process allows a group to put a law before the Legislature if it can gather a minimum of signatures from registered voters equal to 8 percent of the total vote for governor in the last gubernatorial election.

With enough signatures, the Legislature can enact the law with affirmative votes in both houses. Inaction, or defeat of the measure, means it goes on the next November ballot of an even-numbered year for voters to decide. It is the ability of the Legislature to enact the law that I find puzzling.

Democracy in action, right? A mechanism to allow the people to work directly with their elected representatives to pass a law over the governor’s opposition, right?

Here is what I don’t get, and to be clear, this has nothing to do with the philosophical nature of the recently enacted initiated acts.

The framers of the Constitution essentially made 8 percent of vote for governor equal in power to the governor.

Put another way, the Constitution makes 252,523 voters (8 percent of last year’s total vote for governor) just as powerful as the 1,479,058 voters Mr. Snyder needed to beat Mark Schauer last year (Mr. Snyder received 1,607,399 votes and Mr. Schauer 1,479,057).

Maybe the abacuses available during the last Constitutional Convention in 1961-62 got stuck or something.

Roads: See You In Lame Duck 2016?
Posted: July, 15 2015 11:41 AM

It is hard to envision anything of substance on road funding becoming law anytime soon.

That is hardly news. In the wake of voters rejecting Proposal 15-1 by an overwhelming margin in May, the odds of anything going to Governor Rick Snyder’s desk in short order were virtually nil.

The reasons are simple:

  • The overwhelming anti-tax nature of the House Republican caucus makes any kind of a substantial tax increase extremely difficult;
  • House Democrats, and quietly some Republicans, are sensing 2016 could be a big Democratic year for gains in that chamber and thus the Democrats have zero incentive to do majority Republicans any favors; and
  • Mr. Snyder is unwilling to play hardball with the House Republican majority to get the tax increase he has advocated for almost four years through the chamber.

The Senate has passed a 15-cent per gallon gasoline tax hike and called for shifting more money out of the General Fund to pay for roads and thrown in a sweetener to the anti-tax crowd with a bill that would cut the income tax if the Detroit Tigers win the World Series, Michigan State Quarterback Connor Cook wins the Heisman Trophy and the new “Star Wars” movie grosses $1 billion.

No, actually the income tax would fall for other reasons, but the formula is so ridiculously complex it makes the fictitious scenario above – and believe me, the idea of the Tigers in the World Series right now is fictitious – seem comprehensible by comparison.

So right now, about nine weeks after voters rejected Proposal 1, things stand about where everyone following the issue expected.

The Senate passed a substantial tax increase. The House passed a plan without a substantial tax increase (relying instead on money from the General Fund, cutting business incentives and ending the Earned Income Tax Credit for the working poor). Mr. Snyder is laying low, generally urging action but declining to say publicly what he thinks about the various plans. Those following the issue say Mr. Snyder can live with the Senate plan.

The House sort of returned to session this week to talk privately about the Senate plan and unsurprisingly took no action.

It is even more apparent, as it was immediately after the Senate passed its plan, that (1) the House is nowhere near the 56 votes needed to pass that legislation, (2) there is no obvious path to finding those 56 votes and (3) a compromise between the House and Senate GOP is not near.

The acrimony seen Tuesday between House Democrats and Republicans after Democrats unveiled their plan made clear that Republicans are going it alone and Democrats are just fine with that.

The calendar trudges on relentlessly, and not in a positive way for action on this issue. There is no real deadline to force a final deal anytime soon, and once the calendar turns to 2016, the election year will take hold, and the chances for a tax increase passing the House will decline even further than they are now. That would suggest the next best chance for anything to happen on roads is after the November 2016 election in the lame-duck session.

Sure, there could be a deal yet this year. Maybe Senate Republicans decide even though they took that vote to pass a tax increase, something is better than nothing and cave in favor of a plan more in tune with the House. Maybe Mr. Snyder grows so desperate to claim something, anything on this issue, he does the same. Maybe House Republicans decide they have to raise the gasoline tax in a substantial way to solve the problem. Maybe there is a middle ground upon which the three sides can agree. Maybe House Democrats decide to let the House GOP off the hook and put up votes for a gasoline tax increase.

And maybe the Tigers win the World Series.

Redistricting Proposal Battle Would (Will) Be Epic
Posted: June, 30 2015 1:41 PM

It took about five seconds after the U.S. Supreme Court ruled Monday that commissions independent of state legislatures can draw the boundaries for U.S. House districts for seemingly every Democrat on my Twitter and Facebook feeds to say Michigan needs a ballot proposal to establish such a commission in this state.

And while nothing is definite, it seems highly likely that Democrats, their allies or some other entity will seek to gather the necessary signatures in Michigan for a constitutional amendment putting an independent entity in charge of drawing the lines for not only the U.S. House, but also the Michigan House, Michigan Senate and the Court of Appeals.

For decades, the Michigan Supreme Court produced the maps because no one political party had full control of the Legislature and the governor’s office in the term when redistricting takes place following the census (1961-62, 1971-72, 1981-82, 1991-92, for example). In the 1980s and 1990s, especially, this produced maps that led to fiercely competitive battles for the Michigan House and (gasp) the Michigan Senate.

That all changed in in the 2001-02 term. Republicans controlled the governor’s office and the Legislature, making it the first time in 70 years one party could control the map-making process. The impact on the U.S. House seats was enormous. The state’s delegation went from 10-6 Democratic to 9-6 Republican (though it eventually became 8-7 Democratic for a bit). The impact on the Legislature was more muted initially, with Democrats gaining seats in the Senate in 2002 and 2006, and in the House in 2004, 2006 and 2008 – even controlling the chamber from 2007-10. In 2010, however, the Republican tsunami produced big GOP majorities in both houses.

The 2011 map, also drawn solely by the GOP, has been more solid, though unlike the previous decade that featured a mostly unpopular Republican president for Democrats to use as a foil, there’s now been a mostly unpopular Democratic president, instead helping the GOP cause. Republicans have controlled both houses under the 2011 map.

Democrats can do the math on the next reapportionment in 2021. Even if Democrats elect a governor in 2018 and/or control the House in the 2021-22 term to prevent Republicans from having total control, the odds of the party somehow winning total control of the process are very small because the Michigan Constitution forbids the party from controlling the Senate the 27-11 Republican majority in the Senate is too steep to overcome in 2018.

So that means either Republicans would still have total control or a divided government would lead to an impasse, kicking the issue to the Michigan Supreme Court, which … has a 5-2 majority of justices nominated by the GOP now and will likely still have a GOP majority during the 2021-22 term.

That gives an “independent” entity – and just how any proposal defines independent would be its most important element – much appeal to Democrats and ignites worry among Republicans. The Arizona system, which was before the U.S. Supreme Court, uses a commission with two Democrats, two Republicans and has a chair that is supposed to be a political monk, totally independent of political ties. There are several criteria that the commission has to follow when drawing the maps.

Would the Democratic funders who care enough about this proposal to put millions into it be willing to put up all that money for a process that will likely only improve the party’s chances of legislative control to 50/50?

What kind of maps might an independent commission produce? The most intriguing aspect would be how it would handle the current boundaries, which are a mess that split communities of interest, for the U.S. House in metro Detroit. How would an independent commission maintain two majority-minority districts, as the U.S. Voting Rights Act requires, and clean up those boundaries at the same time?

No district in the state was drawn more weirdly than the 11th District, now held by U.S. Rep. David Trott (R-Birmingham) to maximize Republican voters and prune away Democrats. How would a commission handle that district?

As for the Legislature, the House districts in the Jackson, Port Huron and Battle Creek areas as well as the Senate districts in Genesee County – all carved up to improve Republican chances –could change considerably.

Who would lead the charge on a ballot proposal? That is a delicate matter. The Yes side will have to run a campaign for a proposal that has a political purpose using an apolitical message.

If it is unions and other Democratic interests that push the proposal, and it surely will be, it would make it easier for Republicans and their allies to paint it as a union/”special interest” power play.

The same holds true for the opposition, however. If business interests pour money into the campaign to defeat the proposal, and they surely will, the Yes side will counter that “corporate special interests” are trying to keep their hold on the Capitol.

Nothing is more openly political and ruthless as the redistricting process. Usually it happens every 10 years, and voters utter a collective yawn.

But in 2016, it looks like voters will have to confront redistricting in a big way.

A Sidenote To Another Ripple Effect Of Johnson Departing MDP
Posted: June, 25 2015 12:22 PM

Now that Michigan Democratic Party Chair Lon Johnson has made it official that he’s resigning to run for Congress, and now that Rep. Brandon Dillon (D-Grand Rapids) has made it official that he hopes to succeed Mr. Johnson, there’s an interesting ripple effect to note.

One of the unknowns going into 2018, when the Michigan Senate is next up for election, was which Democrat – Mr. Dillon or Rep. Winnie Brinks (D-Grand Rapids) – would be the party’s nominee for the 29th Senate District. That’s the very competitive seat that covers Grand Rapids and several suburbs and other Kent County communities.

In 2018, Sen. Dave Hildenbrand (R-Lowell) cannot seek re-election because of term limits, and this seat will be a top priority for both parties.

Prior to the surprising decision of Mr. Johnson to resign and Mr. Dillon to eye the post, the seat might have presented Democrats with an awkward situation. Both Mr. Dillon and Ms. Brinks would have been first-rate candidates. Mr. Dillon would have been out of the House for two years, and Ms. Brinks can’t run for her House seat again in 2018 (presuming she wins re-election in 2016), so both would likely have been tempted to run.

And both have experience running and winning difficult campaigns, Mr. Dillon in 2010 in a much more competitive seat than the one he now has in a bad Democratic year, and Ms. Brinks in 2014, when she had to stave off a ferocious Republican challenge in another bad Democratic year.

Now that potential conundrum for the Democrats is surely gone. Mr. Dillon will be busy, presuming all goes as expected, with his new job at the Hart-Kennedy House (MDP headquarters), and Ms. Brinks has the right of first refusal for the Democratic nomination in the 29th.

As to the Republicans, there are now two House members who live in the 29th Senate District – Rep. Chris Afendoulis (R-Grand Rapids Township) and Rep. Lisa Posthumus Lyons (R-Alto). And there’s always the possibility of someone else from the area’s robust Republican network not currently serving in the Legislature deciding to run.

Shia LaBeouf Joins Snyder To Urge Road Funding… Wait, What?
Posted: June, 4 2015 12:57 PM

The sort of bizarre, perhaps serious, perhaps parody video of actor Shia LaBeouf giving an extremely loud motivational speech has become an Internet hit for its easy mashup ability with other videos, and the folks at the Truscott Rossman public relations firm have gotten in on the fun.

About a month ago, according to Vox, the video surfaced, but it has gone viral in the last 24 hours, and Vox has a lengthy foray into its meaning and just what Mr. LaBeouf might have had in mind with it. Mr. LaBeouf is probably best-known for his role in the “Transformers” movies (none of which were better than the 1980s television cartoon or accompanying movie, by the way) with a few unfortunate roles along the way including a turn on the old “Project Greenlight” reality program where he starred in the ill-fated “The Battle of Shaker Heights.”

Half the reason for this post is that I wanted to work in a “Battle of Shaker Heights” reference.

With that out of the way, Truscott Rossman wasted little time in mashing up the LaBeouf motivational video with a really dry speech from Governor Rick Snyder urging those watching to contact their legislator about the need for more road funding. The result is pretty funny.

Mr. LaBeouf has a long way to go however in the world of motivational speaker parodies. Over to you, Matt Foley and your van down by the river.

A Kildee Update To The 2018 Gubernatorial Talk
Posted: June, 2 2015 12:04 PM

Last week, I wrote about which Democrats stood as the next strongest alternatives to run for governor in 2018 with Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan ruling out a bid.

Those names were Macomb County Executive Mark Hackel, Oakland County Treasurer Andy Meisner and former Senate Majority Leader Gretchen Whitmer.

One name I considered and decided against including was U.S. Rep. Dan Kildee (D-Flint). And it wasn’t long after posting my blog that Kildee supporters contacted me saying he belonged on that list.

I had hesitated because Mr. Kildee could hold his 5th U.S. District seat for life if he wants. It’s solidly Democratic, and between his track record as the Genesee County treasurer, strong organization, the solid support of organized labor and his first-rate ballot name (his uncle Dale held the seat for decades before he did), anyone trying to challenge him for the Democratic nomination would be in for a world of hurt.

Why give that up for the uncertain prospect of a gubernatorial bid?

The reason would be if Mr. Kildee aspires to more than a lengthy congressional career. And it seems he does. Recall that he did run for governor, albeit just for 11 days, in 2010. In the wake of then-Lt. Governor John Cherry’s surprising withdrawal from the race, anyone and everyone in the party was considering running. Mr. Kildee, then the county treasurer, jumped in, but once it became clear organized labor was with Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero, he pulled out.

On Mackinac Island, Mr. Kildee told the Detroit Free Press’ Kathy Gray that he will consider it.

“The question I have to answer is: Where is the best place for me to make progress on the things that I think are important? I owe it to myself to really think about it," he told the Free Press. "It's not that time yet, but I certainly haven't taken it off the table."

Mr. Kildee also has gone out of his way to maintain some involvement in state government, coming to town last year for a news conference and taking on Governor Rick Snyder from time to time.

Should he run, Mr. Kildee would have a great chance to win the support of organized labor, always helpful in a Democratic primary. The Kildee name also is well known in Democratic politics because of his uncle’s nearly four decades in Congress. He could match his achievements as the county treasurer with his strong liberal positions in Congress.

The concerns would be his ability to raise enough money and whether he could excite the Democratic base that mostly is concentrated in Macomb, Oakland and Wayne counties, where he is unknown. That latter point was a major problem for former U.S. Rep. Mark Schauer, who despite years of work in Michigan Democratic politics and plenty of effort in the 2014 campaign could not excite the base in Detroit and got throttled by Mr. Snyder in Macomb and Oakland counties.

Still, if Mr. Kildee runs, there’s no question he would be a major contender to win his party’s nomination, perhaps the favorite, depending on who else enters the race.

This is all a political eternity from now, of course. But the combination of the open seat with Mr. Snyder term limited, Mr. Duggan’s comments and the lack of a U.S. Senate race in the state in 2016 has pushed up the timetable for the usual chattering among the chattering class about the next gubernatorial contest.

If Not Duggan For Governor, Then Who For The Democrats?
Posted: May, 28 2015 1:42 PM

Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan already had scoffed at the speculation he was eyeing a run for governor in 2018, but his flat declaration Wednesday that he will not be a candidate – and stop asking him about it, by the way – might finally put to rest any chance he will seek the Democratic nomination.

Might. Let’s not forget, Mr. Duggan presumably will seek re-election as Detroit mayor in 2017, and flirting with a gubernatorial bid more than two years from that election would be politically ill-advised, to say the least. If after the mayor’s race concludes in 2017 – and Mr. Duggan’s organization, name recognition among voters and first-rate fundraising ability allows him to wait much longer than other potential Democratic gubernatorial candidates – and Mr. Duggan still says he is not running, then it is safe to say he is 100 percent out.

But for now, let’s assume Mr. Duggan is out. Then what?

It deprives Democrats of their best candidate. No one can match Mr. Duggan’s combination of political strengths as outlined above and resume.

And winning the governor’s race is an absolute imperative for Michigan Democrats in 2018.

Democrats are in a position of permanent minority in the Michigan Senate with Republicans holding a 27-11 advantage. Just narrowing that gap to 24-14 would be a triumph for Democrats in 2018.

In the House, Democrats should narrow the 63-47 Republican majority in 2016 thanks to presidential year turnout and a slew of open seats though the odds are against them winning the eight seats needed for shared power to halt Republicans’ ability to pass legislation unimpeded. What will happen in 2018 is hard to say. A Republican in the White House, while surely a Democratic nightmare, would paradoxically enhance Democrats’ chances of mobilizing their voters for a better than usual midterm turnout, but history clearly suggests Republicans will have the advantage in 2018 with the House.

So that means if Democrats want any say at all in what happens at the Capitol anytime soon, they have to win the governorship. It also would mean in 2021, for the first time in 30 years, that Republicans do not have total control of redistricting.

After Mr. Duggan, the following names will get a long look: Macomb County Executive Mark Hackel, Oakland County Treasurer Andy Meisner, former Senate Minority Leader Gretchen Whitmer and … that’s probably it as far as candidates with a credible path to victory. Other than Ms. Whitmer, anyone not from Macomb, Oakland or Wayne counties need not apply. The outstate factor proved a major roadblock for the last two Democratic nominees, Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero and former U.S. Rep. Mark Schauer of Battle Creek.

Mr. Hackel clearly seems interested and toyed with the idea in 2014. There would be a couple complications, however. One, Mr. Hackel would have to give up the county executive post, which also is up for election in 2018. And his independent brand of politics that has seen him clash with some key Democratic interests could prove problematic in a Democratic primary. Still, he is hugely popular in a critical county and could have general election appeal to independents, who went heavily for Governor Rick Snyder in 2014.

Mr. Meisner could be in an interesting spot. Clearly a rising star in the party, holding a countywide office in the most politically important county in the state, having come up through the Levin machine, a former legislator and having strong fundraising ability, Mr. Meisner could be a player. But he will first have to make a decision about what to do in 2016. The county executive post will be up for election, and retirement speculation is running high on Oakland County Executive L. Brooks Patterson.

If elected county executive, Mr. Meisner would face a difficult decision about a 2018 gubernatorial bid. It would require him to spend most of his first two years as executive campaigning for governor. And if Republicans move the date of the next county executive election up to 2018 from 2020, he would have to give up the job to run for governor.

Ms. Whitmer remains a player in the party though an unknown is how much being out of office will dim her star power. Had she run in 2014, the party would have cleared the field for her. In 2018, that won’t be the case unless Mr. Duggan, Mr. Hackel and Mr. Meisner all take themselves out of the running. If all three are out, there will probably be heavy pressure from party leaders to persuade Ms. Whitmer to run because after Ms. Whitmer, the options become a series of lesser-known current and former legislators or trying to find a business executive type who could self-fund a race.

But this all starts with Mr. Duggan. His comments Wednesday will stir the pot in Democratic circles. Come early 2017, when the other potential Democratic candidates will have to get serious about running, they will be watching for any change in tone on the subject from him.

The 23 Things That Went Wrong For Proposal 1
Posted: May, 7 2015 10:39 AM

Governor Rick Snyder and legislators are so focused on their vows to find an answer to road underfunding in the wake of the epic thrashing Proposal 15-1 took Tuesday and unwilling to dwell on just how badly the proposal performed that they sound like Frank Drebin in “The Naked Gun” after the missile hits the fireworks plant and he hilariously advises onlookers “please disperse, nothing to see here.”

There will be plenty of time to focus on what’s next. More drama. More closed-door meetings in which the participants offer bromides about making progress, and afterwards to describe how the meetings went.

But this week should not pass without a proper reflection on just what a disaster Proposal 1 was. When was the last time 80 percent of the people agreed on anything in Michigan politics?

So much effort went into putting the proposal together. Difficult negotiations. Heated disputes. An all-night session. Hard work. Compromise. A momentary crisis on the Senate floor when it fell short of the needed votes. Years of discussions finally culminated into a plan that had Mr. Snyder and leaders from both parties feeling like they had finally cracked the code to increasing road funding for the first time since 1997.

Sure, they had to convince the voters, but if they could find agreement among themselves, surely it could be done.

And yet, by 8:15 p.m. Tuesday, just 15 minutes after the polls closed, with a quarter of the vote counted in Oakland County and the No vote at 78 percent, it was quickly and convincingly over. When the final votes were counted, the Yes vote topped out at 19.9 percent, the worst performance for a constitutional amendment in 67 years and fourth-worst ever. Humiliating seems not a strong enough word to describe the magnitude of the defeat.

So with that in mind, in no particular order, here are the 23 things that went wrong for Proposal 1. Why 23? Because I couldn’t think of a 24th.

1. A POLITICALLY WEAK PLAN: Voters had a choice between raising their taxes or not raising their taxes. What did everyone really think would happen? Pile on layers and complexity and Mr. Snyder and top legislators were ignoring a cardinal rule about ballot proposals: uncertain voters vote no. You could almost see the characters in the old “Saturday Night Live” “Bad Idea Jeans” sketch coming up with the plan.

2. A REPUBLICAN REVOLT: While many Republican legislators voted for this plan, Republican voters hated it. Seemingly every grassroots GOP organization urged a no vote.

3. STAFFING SHAKE-UP FOR YES CAMPAIGN: On December 19, the day after the Legislature put the plan on the ballot with no groundwork laid for a campaign, getting a campaign structure in place quickly was paramount. It took a bit, but by early January, one was taking shape with Howard Edelson, Truscott Rossman, Glengariff Group and Joe Slade White ready to helm the effort. But disagreements between the firms and Mr. Snyder’s chief liaison on the proposal, Terri Reid, prompted a parting of ways. New firms, Martin Waymire and WWP were brought aboard, and while they are fine firms, the Yes campaign had essentially lost one-third of the campaign and was starting from scratch.

4. POISONED WELL: Expectations were so high for the Legislature to pass something that there was a big backlash to the proposal, seeing it as the Legislature shirking its duties in a republic.

5. TINFOIL HAT CROWD: There’s no way to reason with people who decide to vote no because they think the state swindled them when it started the lottery more than 40 years ago to help fund schools (and in 1972 the lottery was intended to raise revenue for all state government not just schools, but somehow quickly that was what people believed) or those who think the state should pay for roads by shutting down Eastern Michigan University. These were actual positions I heard actual people espouse. But their votes count.

6. SCHUETTE FACTOR: Attorney General Bill Schuette deciding to oppose the proposal stung.

7. OVERPLAYING THE SAFETY MESSAGE: Mr. Snyder had tried for years to make the case that Michigan needed to fix its roads to save lives. It never convinced the public to rally to his side, yet that was the overwhelming message from the Yes side in the early stage of the campaign, and the public reaction, if anything, was highly negative.

8. SNYDER PRESIDENTIAL FLIRTATION: Mr. Snyder’s flirtation with running for president could not possibly have helped the proposal’s cause among Democratic voters, who were loath to give the governor on a win on anything.

9. FAILURE TO COUNTER THE ANGER: The proposal became a vessel for voters to vent their anger about whatever particular problem they have with the government. This was always a long shot to pass it, so why not try to counter the anger with some humor from a non-political figure. Could Brad Keselowski, the famous NASCAR driver and Rochester Hills native, have been persuaded to endorse the proposal and cut an ad featuring him dodging potholes, saying Michigan’s roads were even too much for him to navigate? Failing that, even a regular Joe or Jane in a car dodging potholes might have at least offered a message with which voters could identify.

Or what about a social media campaign using the guy behind the hysterical Not So Pure Michigan parody ads and have him do one that mocks the state’s roads, complete with “Cider House Rules” background music? The f-bombs, a staple of his parodies of things like Lions fans and various regions of the state, sadly, would have to go, and they would have to be 99 percent less offensive, but again, get folks to take a second look. Make them laugh. Remind them of what bothers them most about Michigan’s roads.

Linking to one of the Not So Pure Michigan videos here would probably get me fired, so let’s move on…

10. SNYDER BLOWS HIS ACHILLES: Clearly when Mr. Snyder agreed to a ballot proposal on December 18, part of the plan did not involve him rupturing his Achilles tendon in January, effectively immobilizing him for weeks and then getting hospitalized with a blood clot for several days. Murphy’s Law came into play. This wasn’t like Michigan State’s Kalin Lucas blowing his Achilles in the second round of the NCAA basketball tournament against Maryland and the Spartans still winning the game. The Yes side lost its most visible advocate for a key early stretch when the No side was just getting rolling.

11. LACKLUSTER DEMOCRATIC SUPPORT: It took a while for most top Democrats to embrace the plan in a full-throated way. By the time most did, it was too late.

12. PAUL MITCHELL: For the proposal to have a chance, there needed to be no real opposition. Republican Paul Mitchell put together a relatively low-budget operation that did enough to stoke a backlash to the proposal.

13. THE MICHIGAN CHAMBER STAYS OUT: Having the Michigan Chamber of Commerce on board would have meant more money and given a greater opportunity to make some inroads among Republicans. Instead, the chamber stayed neutral.

14. ILL-ADVISED DETROIT MOVE BY SNYDER ON EVE OF ELECTION: Days before the vote on Proposal 1, Mr. Snyder unveiled his controversial and mostly panned proposal to restructure public education in Detroit. For someone who has an incredible track record of staying on message, this was a startling error. Why unveil a politically unpopular proposal – that won’t even take effect for the upcoming school year – so close to Election Day?

15. NO REPEAT OF SPRING POTHOLE HYSTERIA: As cold as the winter of 2014-15 was, it did not match the historic cold of 2013-14, and the pothole hysteria supporters hoped would galvanize voters never materialized.

16. TERRIBLE HEADLINES FOR MDOT: From the controversial leased railcars sitting in a warehouse to audits finding some problems in Department of Transportation operations, the bad press the department has seen this year only helped make the case for those open to it that the state needed to get its house in order first before asking for new revenue.

17. ILL-TIMED CAPITAL PROJECTS IN THE CAPITAL CITY: The Senate’s decision to move to the Capitol View building and lease space provided plenty of ammunition to opponents who argued the state was squandering money that could instead go to the roads. A plan unveiled in late December for a new Capitol visitors center also took heat until officials shelved it.

18. THE ENTICEMENTS BACKFIRE: Remember how putting funding in the proposal for schools, local governments and tax relief for the working poor was supposed to help generate interest in the proposal for those less interested in roads? It didn’t. Even worse, a big chunk of voters seemed to recoil at the plan extending beyond roads even if there was a legitimate case for structuring the proposal in that way.

19. OVERSIGHTS IN THE PROPOSAL: Mistakes in the wording of the some of the bills meant there were at least three trailer bills that were going to be needed to clean up the plan if it passed. That’s not unusual for a major piece of legislation, but most major pieces of legislation also do not go before voters. And it only added to the criticism that Mr. Snyder and the Legislature threw the plan together at the last minute in the middle of the night without thoroughly vetting it.

20. THE EXISTING TRANSPORTATION FUNDING STRUCTURE IS A MESS: Mr. Snyder and supporters had a strong point in saying the proposal would lead to a simpler system with all taxes paid at the pump going to fund roads. But when even the head of the County Road Association of Michigan acknowledges that her own family members didn’t realize sales tax paid at the pump does not go to roads, it underscores just how difficult the task was for supporters to explain the benefits.

21. THE ‘NO PLAN B’ MESSAGE: As much some legislators are now promising swift action on a roads plan, the odds of pulling something big and substantive together in the near future are low. So when supporters urged passage because there was no “Plan B,” it wasn’t that they were wrong, but it only seemed to enhance voter anger at the proposal and the Legislature for failing to resolve the issue on their own without asking voters to finish the job.

22. THE PAY DOWN THE DEBT COMPONENT: The plan had a perfectly reasonable provision to focus much of the first two years of new revenue on paying down old debt to pay for years-ago road construction. The problem was it completely undercut the “your lives are in danger” message from the Yes side. If the problem is so dire, then why not put all the money into road work right away?

23. HOPE IS NOT A STRATEGY: The spokesperson for Safe Roads Yes, Roger Martin, had a great line Wednesday during one of the Proposal 1 autopsies, lamenting how the Legislature and the governor decided to go for a ballot proposal without researching in advance whether the public would support their approach. It was “like shooting an arrow without aiming,” he said.

So there you have it. A defeat for the ages. Maybe “The Blue Note” from “The Naked Gun 2 1/2” can make room on its disaster wall for an image paying homage to Proposal 1 (yes, that’s two “Naked Gun” references for those of you scoring at home).

The Proposal 1 Defeat: Winners And Losers
Posted: May, 5 2015 9:20 PM

As most expected, voters overwhelmingly defeated Proposal 15-1 and decided against a complex plan to raise the sales tax as part of a way to raise more money for roads.

Here’s an early look at who won and lost in this rare statewide special election.

WINNERS

PAUL MITCHELL: Mr. Mitchell steadfastly denied that his decision to lead an opposition group to the proposal had anything to do with his own political ambitions, but most expect him to run for office again and his having put almost a half-million of his own money into the No campaign will only help burnish his credentials in the Republican Party.

HIGHER EDUCATION: It didn’t get a lot of discussion, but one part of the constitutional amendment would have prohibited the use of School Aid Fund money to fund higher education, something that has occurred the last several fiscal years. Passage of Proposal 1 coupled with a recession would have put the state’s 15 public universities in a difficult spot.

LOCAL GOVERNMENTS WHO PASSED BALLOT PROPOSALS: Since the state picked up the cost of holding an election, local governments did not have to shell out the money as they usually would to hold local millage, bond and other proposal votes.

THE NO NEW TAXES CROWD: Remember how tortuous it was in Mr. Snyder’s first term trying to increase taxes to pay for more money for roads? Imagine how difficult it will be now with a more conservative Legislature emboldened by an overwhelming public vote against a tax increase.

LOSERS

RICK SNYDER: Governor Rick Snyder suffered the biggest defeat of his administration, having until now largely had his way in winning approval of his major priorities. Mr. Snyder’s mantra of “relentless positive action” has proven successful on much of his legislative agenda, but his decision to bend to House Republicans in 2014 and agree to a plan that did not legislatively raise taxes severely backfired. The governor also will take heat for traveling around the country in the days leading up to the vote.

ENDORSEMENTS: The Yes campaign had endorsements from almost every major group, liberal and conservative, business and union, Democratic and Republican. The hope was that these organizations would succeed in persuading their members to vote yes and carry the proposal to victory. That clearly did not happen.

GROUPS PUSHING ANY ISSUE OTHER THAN ROADS AT THE CAPITOL: There will surely be an attempt to find new funding for roads – how substantive and how serious remains to be seen. If it becomes a serious endeavor, it will likely suck up all the oxygen at the Capitol again and make it difficult for other issues to move until it is resolved, much like what happened in 2014.

THE FIX ROADS WITH A BALLOT PROPOSAL CROWD: Surely some will suggest a simpler ballot proposal, such as raising the sales tax by 1 percent with all money going to roads. That probably will cause road construction interests, who put about $6 million into Proposal 1, to throw up in their collective mouths. Good luck trying to convince anyone to fund a ballot proposal after what happened tonight.

Additionally, the Legislature took an absolute beating for the past several months for “punting” the issue to voters that helped poison the well on the proposal before the campaign even started. Sending the issue back to voters would provoke another backlash and probably doom a second proposal too.


The only scenario where a proposal actually would generate the revenue would be a Proposal A of 1994-style proposal that forces voters to choose between two different tax increases, but it is hard to imagine this Legislature agreeing to a complex plan that guarantees a tax increase.

Snyder Presidential Flirtation Prior To Prop 1 Vote Risky
Posted: April, 27 2015 2:31 PM

From the moment the Legislature and Governor Rick Snyder decided to put the question of more funding for roads on the ballot for voters to decide, there was no question that, fairly or unfairly, Mr. Snyder would get the lion’s share of the blame if voters defeated it.

But as Mr. Snyder continues to fan the flames of the idea that he is considering running for president, and as Mr. Snyder continues a national swing – prior to the May 5 vote – that only furthers the speculation, the governor risks heavy criticism if voters reject the proposal.

The message against Mr. Snyder from his political foes, and maybe others, will be that he put his own ambitions ahead of the roads proposal.

Mr. Snyder will protest that vigorously, emphasizing all the many events he has held and the long series of interviews with virtually every news media outlet in the state to urge voters to pass the proposal. Last week, he personally filled potholes in Caledonia and Detroit in a show for the television cameras.

And yet, in a campaign, especially a compressed one like this one, every day is precious, especially so close to the election. But Mr. Snyder spent the last several days on the road, first in Nevada at the Republican Jewish Coalition, then the White House Correspondents Association dinner in Washington, D.C., and now today is in California for the Milken Institute’s conference. He did two television interviews this morning, and at least one featured several questions about a White House bid.

So with 12 days until Election Day, Mr. Snyder spent four of them outside the state as part of his stated mission to sell Michigan’s story, but which also can serve the dual purpose of building interest in a possible presidential bid. If Proposal 1 loses in a close decision, it will be hard for Mr. Snyder to defend the wisdom of that time management. Of course, if it loses by a huge margin, then nothing Mr. Snyder did or did not do would have changed the end result.

Mr. Snyder has made it clear that refusing to take his name out of the presidential mix helps draw more attention to the state and gives him more cachet to sell the state’s story around the country. And that makes sense.

And I don’t think Mr. Snyder is going to run for president. I think the idea intrigues him, and I think he would like to translate what he has done in Michigan to Washington, D.C., given his complete disdain for the dysfunction in the nation’s capital. I think he looks at the other Republican candidates and thinks, “Why not me? I have a good story to tell too, maybe a better one.”

But as I have said in the past, I cannot imagine Mr. Snyder essentially deciding to spend the next nine months living in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada. And as Republican strategist Greg McNeilly explained recently, he cannot replicate his 2010 strategy of letting the conservatives divide up the vote in the Republican primary.

Michigan’s 2010 primary was a one-shot deal that enabled him to beat four conservatives with 37 percent of the vote. Even if Mr. Snyder managed to win, say, New Hampshire using that same formula, the fight for the nomination is a series of contests that eventually would reduce it to Mr. Snyder against a more conservative candidate. Game over.

I think Mr. Snyder recognizes these realties. But the governor has a golden opportunity to get a bunch of national coverage for the state (and himself) using the presidential calendar as bait. And it does seem Mr. Snyder is at least loosely contemplating the idea (and really, what governor of a major state has never daydreamed about the presidency?).

So the governor has his toe in the presidential waters. It would be a surprise, however, if he wades in any further.

If Mr. Snyder forms a federal super political action committee, and if he starts scheduling meet ‘n’ greets in places like Keene, New Hampshire, then this Snyder presidential speculation moves into a more serious phase.

If Proposal 15-1 fails, however, and Mr. Snyder, decides against a presidential campaign, the question will be whether the pounding he takes on May 6 will have been worth the opportunity to put the state and himself in the national spotlight.

The Big Legislative Pay Increase, 14 Years Later
Posted: April, 16 2015 11:22 AM

Sometime soon, the State Officers Compensation Commission, a panel of gubernatorial appointees, will recommend pay levels for legislators and statewide elected officials starting in 2017.

One of the SOCC members, when the panel met Wednesday, complained that legislative leaders had provided no recommendation as to what, if anything, should change with their pay.

But for legislators to avoid anything to do with their pay level is no surprise. Ever since the SOCC, at legislative leaders’ behest, recommended a 38.7 percent pay increase for legislators for the 2001-02 term, and the Legislature allowed that increase to take effect, the subject of legislative pay increases has been taboo.

That pay increase has become comparable in the public mind to the old “what happened to the lottery money” saw as far as tainting opinion of the Legislature. Besides the remarkable increase in pay, from $56,981 to $79,650, it also had the effect of juicing the pension benefits for those legislators still in the old pension system.

The supporters of the raise did make a legitimate policy point, that in the era of term limits, it was becoming difficult to persuade those in their 30s, 40s and 50s, in their prime earning years, to take six to 14 years away from their careers, to serve in the Legislature at the pay level at that time. They feared a Legislature, mainly the House, dominated by 20-somethings and those in their 60s nearing retirement.

But the uproar predictably was massive. Under the system at the time, the Legislature only could reject a SOCC pay recommendation with two-thirds majority votes in the House and the Senate. The Senate, dominated by veteran members serving their last term under term limits who would never seek elected office again, made clear it would not vote on the issue. The House, with a membership still very much planning a future in politics and sensing a free pass with the Senate not planning to act, overwhelmingly voted to reject the raise.

The Senate, true to its word, did not vote, and the raises took effect.

But the fallout was significant. The Legislature, under withering attack from the public, put a proposal on the ballot to amend the Constitution, requiring legislators instead to vote affirmatively to approve any SOCC pay recommendations. Voters passed the change. Not only has the Legislature not approved a pay increase since then, it actually approved a 10 percent pay cut in 2009 in the midst of the Great Recession, dropping salaries to $71,685.

And, adjusted for inflation, the $56,981 legislators were paid in 2000 would now be $77,670 today. Yet, looking back at a 2002 Citizens Research Council of Michigan report, the old SOCC system did not keep legislator pay up with inflation either, though it did mean some type of increase almost every year or two.

Certainly, at $71,685 a year, serving as a legislator remains a more than financially viable endeavor, though most would say that’s not the reason why they run. But it’s hard to imagine that pay level increasing any time in the foreseeable future, if ever, under the current system and with memories of the 38.7 percent pay increase still firmly in the ether.

The public probably would be happy, however, to supply the Legislature with the world’s smallest violin.

Snyder Answers To Presidential Queries Taking On New Tone
Posted: March, 30 2015 1:31 PM

Governor Rick Snyder gave two interviews last week while in Washington, D.C., that signal, maybe, he is actually giving a run for the presidency some serious thought.

I say this with some hesitancy because No. 1, I still think Mr. Snyder, with his innate lack of passion for retail campaigning, cannot possibly want to spend most of the rest of the this year camped out in Iowa and New Hampshire, the states that will hold the first nominating caucus and nominating primary for the Republican presidential nomination. No. 2, Mr. Snyder’s chances of winning that nomination are remote, and even with Mr. Snyder’s mantra of positive thinking, I think he is aware of that reality.

And No. 3, Mr. Snyder has made it clear in the past he likes to have his name raised for national office as a way to generate some publicity for the state, so he doesn’t mind stoking the speculation.

All that said, Mr. Snyder’s comments last week to The Associated Press and then The Washington Post – to the Post’s top political writer, Dan Balz, no less – marked a distinct change in what Mr. Snyder is saying about a run for the presidency.

To the AP, when asked about running, Mr. Snyder said, “There’s time to evaluate opportunities.”

And then, in a lengthy Post feature, Mr. Snyder even analyzed the prospective 2016 presidential field. He said he was not convinced that those running grasp the distinction between ideology and solving a problem. He said there are “good people” running and mentioned former Florida Governor Jeb Bush and Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker.

The Post asked Mr. Snyder if either met the standard of putting problem-solving ahead of ideology.

“I don’t think they potentially go far enough in terms of getting out of the political discussion and getting to the problem-solving discussion. I don’t want to be critical of them, because I appreciate them being proactive,” he said.

These comments are distinctly different from past statements Mr. Snyder made about running for the White House, usually something along the lines of how he is “focused on Michigan.”

So maybe it is time to rethink long-held assumptions about Mr. Snyder’s political ambitions.

There are some real reasons to consider why he could make a viable run:

  • Money. Mr. Snyder has tremendous personal wealth, in case anyone forgot. He spent $6 million in his bid to win the Republican gubernatorial nomination in 2010. He isn’t going to self-finance a presidential campaign that will cost well into nine figures, maybe 10, but he has more than enough resources to get a campaign rolling. And Michigan has some of the most important and deep-pocketed Republican donors in the country. They could form a super political action committee to aid him. That kind of a one-two punch would help Mr. Snyder overcome Mr. Bush’s head start in fundraising.
  • Geniality. The Republican nominating contest, at this early stage, seems to be evolving into a Bush-Not Bush dynamic. Mr. Walker, at the moment, has laid claim to much of the portion of the Republican Party opposed to Mr. Bush. Mr. Walker has many strengths, but if there is one real concern about him as a general election candidate, it is that he comes off as a bit severe. In general, voters prefer to see some warmth in a presidential candidate.
  • Suburban appeal. Mr. Snyder has done something in Michigan that federal Republican candidates have repeatedly failed to do here. Dominate, and I do mean dominate, in Macomb and Oakland counties. He has managed to build a brand of fiscal restraint, yet backing targeted investments, and de-emphasizing social issues that appeals with those voters. A Republican presidential candidate who can pull off the same feat in other major metropolitan areas will win the White House.

Yet all the reasons why a Snyder run does not compute are still there. His record on social issues, immigration, support for the Common Core State Standards and Medicaid expansion put him opposite the Republican electorate. He is championing a big tax increase for roads. Most of these stances would help him in the general election, but will surely be an anvil around him in seeking the Republican nomination.

And if Mr. Bush officially gets into the race, as expected, Mr. Snyder would be competing for the same set of voters in the Republican Party. Yes, there is some Bush fatigue, but there also is considerable reverence in much of the GOP for the Bush family. Mr. Snyder is unknown nationally and cannot possibly replicate the incredible national structure the Bush family has established.

I still cannot imagine Mr. Snyder barnstorming from Nashua to Concord to Manchester and from Ames to Cedar Rapids to Dubuque. But if it seemed like there was a 0 percent chance of Mr. Snyder running for president a week ago, the percentage is now higher. Not by much, but the bottom line is it’s not 0 anymore.

Returning Some Sanity To The Legislature On The Budget Process
Posted: March, 25 2015 3:02 PM

At the close of the day Thursday, House and Senate Appropriations subcommittees will have each completed action on 17 bills allocating funding for all state departments and major budget areas in the 2015-16 fiscal year with 33 of those 34 bills winning approval in a dizzying three-day span this week.

This is not how the Legislature has always handled the budget, and it’s time to call it for what it is: unnecessary madness.

Let’s start off by acknowledging that the issue at hand is about as inside baseball as it gets at the Capitol. It affects a fraction of legislators, their legislative staffs, the news reporters who cover the budgets, those representing groups with an interest in the budgets and, most of all, the staffs of the House and Senate Fiscal agencies, the experts who make the budget process function.

And let’s also say the process since 2011 is far better than what happened from 2007-10 when the Legislature and then-Governor Jennifer Granholm were so at odds on a budget that the process drifted into the fall with two partial government shutdowns. In September 2007, the Legislature was in session almost every day of the month, including Saturdays and Sundays. No one wants to go through that again.

The Legislature and the governor now wrap up the budget by early June, but the old, long-time system once used could still accomplish the same objective and not leave the heads spinning of everyone who follows and works in the budget process. It might even improve the process by letting legislators and staff focus on fewer budgets at once.

Once upon a time, long ago, in the late 1990s, back when smart phones did not exist, legislative session could only be followed remotely through a closed-circuit audio feed and Michigan State University’s basketball team enjoyed reliable success (oh wait, one of those things still holds true today), the Legislature had a different system for handling budget bills.

The House and Senate would divide and conquer. After the governor’s budget presentation in February, the House would take half the budget bills and the Senate would take the other half.

For example, it might break down like this:

  • House subcommittees start with Community Health, Higher Education, General Government, Natural Resources, Environmental Quality, State Police, Insurance and Financial Services and Agriculture and Rural Development; and
  • Senate subcommittees start with K-12 school aid, Human Services, Community Colleges, Corrections, Licensing and Regulatory Affairs, Transportation, the Department of Education, Judiciary and Military and Veterans Affairs.

Then once the full House and full Senate complete work on their half of the budget bills, they begin work on the ones sent over by the other chamber. That second phase could be completed by the end of April, just in time for the mid-May revenue estimating conference that sets the final numbers for determining budget spending levels.

This system worked fine for many years. In fact, over history the Legislature and the governor often wrapped up the budget in June using it.

The paranoia about returning to the bad old days of shutdowns and budget brinksmanship seems to be driving the new system of having every subcommittee act on every budget at once in March. But avoiding another 2007 or 2009 is less about the new schedule and more about the political dynamics in place, how complicated the budget for the upcoming fiscal year is and the personalities of the legislative leaders at the time.

So maybe, come 2016, the Legislature can come up with a better system than cramming in vital budget decisions on 34 budget bills into three days.

I assume, however, that MSU basketball will continue to operate in March like it long has.

Energy Debate Might Not Live Up To Expectations
Posted: March, 23 2015 1:11 PM

The one topic that has galvanized everyone’s attention at the Capitol so far this year is energy, and for good reason, given its essential nature, the critical importance the state plays in regulating it and that virtually everyone with even a remote interest in the issue seems to have hired someone to represent them.

2015 loomed as a big year on energy policy in Michigan, mainly because utilities have now met the state’s requirement that they generate 10 percent of their power from renewable sources by this year. And Governor Rick Snyder had pointed to 2015 as the year he would make a major proposal on energy policy.

To win approval of the 10 percent requirement in the 2008 law, then-Governor Jennifer Granholm and the Legislature also moved to restrict the amount of competition allowed in the energy market, going from competing companies battling with DTE Energy and Consumers Energy in their territories for all available customers to instead a cap on 10 percent of the market being available to competition.

That helped bring aboard utility support for the 2008 law.

Now environmental activists are hoping to see the renewable mandate increased. Advocates for more competition are trying to undo the cap. The utilities want to see competition and the renewable mandate ended.

Given these countervailing forces, theoretically much could change in the state’s energy policy. And that is why everyone involved in the issue has gone to battle stations.

But already, a path with minimal change is visible.

At this point, it appears virtually certain the 10 percent mandate on using energy from renewable sources will not change. Mr. Snyder proposes no change, and based on extensive interviews Gongwer News Service has done with the members of the House and Senate energy committees, the Republicans who are the majority on those committees are in agreement.

And with Mr. Snyder and Sen. Mike Nofs (R-Battle Creek), the Senate Energy and Technology Committee chair, both signaling they would like to see the 10 percent cap on competition remain in place, it appears unlikely that Rep. Aric Nesbitt (R-Lawton), the House Energy Policy Committee chair, can win support for ending competition as he wants.

There appears little legislative support for increasing the amount of competition.

That means there might be less radical change, such as something requiring the competing companies to show they have planned for capacity needs for their customers. The competing companies will surely argue they already are doing so.

There will be a debate on what efficiency requirements the state should have. And one of the big unknowns is whether the state will change its procedures for determining the necessity of a utility building or acquiring a new power plant. Current law sets up a voluntary and seldom-used approval process. DTE Energy wants to see a better structure, but so far Mr. Snyder and key legislators have steered clear of the issue.

Add it all up, and at this early stage, there is a distinct possibility that Michigan’s energy law might not look that much different once this debate concludes than it does now.

The Early Line On Succeeding Candice Miller
Posted: March, 6 2015 1:06 PM

As temperatures neared 0 last night for hopefully the final time this winter, one source of heat for the state came from the phone lines in the 586 and 810 area codes that burst into flames shortly after 3:16 p.m. Thursday when U.S. Rep. Candice Miller stunned the political world in declaring she would not seek re-election.

Virtually any current or recent former elected official in most of Macomb County as well as the Thumb suddenly began dreaming about running for Congress and weighing the possibilities.

This blog is going to focus on the Republicans. While the seat is theoretically winnable for a Democrat, and I emphasize theoretical because Ms. Miller’s vote percentage ranged from 63 to 72 percent in seven victories, my presumption is that Democrats will rally around one candidate and avoid a primary. What fun is that?

The Republicans, however, will have a primary.

And we should note how Ms. Miller’s retirement represents the end of an era for the Republican Party. Fourteen years ago, when Republicans redrew the maps, priority number one was to draw a district especially suited for Ms. Miller, then the secretary of state. She had no primary, and while other Republican elected officials have been the subject of intraparty ire, Ms. Miller mostly has been one of the few unifying forces in the party.

2016 will be very different from what the 10th U.S. House District saw in 2002 when Ms. Miller won easily. In 2010, as the most vicious election I have covered played out in the Michigan Senate district for northern Macomb County, I dubbed it in a headline as the “Macomb Chainsaw Massacre” in a nod to the famous horror movie.

There is a real possibility that the upcoming Republican primary could be the sequel.

At this early stage, we can only judge the potential strength of possible candidates on paper. And right now, three stand out on the Republican side, and I’m putting them in alphabetical order: Sen. Jack Brandenburg of Harrison Township, Rep. Andrea LaFontaine of Columbus and Sen. Phil Pavlov of St. Clair.

All three are known as hard-workers on the campaign trail. All three have run and won multiple tough campaigns. All three have won tough races against strong Democratic candidates. Mr. Brandenburg and Mr. Pavlov also have won tough Republican primaries.

And this race is going to cost a pile of money to win. That’s where Mr. Brandenburg and Mr. Pavlov have an edge on Ms. LaFontaine.

Mr. Brandenburg and Mr. Pavlov are both strong fundraisers. Mr. Brandenburg also has some wealth he could use to seed the campaign as he has done with previous bids for office. And the wealth in the community is in Mr. Brandenburg’s part of the district. Ms. LaFontaine has never raised a ton of money in her runs for office, nor for her relatively new political action committee.

All three are conservatives. However, they have split on some high-profile issues. Ms. LaFontaine supported putting the proposed sales tax increase on the ballot to raise money for roads while Mr. Brandenburg and Mr. Pavlov voted no. Ms. LaFontaine voted for the Medicaid expansion and reform legislation while Mr. Brandenburg and Mr. Pavlov voted no. Ms. LaFontaine supported the Grand Bargain to help pull Detroit out of bankruptcy. Again, Mr. Brandenburg and Mr. Pavlov voted no.

Geography looms as a significant factor. According to one analysis, 44 percent of the Republican primary vote in the 10th U.S. House District comes out of the turf Mr. Pavlov represents in the Senate. About 38 percent comes from Mr. Brandenburg’s territory. Just 11 percent comes from Ms. LaFontaine’s area.

Helping Mr. Pavlov, what if a bunch of Macomb candidates join the race, like former Rep. Pete Lund, current Rep. Peter Lucido, Rep. Ken Goike, Sen. Tory Rocca and others? That would split up the Macomb vote.

At the same time, if Ms. LaFontaine is the lone woman in the field, that could help her cause.

There are all kinds of X-factors here. Mr. Lucido is brand new to elected politics, but if he jumped into the race, he showed last year he was willing to dip heavily into his own wallet to fund his campaigns to the tune of $186,000. That would make him a player.

Mr. Lund is popular in his district and has a pile of connections in the Macomb County Republican Party, but could have trouble raising money, being out of office.

If the field gets crowded with conservatives, does someone like Mr. Rocca jump into the race and look to take advantage?

Does the Club for Growth get involved, and if it picks a candidate to back, does that help clear the primary field?

And then there is hardest to project variable, Rep. Todd Courser. Unless national tea party groups got involved, money would be a serious problem for him. But Lapeer County, which he represents, counts for 16 percent of the Republican primary vote in the 10th. He could run to the right of everyone else in the field and campaign as the outsider.

Should Mr. Courser run and become a threat to win, that brings into play the most important X-factor, or perhaps the M-factor: Ms. Miller. Retiring Republican members of the U.S. House have proven instrumental in the election of their successors. Former U.S. Rep. Dave Camp was vital in the victory of now-U.S. Rep. John Moolenaar (R-Midland). And former U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers went all-in to ensure now-U.S. Rep. Mike Bishop (R-Rochester) succeeded him.

In her statement, Ms. Miller said she was content to let the field play out.

But if Mr. Courser, whose labeling of Ms. Miller as one of several “undocumented Democrats” interloping in the Michigan Republican Party was the point when establishment Republicans went from annoyance to fury with him, becomes a threat to win, it is hard to imagine Ms. Miller would stand idly by.

Ms. Miller’s history of her endorsees winning high office is, to be kind, not good. But past support for unsuccessful candidates like Rudy Giuliani and Rick Perry for president and Pete Hoekstra for governor is irrelevant here. Ms. Miller’s popularity in the 10th is as strong as it gets in today’s politics. Her decision to endorse a candidate would be momentous.

Senate Office Controversy Latest In Long Line Of Building Fights
Posted: February, 24 2015 4:46 PM

One of the certainties in government and politics is that when a branch of the government pays for the construction of a new building, renovation of an existing building or leasing of new space, it will be exploited, sometimes fairly and sometimes unfairly, for political gain.

And that is the current situation with the Senate’s plan to move its member offices out of the state-owned Farnum Building, which has seen better days and where its members have kept offices since the 1970s, for the relatively new, privately owned Capitol View building a block away.

The move was the idea of former Senate Majority Leader Randy Richardville, a Monroe Republican, who left the Senate at the start of this year because of term limits. The cost of renovating the Farnum far exceeded the cost of leasing new space at the Capitol View, he contended.

The bipartisan pile-on is now well underway. Conservatives are highlighting the move and associated cost of leasing the new space as a sign of how unnecessary it is to pass Proposal 15-1 and raise the sales tax for roads. Democrats see a political opportunity, given the Republican control of state government, and are questioning the wisdom of spending the money on the new office space when the state just had to make some spending cuts to close a $330 million current year deficit.

This all brings to mind a similar brouhaha that erupted when the House moved its member offices into what is now the Anderson House Office Building, essentially a newly constructed building with a Capitol view window for all 110 members.

Prior to the HOB’s opening in 1999, House member offices were scattered between the old Roosevelt Building (now a parking garage), where most Democratic members were located, and the Romney Building, where most Republican members were located. Senior members in those pre-term limits days had offices in the Capitol.

The Roosevelt Building’s condition was so bad that when it was finally reduced a pile of rubble, most of the members and staff who worked there would have said it represented an improvement in its utility. Clearing the Republicans out of the Romney opened up more space for the governor’s administrative staff, which now fills the building.

And no one really pitched a fit over the move itself or the newness of the HOB. But what started a political firestorm was the revelation the state would appropriate $10 million to furnish the building.

Some questioned the cost. Others questioned whether the furnishing of the building was properly put up for bid. Republicans, who had just taken control of the House earlier that year, went to great lengths to note the decision to build the new building came during Democratic control of the House.

Then, as now, the criticism was bipartisan. Similar outrage was voiced when, in the late 1990s, the state decided to build the Hall of Justice to house the Supreme Court and Court of Appeals.

It all serves as a reminder that there are two price tags anytime the government gets into the building business: the price for the actual building and, sometimes more onerous, the political price.

State Releases Draft Wording For Roads Ballot Proposal
Posted: February, 20 2015 6:03 PM

The Bureau of Elections released today its draft wording for Proposal 15-1, the proposal on the May 5 ballot to raise the sales tax for roads.

The first portion of the wording emphasizes the sales tax’s maximum rate would go from 6 to 7 percent, that the sales tax on fuel would be eliminated and that a portion of the use tax would go to the School Aid Fund.

The second portion of the wording, set off in bullets, repeats the sales tax changes, but then also goes into further detail about how the School Aid Fund could be used for public community colleges and career/technical education, but not higher education. It also says passage would trigger laws that include an “increase in the motor fuel tax on gasoline/diesel fuel and vehicle registration fees, and dedicate revenue for roads and other transportation programs.”

The language also mentions the proposal would require competitive bidding and warranties for road projects and increase the Earned Income Tax Credit.

The Board of State Canvassers will meet Thursday to finalize the language.

The draft language reads as follows:

A PROPOSAL TO AMEND THE STATE CONSTITUTION TO INCREASE THE MAXIMUM SALES TAX RATE FROM 6% TO 7%, ELIMINATE SALES AND USE TAXES ON GASOLINE AND DIESEL FUEL, DEDICATE A PORTION OF USE TAX REVENUE TO THE SCHOOL AID FUND, REVISE PERMISSIBLE USES OF THE SCHOOL AID FUND AND TRIGGER OTHER LAWS THAT INCLUDE DEDICATING REVENUE FOR ROADS AND OTHER TRANSPORTATION PURPOSES.

The proposed constitutional amendment would:

  • Set maximum sales tax rate at 7% (now 6%).
  • Exempt gasoline / diesel fuel from sales and use taxes.
  • Dedicate portion of use tax to School Aid Fund (SAF).
  • Allow use of SAF for public community colleges and career / technical education and prohibit use for higher education.
  • Trigger laws that include but not limited to:
  • Increase sales / use tax rates to 7%;
  • Increase motor fuel tax on gasoline / diesel fuel and vehicle registration fees, and dedicate revenue for roads and other transportation purposes;
  • Require competitive bidding and warranties for road projects; and
  • Increase earned income tax credit.

Should this proposal be adopted?

The Dynamics Change In Grand Rapids On Abortion
Posted: February, 5 2015 3:05 PM

One of the most certain aspects Michigan politics has officially dissolved: Candidates no longer need to staunchly oppose abortion to win election to partisan office in Grand Rapids.

It wasn’t a single moment that reversed the city’s abortion politics, but the moment when the transformation became complete came today when Rep. Brandon Dillon (D-Grand Rapids) wrote a column for Mlive in which he declared he now supports the right to a legal abortion after years of opposing abortion, even securing Right to Life of Michigan’s endorsement in 2010 when he first ran for the House.

This is an enormous change in the past 20 years. Two decades ago, both of the city’s members of the state House were solidly anti-abortion. Then-Rep. Tom Mathieu, a Democrat, might have been more stridently opposed to abortion than any other member of the Legislature. And little changed after term limits pushed Mr. Mathieu out of after 1998.

A succession of Democrats and Republicans representing the city held the same view – Steve Pestka, Bill Byl, Michael Sak, Jerry Kooiman, Robert Dean, Roy Schmidt and Brandon Dillon.

But something changed starting in 2012. First, Mr. Pestka, a Democrat running for the area’s U.S. House seat that year, declared he now supported the right to a legal abortion. And then Winnie Brinks, who supports abortion rights, toppled Mr. Schmidt, though to be clear, abortion had nothing to do with the outcome of that race with Mr. Schmidt’s career shattered by scandal.

Still, Ms. Brinks survived a ferocious challenge in 2014 against a Republican who had the Right to Life of Michigan endorsement.

Now Mr. Dillon says his thinking has changed on the issue, meaning both of the city’s representatives in the House support abortion rights.

This would have been unthinkable not that many years ago.

It is a product of a couple factors. One, the Democratic Party’s anti-abortion wing has withered and the city of Grand Rapids has become more Democratic. In the 1990s, Mr. Mathieu was one of several anti-abortion Democrats, whose ranks included top party leaders like then-Attorney General Frank Kelley, then-House Speaker Curtis Hertel Sr. and then-House Majority Floor Leader Pat Gagliardi (editor's note: this story corrected to indicate the former speaker was Hertel Sr., not Jr.)

Similar dynamics have shown up in the House seats in Warren and Downriver. Anti-abortion Democrats used to win those seats regularly. Not so anymore.

Two, when it comes to winning competitive general elections, as Ms. Brinks’ seat is, a candidate’s position on abortion no longer matters as much as it once did. Consider the 91st House District in suburban Muskegon as a good parallel.

At one time, it was understood in this seat, the most competitive in the state, that a candidate had to oppose abortion and have the Right to Life endorsement to win. As a result, Democrats ran anti-abortion candidates. Then in 2006, Mary Valentine, a supporter of abortion rights, won. She won re-election in 2008. Then Collene Lamonte, another Democrat who supports abortion rights, won the seat in 2012. Rep. Holly Hughes, a Republican who opposes abortion, won the seat in 2010 and 2014.

That Mr. Dillon’s 75th District seat in Grand Rapids would eventually be held by an abortion rights supporting Democrat was probably inevitable. The surprise was that it was Mr. Dillon who made the change.

Pondering Mitchell’s Roads Gambit
Posted: February, 3 2015 12:14 PM

Wealthy Republican business executive Paul Mitchell’s decision to lead and help fund an effort to defeat the May 5 ballot proposal to increase the sales tax as part of raising $1.2 billion for roads and smaller amounts for schools, local government services and tax relief for the working poor has all the hallmarks of a prelude.

But to what, exactly? Well, let’s indulge ourselves in some speculation. First, here is what we know.

Initially, Mr. Mitchell planned to run for the state Senate in 2014, but declined to do so, citing family considerations. A year later, when his area’s U.S. House seat unexpectedly had an opening due to U.S. Rep. Dave Camp (R-Midland) retiring, the family considerations had been resolved, and he jumped into that race.

Mr. Mitchell put $5 million of his own wealth into that unsuccessful bid. He came out of nowhere to become a serious contender for the Republican nomination thanks to spending a fortune on television advertisements, but ultimately lost decisively to then-Sen. and now U.S. Rep. John Moolenaar (R-Midland), who had key endorsements, more experience on the stump and years of relationships in the area’s Republican Party.

Clearly, though, Mr. Mitchell is not giving up on politics. He got involved in a conservative coalition after losing the primary, becoming the chair of the Faith and Freedom Coalition, and now he’s made a splashy move to position himself as the leading voice of the opposition to the sales tax hike and the road funding plan.

Mr. Mitchell said Monday he plans to travel the state and meet with groups to discuss the need to vote no on the roads ballot proposal.

When I asked Mr. Mitchell Monday about the ballot committee perhaps positioning him to run for office down the road, Mr. Mitchell denied it, so let’s get his denial out of the way.

But this all seems like a play by Mr. Mitchell to position himself for a run for statewide office in 2018, perhaps either governor or U.S. Senate.

If voters reject the roads proposal, Mr. Mitchell can claim to conservatives to be the hero who put money into the effort when it was questionable who would step up on that front. He will have had the chance to test-drive a statewide campaign.

A gubernatorial bid would be especially intriguing because it almost certainly would pit Mr. Mitchell against Attorney General Bill Schuette and perhaps other GOP luminaries for the Republican nomination. Mr. Schuette, along with Mr. Camp, was absolutely essential in turning around the U.S. House race for Mr. Moolenaar and sinking Mr. Mitchell. Mr. Schuette has not said anything about running for governor, but everyone connected to politics in Michigan assumes he will.

Mr. Mitchell’s attacks on Mr. Moolenaar made him a bunch of enemies in the Michigan Republican Party’s political class, and that’s where maybe a U.S. Senate bid could come into play. Finding a viable Republican willing to challenge U.S. Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Lansing) is going to be a major chore, and Mr. Mitchell could probably win back a bunch of goodwill if he volunteered for the task and spared the party what would surely be a vicious primary involving him, Mr. Schuette and maybe others.

Or maybe Mr. Mitchell really does plan to recede from the political spotlight once the May 5 ballot proposal concludes and has no interest in running for office again.

However, from everything we have seen from Mr. Mitchell in the past two years, which seems highly unlikely.

Yes Campaign For Roads Is A Mess
Posted: January, 30 2015 1:19 PM

The effort to convince voters to pass a sales tax increase as part of a plan to raise $1.2 billion for roads as well as smaller amounts for public schools, local government services and low-income tax relief is not doomed, but it is hard to imagine how it could be off to a worse start.

To quickly recap, the last 48 hours has seen the Yes campaign team quit in a dispute with Governor Rick Snyder’s chief liaison on the issue about which firms should perform which work and a political missile study asserting that the changes to vehicle registrations as part of the plan would scuttle the ability for motorists to deduct their registration fees from their federal income taxes.

There also was a poll with ominous numbers for the Yes side, but I’m going to put that in third place in importance, mainly because I question just how many of those surveyed who say they are very certain to vote in an unprecedented May special statewide election actually will do so. The poll surveyed likely presidential election year voters, and of the 600 surveyed, 77 percent said they were very certain to vote May 5.

That would put turnout at 50 percent, and that would far exceed turnout in nine of the last 10 regular November midterm elections, something that seems very unlikely. The closest precedent to the upcoming May 5 vote is the March 15, 1994, special statewide election to decide Proposal A and that saw 39 percent turnout. Let’s see how the polls look in March, once efforts to contact and educate voters have had time to percolate.

Mr. Snyder can try to minimize all he wants the significance of a complete change in campaign staff – and I can understand why he did just that Thursday when he called it a start-up, not a shake-up. But in a four and a half month campaign, the Yes side just started over one-third of the way into it.

The disjointed response from the Yes side to the study from the Anderson Economic Group charging the roads plan would cost those who itemize their deductions on their federal income taxes the ability to deduct their vehicle registration fee serves as the clearest example of the Yes side’s woes.

The Anderson Economic Group unveiled the findings in a way to maximize impact, releasing them exclusively in the morning on WJR-AM. Web stories quickly followed from news outlets, including this one.

But there was anything from a unified response from supporters of the plan:

  • The sponsor of the vehicle registration bill, Rep. Mike McCready (R-Bloomfield Hills), concurred with the Anderson study and said he was well aware of the repercussions regarding the tax deduction;
  • The Michigan Department of Treasury said the bill would not eliminate the tax deduction;
  • Mr. Snyder said staff is researching the issue.

The timing of the story could not have been worse. It hit just as the campaign staff was pulling out, so it left no one in the campaign itself to coordinate communications and quickly respond. Instead, it was six to eight hours after the original WJR broadcast before Treasury made public its dissent about the Anderson report.

None of this is to say Proposal 1 has no shot at success. But it always has been a long-shot, even with a perfectly executed campaign.

And so far, this is anything but a perfectly executed campaign.

Parsing Snyder’s Dig At Washington
Posted: January, 21 2015 3:13 PM

At the close of his State of the State address Tuesday, Governor Rick Snyder took note that President Barack Obama would deliver his State of the Union speech later in the evening and offered a contrast to how Michigan state government and the federal government operate.

“While we solve problems in Michigan, we have gridlock in Washington,” he said. “And this is not a partisan comment folks. Both sides have huge issues. Gridlock is not a good answer for any of us. And if you look at the positioning, they’re already figuring out how they can take shots at one another. We don’t do that here. Does it make a difference? It absolutely does.”

Mr. Snyder continued, “We use relentless positive action to solve the tough problems where they spend most of their time on fighting and blame and leaving those problems for future generations.” He talked of budgets passed on time and balanced, changes to the tax system, the Grand Bargain for Detroit and the Healthy Michigan program that expanded and reformed Medicaid.

There are a few theories as to Mr. Snyder’s intent.

The first is the most simple. Mr. Snyder wanted to put his leadership in a more favorable light by contrasting it with the poisonous atmosphere in Washington.

The second possibility is that Mr. Snyder was trying to throw a little more gasoline on the fire started by some national media outlets that he is interested in running for president or setting himself up as a vice presidential candidate. Mr. Snyder is not running for president, no matter what fanciful theories are out there. Can anyone imagine the governor parking himself in Iowa and New Hampshire all year? Please. But he has made it plain he welcomes the buzz insofar as it brings attention to Michigan.

The third possibility is the most intriguing one and of course all of the above is also possible.

That possibility is that it was a warning to the more conservative Republican majorities elected to the Michigan House and Senate in 2014.

The early word to describe the relationship between Mr. Snyder and the 98th Legislature is confrontation. In a move no one could remember seeing, House and Senate Republicans lined up bills to repeal the state’s prevailing wage law as the first bills to be introduced in each chamber, placement that signifies an enhanced priority.

Mr. Snyder, in a rare move for him, immediately said he would not support the legislation.

Then, in his speech, Mr. Snyder called for continued discussion on expanding the Elliott-Larsen Civil Rights Act, presumably to the LGBT community although Mr. Snyder did not specify. He did so even though the new Republican leadership had already made it plain they had little to no interest in the issue. And House Speaker Kevin Cotter (R-Mount Pleasant) responded after the speech that the Legislature already had the discussion in 2014 and decided not to move forward.

Presuming Mr. Snyder completes his term and that Republicans maintain control of the House in the 2016 elections (and they will be favored since they can afford to lose seven seats and still keep control), he will be the first governor in Michigan history to serve eight years and have a Legislature controlled by his party for those full eight years.

Yet these next four years have a completely different vibe than the first four.

In 2011, there was pent-up demand for Republican legislation after four years of a Democratic governor and Democratic control of the House. And there was pressure to show Republicans could get the ship of state running more smoothly after four years of divided government with a Republican Senate had led to two brief partial government shutdowns. Additionally, Mr. Snyder wound up with a House speaker in Jase Bolger who proved extremely skilled in wringing out the usual drama and problems the less experienced House has had in the term limits era as well as a Senate majority leader in Randy Richardville who was ideologically in sync with him on many issues. Republicans had to be careful about spurning Mr. Snyder for fear of undermining his re-election bid.

In 2015, Mr. Snyder will not run for governor again. There are new Republican legislative leaders who have yet to show their stripes in how they will lead other than to elevate prevailing wage repeal to a top priority. Twenty-seven of the 38 Senate seats will be open in 2018 because of term limits, and House members will surely position themselves accordingly.

The fighting and blame Mr. Snyder said is endemic to Washington? “We don’t do that here,” he said.

It sounded like both a description and a request.

Ronna Romney McDaniel’s Dave Agema Problem
Posted: January, 14 2015 12:40 PM

The establishment wing of the Republican Party has concluded it can no longer allow Michigan’s Republican National committeeman, Dave Agema, to continue slandering groups of people and is talking about finding a way to expel him from office instead of futilely demanding his resignation.

But there is one major figure in the Michigan Republican Party who stands out right now as having said nothing since the latest bout of Agemania started after Mr. Agema posted on his Facebook page an essay from a purported public defender that was a plainly racist attack on African-Americans, questioning their intelligence and capabilities.

That would be Ronna Romney McDaniel, Michigan’s Republican National committeewoman who is running for chair of the state GOP at next month’s convention.

I and many other reporters have tried multiple times to contact Ms. McDaniel since she announced her bid for state party chair and then again after the latest Agema controversy erupted in the past 10 days. She has not returned messages.

And it’s not surprising why. Ms. McDaniel is trying to walk a tightrope between the establishment and tea party wings of the party and so far seems to be doing so successfully. As a Romney (daughter of Scott and Ronna, niece of Mitt and granddaughter of former Governor George Romney and Lenore Romney), she is undoubtedly an establishment fixture. And the establishment has rallied to her side in her bid for party chair.

But in the less than a year she has served on the RNC, Ms. McDaniel also has reached out to the tea party and so far has made enough of an impression that a tea party candidate has yet to enter the race, although Norm Hughes is considering doing so. She has landed at least a couple notable tea party endorsements.

And there’s the problem. The tea party wing still mostly supports Mr. Agema. He’s its one real foothold in the state party structure.

The Agema problem has festered for more than a year following his reposting of essays from other authors attacking gays and lesbians and Muslims. There were calls for Mr. Agema to resign then, including from RNC Chair Reince Preibus and Michigan Republican Party Chair Bobby Schostak.

Ms. McDaniel has always publicly tiptoed around Mr. Agema. After she won her RNC post 11 months ago, she refrained from criticizing him, essentially saying because he had chosen not to resign, she would need to work with him. She declined to ask for his resignation.

“I think we’ve moved beyond that,” she said then. “He’s been asked to resign; he decided not to. I’ve got to do what I can do.”

In a questionnaire prior to her election to the RNC, Ms. McDaniel was asked how she would work with Mr. Agema.

"I have always enjoyed a good working relationship with Mr. Agema. If I have an issue with what another Republican has said, I will reach out to them privately and have a discussion instead of taking those issues to the media," she said, adding she would save criticism for "the destructive policies of the Democratic Party."

Should Ms. McDaniel denounce him now, her election as party chair would be thrown into some doubt. Right now, she is the strong favorite to win. If she calls for Mr. Agema to quit, then at a minimum she will have to endure a vigorous challenge.

But Ms. McDaniel’s silence has drawn some notice as well among Republicans. And what happens if she wins and Mr. Agema remains in office for the final 14 months of his term, continuing to launch his Facebook attacks?

Public silence at that point is not going to work. Yet if Ms. McDaniel calls for Mr. Agema to resign after getting elected, it would be easy to envision Mr. Agema’s supporters viewing the move as a bait and switch.

It may not take that long though to find out where Ms. McDaniel stands. Any RNC action should shed some light on Ms. McDaniel's view since she is a member and presumably will vote on any proposal to criticize Mr. Agema or attempt to expel him.

Some Gallows Humor On The Roads Impasse
Posted: December, 17 2014 4:25 PM

The public relations firms that populate the Capitol community usually have some good fodder in their holiday cards each year, and this year’s card from Marketing Resource Group is a dandy, especially in light of how poorly the negotiations on a road funding solution appear to be going.

Maybe it will take Santa Claus to prod top legislative leaders and Governor Rick Snyder toward a compromise on the road issue.

Olumba Fittingly Exits In Bizarre Fashion
Posted: December, 11 2014 11:57 AM

Rep. John Olumba’s 4,930-word, 29-minute, rambling, delusional, insult-laden farewell speech Wednesday on the floor of the Michigan House of Representatives was a low point for the institution, and it’s a damn shame House leadership allowed Mr. Olumba to go on and on and on.

Some poor, taxpayer-paid soul on the House’s clerk staff spent heaven knows how long transcribing the travesty so it could appear, as all member farewell speeches do, in the official House Journal for posterity.

And maybe, as big a waste of staff time as that was, that is a good thing, because it will serve as a record of just how disgusting the whole episode was.

Many years ago, Booth Newspapers (now Mlive), did a story in which the organization labeled legislators based on their level of relevance and activity on legislation at the Capitol. One of those labels was “furniture,” as in they did nothing more than take up space in the building.

Initially I was going to say Mr. Olumba would have fallen into the furniture category, but he has been absent so much, he doesn’t even meet that threshold.

But Mr. Olumba did grace the House floor with his presence yesterday to offer his farewell remarks.

Some of the speech was unsurprising and while churlish for a farewell address, acceptable fare. He took shots at the House Democratic caucus. Mr. Olumba won office as a Democrat in 2010 and 2012, but then became an independent in 2013, saying the caucus had taken Detroit and African-Americans for granted. Mr. Olumba, however, undercut that move when in 2014 he decided to run for the Senate as a Democrat, surely realizing he stood no chance of winning election in his heavily Democratic seat if he ran as anything but (he lost the Democratic primary).

The opening of the speech was actually an interesting metaphor comparing his time at the Capitol to jazz and recounted a bit of his life before winning a House seat in 2010.

Then it was all downhill.

Mr. Olumba lamented that House Democrats had stopped his strategy of a “filibuster” on the emergency manager law. I have no idea what he could have meant. There is no way to filibuster a bill in the Michigan House or Senate. This is not the U.S. Senate where a member can talk as long as he or she can talk. At some point, the House or Senate leadership can and will shut down a member from speaking.

Even yesterday, as majority House Republicans let Mr. Olumba ramble on and on, they did finally ask him to wrap it up.

There was some trash talk to House Democrats about how he beat Rep. Jimmy Womack (D-Detroit) in the 2012 Democratic primary despite the party establishment rallying to Mr. Womack.

Then there was a long period of winding remarks, in which among other things, he whined about how Rep. Marcia Hovey-Wright (D-Muskegon) “screwed me out of my seat selection” for the current term on the House floor.

He attempted to tell a story, what the point was I have no idea, about a time when he, Rep. Harvey Santana (D-Detroit), Rep. Rose Mary Robinson (D-Detroit) and Rep. Sam Singh (D-East Lansing) had gathered. Instead of describing them by their names, he used their races, maybe – maybe – as a way of noting people of different backgrounds coming together. But then when he got to Mr. Singh, who is of Indian descent, Mr. Olumba, offered for clarity, “Like curry and tandoori, not like trail of tears.”

Thanks goodness he cleared that up by defining Mr. Singh’s ethnicity in terms of food. Ridiculous.

Then it got ugly. While claiming that some children unjustifiably get classified as learning disabled, he used the word “retarded,” generally seen as so insulting and reprehensible a word when talking about someone with a mental disability, that there is a movement to end its use.

“Sometimes it’s like if Jerome isn’t good in math or reading, then he must be retarded he can’t be good at anything else,” he said.

In a weird way, Mr. Olumba seemed to acknowledge what he said was wrong, noting the Legislature passed a law removing the word from state statutes. “Oh my bad, we passed a law banning that word. Was I here to vote on that?” he said.

If that was bad, what came next was worse.

Mr. Olumba launched into a tirade against Asians and Chaldeans, playing up a major stereotype, in blasting merchants of Asian and Chaldean descent for purportedly taking advantage of African-Americans in Detroit.

“Asians and Chaldeans should have a Black Misery Appreciation Day, they are selling fake hair, gas, and loose cigarettes to people all across Detroit that are hoping to catch a breath of fresh air. And making a fortune doing it,” he said. “I want African Americans to get back to our principles of once being an honorable and spiritual people, who wanted most to be right in front of God. When we have him, we won’t need the Chaldean to sell us loose cigarettes or the Korean to sell us weave or the media and Hollywood and the music industry to sell us toxic rap music.”

In a final insult, Mr. Olumba took a shot at transgender people, voicing umbrage that their push to be included in the Elliott-Larsen Civil Rights Act has been compared to the act’s original purpose to protect African-Americans from discrimination.

“To me seeing a guy dressed up as a girl is either going to be really funny or really sad,” he said. “But I mean let’s make the observation and move on, but don’t offend me by comparing his journey to wear panty hose to work because he feels more secure in them to Martin Luther King being assassinated or to my wife’s father being sprayed with hoses or bitten by dogs, or to my great uncles being jailed multiple times. Or to millions of people losing their lives to forced bondage and servitude.”

Mr. Olumba closed by returning to his jazz metaphor. By then, he had long since wandered way off that path.

House leadership and the House clerk ought to take a look at a rules change for the upcoming term on these speeches.

Current rules allow the presiding officer to gavel down any member who questions the motivations of another member and for not speaking to the item at hand. If a person walks between the presiding officer and another member speaking on the floor, that member gets gaveled down.

It seems like slandering other races or mocking someone’s gender identity should get the same treatment.

How Lame Is The Lame-Duck Legislature: Some Numbers
Posted: December, 10 2014 2:02 PM

The reason so many big, controversial issues have a better chance of passing the Legislature after the November election is that so many legislators will never again have to face the voters and thus are freed from many of the usual considerations when casting votes on those tough issues.

But just how lame is this lame-duck Legislature? The answer is very, at least on the surface.

For starters, in the Senate, only one member – Sen. Jim Ananich (D-Flint) – is eligible to run for re-election in 2018. Every other member is either leaving office at the end of this year or ineligible to run again because of term limits. Mr. Ananich won a special election in 2013, so technically the past year and change in office for him does not count as his first term under term limits.

This could help explain why the first vote to raise new revenue for roads occurred in the Senate.

In the House, 85 of the 110 members are either leaving office at the end of the year or cannot run again in 2016 because of term limits.

But there’s more to it than that. In the House, many more members still have a clear political future ahead of them with eligibility to run for the Senate and surely many of them already are eyeing runs in 2018 when 28 of the Senate’s 38 seats will have no incumbent running.

Senate members, in contrast, in most cases have nowhere to go other than running for local office, especially with so much recent turnover in Michigan’s U.S. House delegation foreclosing the possibility of a congressional bid for many years, if ever.

Of the 85 members leaving the House after this year or barred from running in 2016, I count 78 that at least could plausibly be seen as having interest in continuing to run for office, mainly Senate seats. But in the Senate, I see just 13 of the 37 who could have the opportunity to run for other major office in the foreseeable future.

So on the one hand, the 97th Legislature at this point is remarkably lame in the sense of a lame-duck Legislature with 122 of the 148 members likely never again running for their current office.

But on the other hand, a majority of them, 91 out of 148, could conceivably run for a high-level office again in the near future, meaning that – shocker! – electoral considerations will still very much play a role in whether legislators cast a green yes or a red no vote in the final five session days remaining.

Redistricting Not Reason For Republicans Winning Key Legislative Races
Posted: November, 12 2014 1:19 PM

In the week following the elections, some Democrats and analysts have vented about the Republican-controlled redistricting plan of 2011 when analyzing why the GOP gained four seats in the House and one seat in the Senate this year.

They are wrong.

Now, there actually are two different ways to look at the impact of redistricting on the 2014 elections for the Michigan Legislature.

The first one: Does the plan, written by Republicans with no meaningful input from the Democrats, design some districts that could have been more competitive to instead lean Republican and thus make it much harder for Democrats to win a House majority than Republicans?

The answer is, emphatically, yes.

The second one: In the actual races that Democrats and Republicans fiercely contested last week, did redistricting in 2011 stack the deck in favor of the Republican candidates?

The answer is, in most cases, absolutely not.

Let’s deal with the first question. By my count, there are 14 seats in the 110-seat House and seven seats in the 38-seat Senate where the 2011 reapportionment plan pushed competitive seats to become more Republican and will be in Republican hands in 2015.

So in the House, where Republicans will have a 63-47 majority in 2015, if nine of these 14 seats were more balanced politically and Democrats won those nine, yes, they would have 56 seats and the majority. And in the Senate, if Democrats won all seven of these seats, they would have 18 seats and … still be in the minority.

But here’s the problem with the argument that redistricting gerrymandered Democrats into an impossible task to win the majority. Most of the key House and Senate battles did not take place in these seats. In fact, many of them took place in seats whose boundaries have been largely stable or, in some cases, were made friendlier to Democrats than they were in the 2001 reapportionment plan.

The Senate is a great example. The key battles were in the 7th District (northwest Wayne County), 17th District (Lenawee and Monroe counties), the 20th District (Kalamazoo County) and the 32nd District (Saginaw and part of Genesee counties).

The way Republicans drew the 17th gave Democrats a chance. They lopped off Republican- leaning areas in Jackson and Washtenaw counties and instead paired Lenawee County with Monroe County (how the district looked in the 1990s when it elected a Democrat twice). Not only did that make the district a bit less Republican, but it put the best conceivable Democratic candidate for the seat, former Rep. Doug Spade of Adrian, into the district.

In the 20th, redistricting did Democrats a huge favor. It lopped off the two Republican-leaning townships in Van Buren County from the seat, making the district more Democratic and putting incumbent Sen. Tonya Schuitmaker (R-Lawton) into a new 26th District. So Democrats got an unexpected shot at an open seat and one with fewer Republican voters.

In the 32nd, Republicans got rid of the Republican-leaning Gratiot County portion of the seat and instead added Republican-leaning portions of Genesee County. Even still, it remained a Democratic-leaning district.

The 7th District was the one seat that Republicans made significantly more GOP, cleaving away the Downriver portions and instead adding Livonia. But even still, just on the eye test, the new lines of the 7th, neatly covering the northwest corner of Wayne County, are cleaner than the old “L” shape of the district. It was hardly an outrageous gerrymander.

Yet despite getting some help in three of the four seats from redistricting, the Democrats lost all four. And that doesn’t even address the massive candidate recruitment failures the party had in two seats that on their base votes are at least 50-50 or even tilt slightly Democratic, the 34th District in the Muskegon area and the 38th in the Upper Peninsula, resulting in the party making no serious effort in either.

And in looking at the House, of the four seats Democrats now hold that they lost on Election Day, none – I repeat, none – were designed in a way to tilt the playing field to the GOP. The 62nd District, with Battle Creek and environs, is a seat with a majority Democratic base. Republicans actually made the 71st, lost by Rep. Theresa Abed (D-Grand Ledge), a bit more Democratic when they redrew it, as was the case with the 91st, lost by Rep. Collene Lamonte (D-Montague). The 84th (Huron and Tuscola counties) has had the same boundaries since at least 1992.

Some of the House seats Democrats hoped to gain – the 23rd (Downriver), the 39th (west central Oakland County), the 43rd (north-central Oakland County), the 56th (most of Monroe County), the 99th (Isabella and part of Midland counties) and the 106th (northeast Lower Peninsula) – indeed were tilted by Republicans to favor their candidates.

Still, the 23rd remains a Democratic district. The 56th is about as close to 50-50 as it gets. The 43rd would still favor the GOP even if drawn differently. And Democrats had major failures in the primaries in the 23rd and 106th where their preferred candidates lost.

Other competitive seats like the 41st (Troy and Clawson), 57th (Lenawee County), 61st (southwest Kalamazoo County), 85th (Shiawassee and part of Saginaw counties), the 101st (Lake Michigan shoreline north of Muskegon) and 108th (Bay de Noc area of the Upper Peninsula) saw no major changes in their political composition in redistricting.

So why did Democrats take a beating in the House and Senate races even as their gubernatorial candidate, Mark Schauer, lost by a respectable margin, their U.S. Senate candidate, Gary Peters, won huge, their party won seven of the eight statewide education board seats and their House and Senate candidates essentially took half the total vote for the House and Senate?

The answer is three-fold.

One, Democrats are packed together more tightly with many seats where they have a 70 percent advantage or better, so that brings up their total House and Senate votes.

Two, the Democratic turnout problem in the mid-term election is real. Their candidates lost the 62nd, 71st and 91st by a combined 915 votes. These were all seats where redistricting, if anything, should have helped the Democrats.

The other is that when it comes to state legislative elections, it pays not to be of the same party as the president.

Since 2004, the president’s party has lost an average of two seats in the three subsequent Senate elections and an average of seven seats in the six subsequent House elections.

The bottom line is that, yes, of course Democrats would have had the opportunity to fare better had they controlled the redistricting pen in 2011. But it would not have been determinative.

After all, Democrats took the House majority in 2006 with 58 seats and then bumped that up to 67 in 2008, all under a Republican-drawn plan they blasted when it was drawn in 2001 as a gerrymander.

GOP Poised For Huge Night Nationally, But Michigan Up For Grabs
Posted: November, 3 2014 1:28 PM

Based on polls, data modeling, chatter from politicos and the plain ol’ eye test, Republicans appear poised to thump Democrats nationally, padding their U.S. House majority and putting themselves in position to take control of the U.S. Senate.

I say “putting themselves in position” because Republicans could get to 50 seats tomorrow, but not officially get the majority until the outcome of runoffs in Georgia and Louisiana, where the Republicans will be favored.

Republicans are poised to pick up seats in Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia. Arkansas looks likely to flip to the GOP. But more worrisome for the Democrats are that states with more friendly Democratic terrain, Colorado and Iowa, look lost as well (though the Democrats are not completely out of it there). Alaska looks like another good possibility, although there is some hedging of late on that state. Still, even if the Republicans lose Kansas to an independent, those seven seats would get the Republicans to 51 and the majority, provided they either hold onto Georgia or flip Louisiana.

Yet, even as President Barack Obama’s numbers continue to falter nationally, even as polls continue to show an enthusiasm gap among Republican voters that favors the GOP, most Michigan Democrats are exuding confidence and many Michigan Republicans with whom I have spoken in the past week are getting very antsy.

It starts with the governor’s race.

Put simply, it could go either way. This looks like a contest where the winner will have 49 or 50 percent of the vote and the loser will have 47 or 48 percent of the vote, and right now I don’t feel terribly confident projecting either Republican Governor Rick Snyder or Democratic challenger Mark Schauer in the winner or loser column.

Then you have the U.S. Senate race, which Democratic U.S. Rep. Gary Peters has blown wide open and looks like at worst will defeat Republican Terri Land by a margin in the high single digits. Most likely, the margin will be in the double-digits.

There’s the much speculated question of whether the Michigan Democratic Party’s absentee ballot voter strategy will in fact yield a bump in Democratic voters statewide.

Moving down to the Michigan House, in the span of three weeks, the climate has gone from how many seats the Republicans could gain to Democrats on the offense with the chance to be the party that gains seats in the chamber.

It is unusual for Michigan to buck the national trend, but it happens. In 2004, John Kerry carried Michigan, and Democrats gained five seats in the Michigan House. But nationally, President George W. Bush won re-election and Republicans grew their U.S. Senate majority.

And in 1998, Democrats gained seats in Congress nationally as voters recoiled at the impeachment maneuvers against President Bill Clinton, but Republicans swept Michigan on the tsunami generated by Republican Governor John Engler routing the Democratic challenger, flamboyant attorney Geoffrey Fieger.

Add it all up, and tomorrow brings to mind longtime Detroit Red Wings television analyst Mickey Redmond’s line when the Wings go to overtime in the playoffs – “no place for a nervous person.”

Looking At The Michigan House Elections, Part 2
Posted: October, 30 2014 12:15 PM

One of the fun aspects about tracking the race for control of the Michigan House is that a week out from the election, there’s almost always a wide range of potential outcomes, and this year is no different.

Republicans now control the House 59-50 with one independent. But for the purposes of this election, think of it as 59-51 because that independent represents a solidly Democratic district and will be replaced in 2015 by a Democrat.

Today, we’ll look at the best potential Republican scenario. Yesterday’s blog was a look at the best-case Democratic possibility.

Mid-terms are generally favorable terrain for Republicans in the Michigan House. In the term limits era, from 1998 to the present, Republicans have averaged a gain of six seats in mid-terms. Democrats did gain seats in one of those elections, 2006, but that was a year when the top of the Democratic ticket won in blowouts and there was a huge national tide against President George W. Bush and the Republican-led Congress.

Those dynamics are not in place this year. But it’s also not shaping up as the bloodbath of 2010 when Republicans won everything and gained a stunning 20 seats in the House.

Even in the worst Republicans scenario, they are going to gain a seat, the 84th House District in the Thumb, where term limits prevents Rep. Terry Brown (D-Pigeon) from running again for the Republican-leaning seat. That means Republicans can still lose four seats and keep an outright majority. A five-seat loss leading to a 55-55 tie would unquestionably be a de facto win for the Democrats.

The focus always is on whether the party out of power can retake control, but in a mid-term, a just as relevant question is can the Republicans add to their existing majority.

And right now, there are good opportunities to add seats. Republican former Rep. Holly Hughes of Montague is waging her fourth bid for the 91st District, trying to unseat the woman who ousted her in 2012, Rep. Collene Lamonte (D-Montague). Ms. Hughes lost in 2008, won in 2010 and lost in 2012.

Suburban Muskegon County voters seem to enjoy booting their incumbents for whatever reason, and given how slim Ms. Lamonte’s victory in 2012 was, this is going to be a very tough hold for the Democrats. That could be the second pick-up for the GOP.

Then there’s Rep. Theresa Abed (D-Grand Ledge). She became the first Democrat in 50 years to win her Eaton County seat in the 71st District, and Republicans have a strong challenger. Again, this is a tough hold. That could be pick-up number three.

The next three potential seats are tougher. Republicans love their candidates against Rep. Winnie Brinks (D-Grand Rapids) and Rep. Henry Yanez (D-Sterling Heights), but those should be slightly easier holds for the Democrats than the 71st and 91st.

In the 62nd District in Battle Creek and environs, Republicans have a strong candidate in John Bizon, a well-known and well-funded physician, and if it wasn’t for this district leaning Democratic, he would be the prohibitive favorite.

The problem for the GOP is that it will likely lose some of its seats. Losing the 56th District in Monroe County and 61st District in southwest Kalamazoo County looks highly possible, maybe even probable, after candidate miscues. Rep. Martin Howrylak (R-Troy) is on the ropes in the 41st District. Rep. Kevin Cotter (R-Mount Pleasant) is in the fight of his political life in the 99th.

If we give the Republicans four pick-ups (the Thumb seat, the Battle Creek seat as well as ousting two of the four Democratic incumbents), that gets the GOP to 63 seats. But it is hard to see them holding onto the 56th and 61st unless the overall Republican ticket has a much better night than expected. The GOP could keep the rest of its seats, if narrowly.

That caps the best possible scenario for Republicans at 61 seats. That would give the party a solid, if not overwhelming, five-seat cushion heading into the 2016 election when the combination of a presidential year and a slew of open seats in competitive districts where Republican incumbents cannot seek re-election because of term limits makes the dynamics favorable to the Democrats.

So to recap, on Tuesday, the House could be anywhere from a 55-55 tie after a four-seat Democratic gain to a 61-49 Republican majority after a two-seat gain.

History is on the Republicans’ side. But as I noted in a previous blog, Michigan has not seen a complex top of the ticket dynamic like this in the term limits era.

Looking At the Michigan House Elections
Posted: October, 29 2014 1:39 PM

One of the fun aspects about tracking the race for control of the Michigan House is that a week out from the election, there’s almost always a wide range of potential outcomes, and this year is no different.

Republicans now control the House 59-50 with one independent. But for the purposes of this election, think of it as 59-51 because that independent represents a solidly Democratic district and will be replaced in 2015 by a Democrat.

Today, we’ll look at the best potential Democratic scenario and Thursday, the Republicans’ best-case outcome.

Mid-terms are generally tough sledding for Democrats in the Michigan House. In the term limits era, from 1998 to the present, Republicans have averaged a gain of six seats. Democrats did gain seats in one of those elections, 2006, but that was a year when the top of the Democratic ticket won in blowouts and there was a huge national tide against President George W. Bush and the Republican-led Congress.

Those dynamics are not in place this year. But it’s also not shaping up as the bloodbath of 2010 when Republicans won everything and gained a stunning 20 seats in the House.

Even in the best Democratic scenario, they are going to lose a seat, the 84th House District in the Thumb, where term limits prevents Rep. Terry Brown (D-Pigeon) from running again for the Republican-leaning seat. That means Democrats will have to flip six other now GOP seats to gain control – and keep all their other seats.

So what is the best-case Democratic scenario? Number one, other than the 84th, they have to keep all their existing seats, and that is going to be tough. Republicans are coming after four Democratic incumbents in a big way – Rep. Theresa Abed of Grand Ledge, Rep. Winnie Brinks of Grand Rapids, Rep. Collene Lamonte of Montague and Rep. Henry Yanez of Sterling Heights.

And a fifth seat, the 62nd District in Battle Creek and environs, is under major pressure with Rep. Kate Segal (D-Battle Creek) unable to run again because of term limits. Republicans have a strong candidate although the seat leans Democratic.

But it is possible through incumbency and the Democratic base in Battle Creek that the Democrats could keep all five. Can they gain six seats? Now that looks very difficult.

There are two seats where Democrats stand a great chance thanks to Republican candidate miscues, the 56th District in Monroe County and the 61st District in southwest Kalamazoo County, both of which have no incumbent running. Democrats are well-positioned in the 41st District in Troy against first-term Rep. Martin Howrylak (R-Troy). That’s probably their third best-bet for a pick-up. A fourth possibility is unseating first-term Rep. Klint Kesto (R-Commerce Township) although he is in better shape than Mr. Howrylak.

After that? Well, that’s where it gets tough. The remaining seats either feature Democrats trying to win districts that lean Republican, have a Republican incumbent seeking a third term, or both.

The significance of trying to oust a first-term incumbent vs. a second-term incumbent is big. Since term limits started, 19 incumbents have lost re-election in the general election, and only four were second-term incumbents (one of whom was undermined by redistricting, another was suffering from cancer that would lead to her death not long after the election and a third fell into scandal in his second term).

But there just are not many competitive seats with no incumbent or a first-term Republican incumbent, and to get to majority, Democrats have to take a shot at a few “veterans” (in the term limits era, two terms in the House makes someone a veteran).

Democrats are targeting Rep. Patrick Somerville (R-New Boston), Rep. Ray Franz (R-Onekama), Rep. Ben Glardon (R-Owosso), Rep. Kevin Cotter (R-Mount Pleasant), Rep. Peter Pettalia (R-Presque Isle) and maybe Rep. Ed McBroom (R-Vulcan) out of necessity.

Then there are five open seats in traditionally Republican areas where Democrats think they could catch a break thanks to strong Democratic candidates, weak Republican ones, or both.

The two where Democrats seem the most encouraged, based on where they are spending money, are the 43rd District in Oakland County and the 104th District in Grand Traverse County. In both cases, there are Republican candidates getting outspent and strong Democratic candidates working hard.

However, in all five of these seats, the Republican base is anywhere from 55 to 59 percent. That is a steep hill for any Democrat, no matter how strong, to climb, especially in a mid-term cycle.

Just winning one of these 11 races against second-term GOP incumbents or in Republican territory, especially with the overall dynamics, would be a major triumph.

That’s why it’s hard to see Democrats doing any better than 55 seats next Tuesday. The Democrats would surely take that. It would mean a 55-55 split, shared power and the ability to put the brakes on the Republican agenda.

The Political Ads We Have Yet To See
Posted: October, 24 2014 12:45 PM

As is always the case in the October of an election year, it is impossible to turn on the television and not see campaign advertisements.

What is interesting to me right now is the ads not airing, as in, which topics have the gubernatorial candidates and their allies emphasized in their news releases and comments to reporters, but not put their money where their mouth is when it comes to placing those messages on television.

On the side of the Democrats and their candidate, Mark Schauer, the big surprise to me right now is the lack of a real push on the troubled Aramark prison food services and other “scandals” they have emphasized about the administration of Republican Governor Rick Snyder.

The advertising message from Mr. Schauer, the Democratic Governors Association and now a labor group Working Voice, is simple and consistent: Mr. Snyder taxed pensions, cut taxes for big corporations and cut $1 billion from K-12 schools. Some of these ads also mention the substantial pay raises that Department of Treasury staff in charge of the state’s investments received, but that is as far as the ads go in playing the scandal card.

The liberal group Progress Michigan is stepping up its efforts on the Aramark contract, announcing today a second cable television buy to draw attention to the issue (though that will not likely come close to match the emphasis other entities have put on the pension tax and education funding). No ad attention has been paid to various transparency issues Democrats have played up all year on Mr. Snyder’s now defunct nonprofit fund and the troubles of his now resigned Michigan State Housing Development Authority chief, Scott Woosley, after the Michigan Democratic Party uncovered questionable expenses he billed.

Mr. Schauer also has yet to air an ad that lets voters see a lighter side of him that also emphasizes a key trait he would bring to governing along the lines of Mr. Snyder’s 2010 “One Tough Nerd” ad or Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Gary Peters’ “Frugal” ad.

On the Republican side, for all the emphasis the party has put on Mr. Schauer holding the distinction of having the largest campaign finance fine in Michigan history as a result of violating the Michigan Campaign Finance Act while he was the Senate minority leader, that has yet to show up in an ad.

And there are Republicans wondering why Mr. Snyder has yet to play a little more offense and tout his record, specifically on Detroit, where the city is poised to emerge from bankruptcy in much better financial shape.

These omissions raise the question of whether the parties tested them as potential messages and saw them flounder with voters or if they simply concluded their money was best spent on a few targeted messages.

Justifiable Outrage Over A Facebook Post
Posted: October, 17 2014 1:50 PM

We have apparently reached the point in politics where someone cannot post a photo on Facebook congratulating her parents on their wedding anniversary without one of her political foes seeing it as license to launch an attack.

Jennifer Gratz, the woman largely responsible for ending the use of race and gender in university admissions in Michigan, posted a photo of her parents with herself and other family members to congratulate her parents on their 45th wedding anniversary. There was nothing political about it, just the kind of nice family photo that is typical Facebook currency.

But Joan Fabiano, a well-known tea party activist from Ingham County, was still seething about Ms. Gratz’s decision to support a U.S. District judge’s ruling in Detroit overturning Michigan’s ban on same-sex marriage (editor's note, this post corrected on Ms. Fabiano's county of residence). So she took the liberty to comment on the post.

“Unfollowing Jennifer Gratz after she joined 24 other ‘Republicans’ in a friend-of-the-court brief arguing that U.S. District Judge Bernard Friedman’s decision to strike down Michigan’s ban (Michigan's CONSTITUTION) on same-sex marriage should be upheld,” Ms. Fabiano wrote.

She then quoted what she said was a comment on Ms. Gratz’s Facebook page from when Ms. Gratz decided to support Mr. Friedman’s decision.

“Unbelievable,” Ms. Fabiano quoted that person as having written. “To fight special preferences based on race and support special preferences based upon sexual conduct is indeed the height of hypocrisy.”

“Indeed!” Ms. Fabiano closed.

The reaction was immediate. David Forsmark, who has worked with tea party Republican candidates, said it was “Seriously inappropriate.”

Ms. Fabiano was undeterred in her response.

“Your (sic) right. Sorry to offend. However, undermining our Constitution and then going about your business is more than ‘seriously inappropriate,’ its (sic) dangerous,” she responded.

Some of Ms. Gratz’s relatives chimed in, expressing befuddlement at how the post had turned political. Many others just posted congratulations to Ms. Gratz’s parents.

Then Ms. Gratz ripped Ms. Fabiano.

“It is truly in poor taste and, frankly, lacking political savvy to use a post in which I congratulate my parents for a happy 45 years of marriage to push a political agenda,” she wrote. “I believe and I've said many times that good people can disagree, but those who know no boundaries within political disagreements are pushing the level of discourse in this country in the wrong direction. I'm leaving the post by Joan on this thread because I believe it says more about her than anyone else. Thanks to the rest of you for acknowledging and congratulating my parents.”

Ms. Gratz also could have quoted Joseph Welch, the attorney who effectively ended the rabid anti-Communist Sen. Joseph McCarthy’s relevancy by interrupting one of his outlandish accusations with one of the most memorable lines in American history.

“Have you no sense of decency?"

Debating The Debate, One Day Later
Posted: October, 13 2014 12:28 PM

Having had 17 hours to ponder last night’s debate between Republican Governor Rick Snyder and Democratic challenger Mark Schauer, a few items seem clear.

On points, the parlance for which candidate “won” more of the questions, the nod goes to Mr. Snyder. He beat back most of Mr. Schauer’s attacks, and while he lost a couple rounds – the pension tax and gay marriage exchanges – he came out ahead or even on most others.

As the incumbent, and with a lead in the polls, that’s clearly a plus for Mr. Snyder.

On broad themes, both men executed their strategies well. Mr. Schauer emphasized he would put public education first and focus on the middle class in his economic strategy. Mr. Snyder talked up Michigan’s economic rebound and warned of the risks of going back to the strategies the state had before he took office.

But considering Mr. Snyder must see some voter unrest about the current economy in Michigan, witness his ad in September in which he acknowledged some might not feel the state’s recovery yet, Mr. Schauer comes out ahead on this score for having more resonant themes.

For Mr. Schauer, who badly needs to persuade voters just getting to know him to change leaders, this was important.

On style, and let’s remember debates are as much, maybe more, about style than substance, the tone of the two men could not have been more different.

Mr. Schauer was even-keeled in his tone of voice, yet seemed nervous at times, especially at the beginning, halting in his delivery, almost like he was trying to remember what he was supposed say. This happened again a couple other times during the debate. The passion and confidence he showed in going after Mr. Snyder on his gay marriage question dodge would have served him well throughout the debate.

Mr. Schauer also called Mr. Snyder “Rick” throughout the debate, and that seemed a risk at appearing disrespectful.

Mr. Snyder exuded confidence throughout the debate and showed more passion than he ever has, attacking Mr. Schauer early and often, parrying Mr. Schauer’s attacks and – other than the gay marriage question – responding aggressively to every shot Mr. Schauer fired.

But at times Mr. Snyder sounded uncharacteristically angry. For those of us in the media who follow the governor closely, this was new and different and in the context of the sparring match nature of a debate, seemed to suit him well.

However, for less engaged voters, Mr. Snyder might have sounded defensive, even like he was losing his cool. That is at odds with the brand Mr. Snyder has built of a pragmatic manager.

We’ll also look at attire. Laugh if you like, but debate attire might very well have decided the 1960 presidential election. It matters. It was surprising, at least to this observer, that Mr. Snyder did not wear a tie for the debate. He usually goes sans tie, but generally wears one for major events (and wore one at the debate four years ago). Mr. Schauer’s reddish tie on a white shirt popped on-screen compared to Mr. Snyder’s light blue shirt and jacket.

The last element of a debate is the post-debate coverage from the news media.

In looking at the front pages of The Detroit News and especially the Detroit Free Press, the Schauer team had to be doing a happy dance. Mr. Schauer looked in command in both photos that ran big while Mr. Snyder was in the background in both, and in the Free Press photo looked irritated.

But most media analysts in the early going gave the nod to Mr. Snyder in the debate, either because he won “on points” or simply because he committed no errors and as the incumbent leading in the polls, that was all he needed to do. Some also pointed to Mr. Schauer seeming to lack enough passion or missing opportunities to zing Mr. Snyder (especially on the minimum wage).

And Mr. Schauer committed an unforced error in not showing up for the post-debate scrum.

The one clear loser was the crowd who thinks debates are overrated and just something for the media and political elites. In the Detroit media market, the debate drew a 7.8 rating, meaning 140,000 households watched. The debate aired in most markets in the state. Ratings for those markets were not immediately available.

But clearly, a big chunk of voters were interested in what the two candidates had to say.

First Take: Schauer Plays Offense, Snyder Responds Aggressively
Posted: October, 12 2014 7:05 PM

The gubernatorial debate between Republican Governor Rick Snyder and the Democratic challenger, Mark Schauer, has concluded after one hour of Mr. Schauer attacking Mr. Snyder’s record and Mr. Snyder responding in the most aggressive fashion he ever has.

Mr. Schauer, at times haltingly, at times tenaciously, went after Mr. Snyder on a variety of topics from K-12 schools to gay marriage to the state’s contract with Aramark for prison food service.

He seemed especially sure-footed when Mr. Snyder refused to offer a position on gay marriage.

But Mr. Snyder parried most of Mr. Schauer’s attacks and at times put Mr. Schauer on the defense, blaming him for the Michigan Business Tax and the 2007 partial government shutdown. He did not call Mr. Schauer a liar on the allegation Mr. Schauer has lobbed at the governor, accusing him of cutting K-12 education by $1 billion, but used the “lies” word in his answer.

Mr. Snyder got especially testy when Mr. Schauer went after the furniture contract Mr. Snyder’s cousin has with the state.

During the debate, Mr. Schauer referred to Mr. Snyder as “Rick” repeatedly while Mr. Snyder referred to Mr. Schauer as “the congressman.”

Aramark Rears Its Head In Debate
Posted: October, 12 2014 6:51 PM

Democratic gubernatorial candidate Mark Schauer took a question about how to improve the Department of Corrections as an opportunity to hammer Republican Governor Rick Snyder on the contract his administration awarded to Aramark for prison food service.

“That contract never should have been awarded in the first place,” he said, citing the various issues of maggots in the food and problem employees since Aramark took over. “It has been a debacle.”

Mr. Snyder defended the contract and noted he fined the company $200,000.

“Aramark has been successful in multiple other states,” he said. “The congressman would just throw them out. I don’t know about you, but I try to work with someone before you just throw them out.”

A Debate Exchange On Detroit
Posted: October, 12 2014 6:33 PM

Republican Governor Rick Snyder and Democratic challenger Mark Schauer just had a sharp exchange about how Mr. Snyder handled the financial emergency in Detroit.

Mr. Schauer said he did not question the need to put the city into bankruptcy, but that he would have personally led the situation instead of putting an unelected appointee in charge. He accused Mr. Snyder of throwing city retirees under the bus by cutting pensions.

Mr. Snyder retorted those involved had not thrown retirees under the bus, but put together the grand bargain to mitigate cuts and questioned how Mr. Schauer would have addressed the city’s unfunded liabilities.

Debate Takes A Testy Turn
Posted: October, 12 2014 6:24 PM

Democratic gubernatorial candidate Mark Schauer is lobbing one volley after another at Republican Governor Rick Snyder, and a shot about Mr. Snyder’s cousin having a furniture contract with the state clearly irritated Mr. Snyder.

Mr. Schauer said one way to pay for repealing the pension tax is to end the contract Mr. Snyder’s cousin, George Snyder, has had with the state for many years.

That prompted a sharp retort from Mr. Snyder.

“Let’s get the facts straight on that,” he said. “I think it’s somewhat disgusting that he’s impinging on a good person’s name.”

The $1B Question On K-12 Comes Up First In Debate
Posted: October, 12 2014 6:13 PM

Democratic gubernatorial candidate Mark Schauer stood by his allegation of Governor Rick Snyder cutting $1 billion from K-12 schools in the first question of tonight’s gubernatorial debate while Mr. Snyder said it was simply untrue.

Mr. Schauer cited a Senate Fiscal Agency document showing a $930 million reduction in the 2011-12 fiscal year while Mr. Snyder said total K-12 spending is up $1.1 billion since he took office. He said the cut was irrefutable.

Mr. Snyder cited the Detroit Free Press to back him up while Mr. Schauer urged viewers to talk to a teacher about what they are confronting in the schools.

Mr. Snyder did not call Mr. Schauer a liar, but said, “Unfortunately our broken political system has people making up lies.”

Sunday’s Debate: Opportunities And Landmines For Schauer, Snyder
Posted: October, 10 2014 3:58 PM

Sunday is the lone gubernatorial debate between Republican Governor Rick Snyder and Democratic challenger Mark Schauer, and both candidates will have opportunities to score rhetorical wins and maybe more so some major trapdoors to avoid.

Some don’t like breaking down elections in a similar fashion as sports. I am not one of those people. So I’m going to break this down in sports-ish way.

SNYDER OPPORTUNITIES

ARE YOU BETTER OFF NOW THAN YOU WERE FOUR YEARS AGO?: Some polls have shown the percentage of people seeing the state on the right track climbing to its highest level in years. Mr. Snyder will remind viewers early and often of the job growth during his first term and sharp decline in the unemployment rate. Mr. Schauer will say most of that job growth came in Mr. Snyder’s first year and is due to the recovery of the auto industry and not Mr. Snyder’s tax policies (and he would be correct), but if the debate is all about who gets credit for job growth in the past four years, Mr. Snyder wins that argument. He’s the incumbent.

BUDGETS: The completion of budgets no later than mid-June in the past four years stands in sharp contrast to before Mr. Snyder became governor. Mr. Snyder could remind a public that grew disgusted with the partisan showdowns that led to partial government shutdowns in 2007 and 2009 that Mr. Schauer was in the Legislature in 2007 in the “bad, old days.”

POPULAR SUCCESSES: Mr. Snyder can tout efforts that had broad support, such as the expansion of Medicaid and signing an agreement with Canada for a new bridge connecting Detroit and Windsor, Ontario, to emphasize his administration’s successes on items with broad appeal to the public. The rescue of Detroit also could fall under this realm. The initial bankruptcy was controversial, but it appears on its way to remarkable success in putting the city back on a solid financial footing.

SNYDER VULNERABILITIES

ARAMARK/EAA/FLAPS: Mr. Snyder will have to be careful not to get carried away with how much better state government is run now because otherwise Mr. Schauer will have the opportunity hammer him on problems with the Aramark contract for prison food services.

SOCIAL ISSUES: Mr. Snyder is famous for sidestepping questions on social issues like gay marriage. The issue was nowhere near as prominent in 2010 as it is now. A dodge on this question could make the governor look indecisive and allow Mr. Schauer an opening.

PENSION TAX: Mr. Snyder will have to finesse this one carefully. Mr. Schauer is sure to raise it, and the governor will likely emphasize – as he has of late – that the tax was designed to address the issue of people retiring in their 50s and paying no income tax. Talking about the tax being a matter of “fairness,” as the governor has in the past, is trouble.

SCHAUER OPPORTUNITIES

INTRODUCING HIMSELF: Beyond the television ads, most Michigan voters are just getting to know Mr. Schauer. The debate is his best opportunity to make voters comfortable with the idea of him as governor, leading the state. He will need to bring many of his answers back to the fundamentals of his campaign – improving traditional public schools and growing the middle class – and his life experiences.

LINK SNYDER TO THE MOST CONSERVATIVE ITEMS HE HAS SIGNED: This election is likely going to be decided in Oakland County. Mr. Snyder won it in a rout four years ago, and a Republican cannot win statewide without piling up a good margin there. When social issues arise, Mr. Schauer will need to seize the opportunity to show he is in line with the county’s socially liberal voters.

ARAMARK, ARAMARK, ARAMARK: Mr. Snyder still retains decent favorability ratings. One way to dent that is to remind the public of the salacious problems linked to the Snyder administration hiring Aramark to handle prison food service – improper intimate contact between Aramark workers and inmates, food quality problems and now an alleged murder-for-hire scandal.

SCHAUER VULNERABILITIES

ROADS: Fixing the state’s roads is a top issue, but Mr. Schauer has offered no plan on how he would find more money to solve the problem. The question is sure to come up, and if Mr. Schauer still has no specifics, the governor will pounce. Yes, Mr. Snyder has been unable to persuade the Legislature to act, and some of his fixes are incredibly unpopular, but having a plan is better than no plan at all. The debate could offer Mr. Schauer a high-profile opportunity unveil one.

DETROIT: If someone asks Mr. Schauer how he would have handled the Detroit situation and he criticizes the decision to put the city into bankruptcy, the panel’s moderators, the editorial page editors of the Detroit Free Press and The Detroit News, are going to press him for specifics. That’s a no-win situation because if Mr. Schauer plays it safe and talks about how he would have worked with the local officials, he will get pilloried for offering the same prescription that failed for decades. A more specific answer could trip up Mr. Schauer as well because it will get closely dissected.

THE $1 BILLION CUT TO K-12: Mr. Schauer isn’t backing down from his charge that Mr. Snyder cut K-12 funding by $1 billion. Mr. Snyder has called the charge a lie. The bigger problem is that the Free Press called it a “big and persistent lie” and it’s easy to envision Mr. Snyder saying something like, “Don’t take my word for it. The state’s largest newspaper said it’s a lie too.” Mr. Schauer will have to find a way to make his central point – that the state’s traditional public schools are worse off now than they were before Mr. Snyder – without giving Mr. Snyder, and the panel, the opportunity to call him a liar.

Schauer Needs Own ‘Frugal’ Ad
Posted: October, 6 2014 5:02 PM

Democrats and Republicans with whom I’ve spoken agree that the best ad of the election cycle in Michigan this year is the spot from U.S. Rep. Gary Peters, the Democratic candidate in the U.S. Senate race, starring the candidate, his wife and daughters mocking him for being frugal with his beat up sweatshirt, worn out shoes and ancient washing machine he refuses to replace.

The spot gives viewers a feel for Mr. Peters the person amid the sea of negative television advertising pillorying other candidates running for office. It cannot be an accident that polls started to show Mr. Peters’ lead increasing once “Frugal” began running following a period of tightening in mid-September between Mr. Peters and the Republican, Terri Land.

While talking politics with a source today, this source had a take, and it makes complete sense: Democratic gubernatorial candidate Mark Schauer needs a similar ad.

There have been plenty of ads featuring Mr. Schauer talking about the need to better fund K-12 schools and criticizing Republican Governor Rick Snyder’s policies, and that is all well and good – and a necessary part of the message. But if Mr. Schauer is going to win this race, it will have to be more than running as the anti-Snyder. Running as the anti-Snyder has put him into the game, but to have a shot at closing the deal with voters, he will need to give them a feel for who he is as a person.

The first ad from the Democratic Governors Association saw Mr. Schauer talk a bit about his parents, but he needs something more. That’s going to be especially critical as Republicans step up attacks on his credibility in the final month.

Mr. Snyder did that in 2010 with his “one tough nerd” message. Voters may disapprove of his policies, but he has always retained decent favorable/unfavorable ratings (49 percent favorable, 40 percent unfavorable in the last EPIC/MRA poll).

Mr. Schauer is scheduled to go back on the air soon. His ad-makers are going to need to haul out something along the lines of Mr. Peters’ ratty sweatshirt to give him a chance to close the sale.

Key Moment In U.S. Senate Race Arrives Friday
Posted: October, 2 2014 5:21 PM

For nearly the entire U.S. Senate race, Republican Terri Land has avoided situations where she would have to answer sustained questioning from reporters.

She has done some radio interviews, mostly with friendly hosts and for short sessions lasting less than 10 minutes.

Ms. Land also has done some short interviews with outstate reporters.

She has done three media scrums, the infamous one on Mackinac Island she did not want to do that was a fiasco when she appeared extremely uncomfortable and awkwardly sidestepped questions, one she arranged in Lansing that lasted for about three minutes after an event that went much more smoothly and then another short one in Charlotte more recently

But unlike her Democratic opponent, U.S. Rep. Gary Peters, she has repeatedly refused one-on-one interviews with print reporters covering the campaign. After one event in Lansing during the summer, Mr. Peters took questions for almost 20 minutes. He also has made himself available for telephone interviews and is generally accessible.

At no point has there been any kind of a chance to dig in deep with Ms. Land on her proposals or her criticism of Mr. Peters.

That all changes at 9 a.m. Friday.

Set your radio dials for your local Michigan Public Radio Network station because Ms. Land is scheduled to appear for one hour on its “Michigan Calling” program with Rick Pluta. Ms. Land agreed to appear shortly after the Mackinac Island disaster and unless the two candidates agree to a debate, it could be the one time Ms. Land faces sustained questioning in public for an extended period about the campaign.

MLive is holding its editorial board interview with Ms. Land in public and will livestream it, but it’s unclear how that first-of-its-kind session will shake out. “Michigan Calling” has been a staple of the election calendar for years and is known for its tough but fair format.

Democrats to say the least are brimming with anticipation. Progress Michigan is openly trying to recruit people to jam MPRN’s phone lines with assuredly hostile questions for Ms. Land.

Ms. Land has come under scathing criticism for her campaign style of mostly staying out of the public eye, getting dubbed the “invisible candidate” by the conservative U.S. News and World Report. Friday is going to be the most visible day Ms. Land has had in her 15 months as a candidate, and a whole lot of radios will be tuned to NPR come 9 a.m.

How Kansas Could Refocus Senate Control On Michigan
Posted: September, 30 2014 1:25 PM

There’s not a whole lot of history connecting Kansas and Michigan, save for Michigan Governor Epaphroditus Ransom (1848-50) receiving an appointment from President James Buchanan in 1857 as receiver of the Osage land office in Kansas (and thanks to George Weeks’ “Stewards of the State” for that factoid).

But the current politics in Kansas could have a significant spillover effect on those in Michigan in the next month.

Based on polling averages as well as leading election models, Republicans are on their way to picking up the six currently Democratic seats they need to win control of the U.S. Senate, now with a functional 55-45 Democratic majority that includes some independents. Montana, West Virginia and South Dakota have long been virtually locked up for the GOP, and increasingly Louisiana, Arkansas and Alaska look like victories as well.

So Republicans can virtually taste a 51-49 majority and the prospect of U.S. Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Kentucky) replacing U.S. Sen. Harry Reid (D-Nevada) as majority leader, right?

Well, maybe not. And that brings us to Kansas.

The longtime Republican incumbent, U.S. Sen. Pat Roberts, is unexpectedly in dire straits. He narrowly survived a primary fight and now has an independent candidate (unofficially expected to side with the Democrats although he has not indicated his plans) surging against what most have said is Mr. Roberts’ moribund campaign organization. Additionally, Democrats in this usually Republican state are on the upswing and could take the governor’s office as well.

If Mr. Roberts loses alongside the six Republican pick-ups noted earlier, that drops the Senate to a 50-50 tie with Vice President Joe Biden breaking the tie allowing Democrats to retain at least some sense of control. There would likely be a power-sharing arrangement along the lines of what occurred during a brief tie in 2002, but it would be a huge save for the Democrats compared to falling into an outright minority.

That’s where Michigan comes in. Republicans still have other opportunities for a 51st seat, and Michigan remains one of them despite the well-documented troubles of the Republican candidate, former Secretary of State Terri Land.

Targets 1a and 1b for the Republicans would be Iowa and Colorado, respectively. The Republican candidates are running well in both states, especially Iowa, and the Democratic candidate in Iowa has struggled. North Carolina had seemed a promising prospect for some time, but U.S. Sen. Kay Hagan (D-North Carolina), while not safe, has proven resilient.

Ms. Land continues to get horrific coverage for her low-profile campaign with National Public Radio’s Don Gonyea the latest to examine the situation. Her favorable/unfavorable numbers are terribly underwater and she has shown no sign in virtually any minimally credible poll of upward movement in her support against the Democrat, U.S. Rep. Gary Peters.

But one thing that has helped Ms. Land this month is that the outside groups airing ads supporting her have the better message than the outside groups favoring Mr. Peters. The messages hitting Mr. Peters on hypocrisy and tying him to an unpopular President Barack Obama have a much better chance of moving numbers than those from Democratic-aligned groups continuing to assail Ms. Land on the environment and the Koch brothers. The fuel of those arguments was long ago exhausted.

Indeed, Mr. Peters’ support has fallen a bit though Ms. Land remains stuck at about 40 percent. That latter point eventually could have prompted outside groups to pull out of the race sooner than later. But with Kansas up in the air, Republicans will need fallback plans to ensure 51 seats, and Iowa, Colorado and North Carolina remain too close to call.

As much as Mr. Peters is the favorite, his room to grow is limited as a result of the Land and GOP ads damaging his favorability numbers as well as the unpopularity of Mr. Obama.

Ms. Land’s upward movement is limited as well, but if Republicans conclude they need to go all-in on Michigan, it could mean even more ads in the next month in hopes of knocking Mr. Peters down to 40 percent in the polls to put this race in play.

Remember Bleeding Kansas? This could be Bleeding Michigan. As in, our eyes bleeding from the ads.

A Fundraising Email Without The Silliness
Posted: September, 26 2014 1:13 PM

Emails from candidates seeking donations continue to fill inboxes around the country to the point where even the most loyal partisans get fed up with not only the inundation, but the ridiculous pitches from their own side.

The worst offender has to be the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee with its absurd email subject lines taunting the Republican leader in the U.S. Senate, U.S. Sen. Mitch McConnell of Kentucky. Such as:

“MCCONNELL OUT”

“MCCONNELL CRUSHED”

“MCCONNELL KICKS DOGS”

Okay, the third one I made up, but it’s actually not that improbable that the DSCC would roll that out.

Another hilarious tactic from various candidates is to urge donations because of a “deadline” that one would assume is the last day to donate prior to the close of books on a reporting period so that the candidate can show a good haul when disclosing fundraising a couple weeks later. Often, there is no such actual deadline, just an artificial or fabricated one.

The other tactic that cracks me up is the use of doomsday subject lines such as:

“DISASTER”

“TERRIBLE NEWS”

“DETROIT LIONS”

Okay, again, I made the third one up, but I bet a candidate might be able to raise some non-traditional cash in Michigan if he or she somehow convinced voters a donation might make the Lions a winner.

So when an email rolled in the other day from the Democratic U.S. Senate candidate in Michigan, U.S. Rep. Gary Peters, with the subject line, “I’m asking for money,” it was much more attention-grabbing than the usual screaming subject line because it was so mellow.

I guess we’ll know whether it worked or not based on whether the next Peters fundraising email continues that theme or busts out the “Caps Lock” button with the traditional more frantic candidate themes.

Environment For Legislative Races Increasingly Unpredictable
Posted: September, 10 2014 2:20 PM

In the term limits era, the prevailing national mood and/or outcome of the gubernatorial or presidential race has generally dictated which party gains seats in the Michigan Legislature.

But increasingly it looks like a complicated environment in Michigan, one that we have not seen in the term limits era. For the first time since term limits started sweeping out incumbents starting with the 1998 election in the Michigan House, Michigan has extremely competitive races for both governor and U.S. Senate. Michigan also has only seen one instance of hotly competitive races for president and U.S. Senate, but because this is a mid-term cycle, let’s take a look at what happened in 1998, 2002, 2006 and 2010.

1998

National environment: Democratic. Voters responded negatively to the impeachment proceedings against President Bill Clinton.

Michigan environment: Republican. Democrats incredibly nominated unpopular attorney Geoffrey Fieger for governor, whom Governor John Engler drubbed with more than 60 percent of the vote. There was no U.S. Senate race.

Result: Republicans gained six seats in the House and one seat in the Senate.

2002

National environment: Republican. President George W. Bush was riding a wave of popularity following his response to the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, and put Democrats on the defensive about going to war against Iraq.

Michigan environment: Mixed. Democrat Jennifer Granholm won the governorship by 4 percentage points, too close to provide any coattails. U.S. Sen. Carl Levin (D-Detroit) won re-election with more than 60 percent of the vote, but it was a non-competitive race that did nothing to alter the overall environment. This election also was the first after Republicans had total control of redistricting for the first time.

Result: Republicans gained five seats in the House while Democrats gained one seat in the Senate.

2006

National environment: Democratic. Voters were upset with Mr. Bush about the problems with the Iraq war, and the Republican-led Congress was unpopular.

Michigan environment: Democratic. Ms. Granholm and U.S. Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Lansing) both won re-election with 56 percent of the vote. The governor’s race was fiercely fought. Ms. Stabenow was not seriously challenged.

Result: Democrats gained six seats in the House and one seat in the Senate.

2010

National environment: Republican. GOP voters were furious with President Barack Obama and the Democratic-led Congress and turned out in force. Independents sided with the GOP as well.

Michigan environment: Republican. After eight years of Ms. Granholm, who by this time was deeply unpopular, voters elected Rick Snyder in a landslide with 58 percent of the vote. There was no U.S. Senate race.

Result: Republicans gained 20 seats in the House and four seats in the Senate.

Today, the national environment appears to favor Republicans although not as much as in 2010. Mr. Obama is unpopular and his numbers are getting worse.

Let’s presume for a moment that the current polls hold and either Mr. Schauer or Mr. Snyder barely wins the governor’s race by a point or two and Democratic U.S. Rep. Gary Peters wins the U.S. Senate race over Republican Terri Land by 4-6 points.

That should make it a relatively even playing field, even with Mr. Obama’s problems, for legislative candidates in key races for the Senate and more importantly the House where control there is in play. That will put a premium on candidate quality, door-to-door effort and individual fundraising to a much greater extent than we have seen in years.

This is creating some unease among House Republicans, where they had expected to have a strong Republican wind at their backs as they seek to keep their 59-seat majority. Still, they are going to add a seat now in Democratic hands in the Thumb.

That means Democrats are going to need to win six seats now held by Republicans to win the House majority. Can they do that in a neutral political environment? The betting has to be no, but there is no recent precedent for what will happen in a mid-term when both sides battle to a draw at the top of the ticket.

Polling The Third Party Candidates
Posted: September, 9 2014 12:40 PM

The latest poll out today on the governor’s and U.S. Senate races has a unique twist – it includes the third party candidates running for those offices.

And the inclusion of Libertarian Mary Buzuma, Green Paul Homeniuk and U.S. Taxpayers candidate Mark McFarlin with Republican Governor Rick Snyder and Democrat Mark Schauer in the governor’s race, as well as Libertarian Jim Fulner, Green Chris Wahmhoff and U.S. Taxpayers candidate Richard Matkin in the U.S. Senate race had an interesting effect on the survey.

When all candidates were included in the survey from Public Policy Polling, Mr. Snyder had 43 percent, Mr. Schauer 42 percent, Ms. Buzuma 3 percent, Mr. McFarlin 2 percent and Mr. Homeniuk 1 percent. The third party candidates’ combined support is 6 percent.

In the U.S. Senate race, Democratic U.S. Rep. Gary Peters had 43 percent, Republican Terri Land 36 percent, Mr. Fulner 4 percent, Mr. Matkin 2 percent and Mr. Wahmhoff 1 percent. The third party candidates’ combined support is 7 percent.

But when the survey asked participants only about the major party candidates, Mr. Snyder had 46 percent to 44 percent for Mr. Schauer and Mr. Peters had 45 percent to 40 percent for Ms. Land.

On the one hand, it only seems fair to include all the candidates in the poll. They’re on the ballot too.

But the history of third party candidates in statewide major races in Michigan suggests there is absolutely no chance they will combine for 6 to 7 percent of the vote.

In averaging the last seven governor’s and U.S. Senate races combined in Michigan since 2002, the average combined vote for third party candidates was 2.08 percent with a high water mark of 3.51 percent in the 2008 U.S. Senate race.

Going back a bit further, the best third party combined performance in recent memory was in the 1994 U.S. Senate race when they combined for 5.3 percent, almost entirely thanks to Libertarian Jon Coon getting 4.2 percent of the vote.

Polls are just a snapshot in time, of course, and some people are saying now that they will vote for one of the third party candidates. But as almost always happens, once Election Day arrives, most voters opt to choose a candidate that has a chance to win and third party support plummets. Of course, with as relentlessly negative as the governor and U.S. Senate races are, perhaps a few more protest votes than usual are possible.

In the end, the third party vote will land somewhere between 1 and 3.5 percent, meaning that while today’s poll questions including them are interesting, they are not instructive.

Supreme Court Candidate A Natural?
Posted: August, 26 2014 12:47 PM

Candidates for public office have taken advantage of a politically good name for years, especially when it comes to judgeships, and why not.

Take Court of Appeals Judge Kirsten Frank Kelly, for example. When she became a Wayne Circuit judge in 1994, Kirsten Kelly would have been an excellent ballot name, but Kirsten Frank Kelly was the stuff of ballot legend for it echoed the name of Michigan’s longtime then-Attorney General and political juggernaut, Frank Kelley, who already had held office for more than 30 years. She had practiced law under her maiden name, Kirsten Frank, but when she ran for judge added her married name, Kelly, for the ballot.

In 2014, the tradition continues. One of the Republican nominees for the Michigan Supreme Court, Kent Circuit Judge James Redford, has for years used his full name on the ballot and in his campaign committee name – James Robert Redford.

Hey, in politics, when you can evoke the name of one of America’s most beloved actors and directors of the past 50 years – Robert Redford of “Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid,” “The Sting,” “All the President’s Men” et al – you do it, right?

So maybe Judge Redford’s campaign strategists will pay for the rights to the majestic theme from “The Natural,” in which Mr. Redford plays a sublime baseball player, as background music to Judge Redford’s ads?

Should Judge Redford win, however, let’s hope he does not react as Robert Redford’s “Bill McKay” character did upon winning a U.S. Senate seat in “The Candidate.”

Snyder, Calley, GOP Avert Disaster
Posted: August, 23 2014 3:39 PM

Had Wes Nakagiri denied Lt. Governor Brian Calley renomination at today’s Michigan Republican Party State Convention and become Governor Rick Snyder’s running mate, the following would have happened.

Democratic gubernatorial candidate Mark Schauer would have moved ahead of Mr. Snyder in the governor’s race. The prospect of a likely Democratic victory at the top of the ticket would have put the House Republican majority into full-scale crisis mode in what would have become a much more difficult fight to keep the majority. And Mr. Calley’s once-promising political career would be in ruins.

Mr. Calley winning renomination and stopping the specter of a Snyder-Nakagiri ticket does not ensure Mr. Snyder will beat Mr. Schauer, far from it. That race by all measures is up for grabs. And it does not ensure House Republicans will keep their majority.

But it does prevent complete chaos in the Michigan Republican Party that would have threatened to make very real the prospect of not just a Democratic win, but a sweeping Democratic win.

As much as Mr. Nakagiri insisted the presence of a tea party conservative on the ticket would galvanize conservatives to vote, the data just does not back that up. Mr. Snyder has long enjoyed near unanimous support in the polls from Republicans. Yes, there are some Republican activists who have never warmed to him and are upset with him on some issues, but nowhere near a critical mass that could put his re-election in jeopardy by sitting out the race.

Had Mr. Nakagiri made the ticket, Democrats would have affixed every single position he has ever taken to Mr. Snyder.

Yes, voters vote for the governor, not the lieutenant governor. But a mess with the running mate can greatly hurt a gubernatorial candidate. Ask former Governor Jim Blanchard whether his handling of taking Lt. Governor Martha Griffiths off the ticket in 1990 helped or hurt his campaign. This situation would have made that one seem small by comparison because it would have served as a constant distraction throughout the fall from what messages Mr. Snyder wants to emphasize.

So at last the “loot guv” battle royale in the Michigan Republican Party is over. Let the real race begin.

Michigan’s Campaign Finance Act, Public Enemy, What?
Posted: August, 15 2014 11:03 AM

I believe it was Public Enemy who once said, “Get up, get, get, get down, the Michigan Campaign Finance Act is a joke in your town.”

Oh wait, those weren’t the lyrics?

No, of course the song “911 Is a Joke” was about the problem of incompetence in emergency 9-1-1 service in urban areas at the time in 1990. Yet while watching candidates intentionally or unintentionally make a mockery of the Michigan Campaign Finance Act in the past month, it was the first thing that came to mind.

Now, to be clear, this isn’t about whether the MCFA allows too much or too little money in politics or requires too much or too little disclosure. Nor is this about the staff at the Michigan Department of State, who can only enforce the law as written. No, what this is about is candidates seeing the complete lack of teeth in the statute and exploiting that fact for tactical advantage without any fear of serious penalties.

Let’s start with Rep. Harvey Santana (D-Detroit). Mr. Santana was facing a fight in the Democratic primary this year because several unions decided to back his challenger, whom Mr. Santana ultimately crushed. But Mr. Santana decided not to file his pre-primary campaign finance statement by the 5 p.m. July 25 deadline and told Gongwer News Service he made that decision so that his opponent could not use the names of his contributors against him. He still has yet to file that report.

Eventually, presumably, Mr. Santana will file it. And the penalty for keeping his contributors and spending activity secret prior to the primary will amount to less than a slap on the wrist, a maximum late fee of $1,000. Instead of a real hit and a deterrent to breaking the law, it’s just part of the cost of doing business. Had Mr. Santana turned in his report the day after the election, the fine would have been well below the $1,000 maximum (the maximum is less for candidates who raise little money).

Rep. John Olumba (I-Detroit) has seemed to think for years that the MCFA is voluntary, and with the weak penalties, it’s hard to blame him. He pushed the deadline past the genuine limit and in 2013 was late for his swearing-in while straightening out his campaign finance records. Not surprisingly, he has yet to file his pre-primary campaign finance report that was due three weeks ago.

Then there’s the case of Liz Fessler Smith of White Lake Township, a Republican who narrowly lost the race for her party’s nomination in the 44th House District that covers parts of west-central Oakland County. Less than 24 hours before her pre-primary campaign finance report was due, she claimed someone stole her records out of a car and a police report was filed. Police have no leads in the case.

Ms. Smith insisted she would submit her report and even said she was still trying to get the report in prior to the election, but she did not file it before the primary and still has not done so although she apparently has remained in touch with the Department of State about filing.

There are more than a few Republicans who think her story is a lie.

For starters, campaign records in any serious campaign, as Ms. Smith’s was, are now kept electronically, and Ms. Smith has refused to say exactly what was stolen – a disk, a flash drive, an entire computer, old-style paperwork, or what. Further arousing suspicion, Ms. Smith said in an interview there were signs someone had forced his or her way into the vehicle, but White Lake police had earlier told me were no signs of forced entry.

Anyhow, just as with Mr. Santana, the price Ms. Smith will pay for failing to file her campaign finance report, whether intentional through a cover story or as a result of some cat burglar roving the mean streets of White Lake and stealing the records, until after the election is almost nothing.

Over to you, Flavor Flav…

Mitchell-Moolenaar Emerging As Marquee Race Of Night
Posted: August, 4 2014 6:30 PM

There are going to be two major storylines coming out of Tuesday’s primary elections in Michigan.

The big one is going to be whether the tea party scores a breakthrough in Michigan Republican electoral politics. I addressed that topic last week, and in the intervening days the evidence has only grown that the tea party looks poised for a good night. Whether it will be a great night, that we will not know until sometime after midnight.

So let’s deal with the second major story, which is going to be the single most noteworthy individual race of the night – gazillionaire Paul Mitchell of Thomas Township against Sen. John Moolenaar of Midland in the 4th U.S. House District Republican primary. The last time I wrote on this race, Mr. Mitchell had staggered Mr. Moolenaar with $1.9 million in spending that funded a lavish television advertising campaign and that figure has risen in the millions since.

The other major congressional primaries appear predictable, but even with the lead in the polls Mr. Mitchell put together, even with Mr. Mitchell’s money advantage, even with the Moolenaar campaign getting caught flat-footed, it still feels like this race could go either way. There’s a third candidate in the race, Peter Konetchy, but he has virtually no chance of winning.

U.S. Rep. Dave Camp (R-Midland) and Attorney General Bill Schuette, the past two people to hold this seat, got heavily engaged (although a bit late) to rally for Mr. Moolenaar. The Right to Life endorsement should still yield benefits for Mr. Moolenaar. And tea party forces are siding with Mr. Moolenaar as well.

Mr. Moolenaar’s allies in Lansing are watching the pummeling he has taken with a good deal of rage. Here is Mr. Mitchell, on his way to winning a congressional seat as a virtual unknown thanks to pumping a few million of his own money into a compressed four-month race thanks to Mr. Camp’s late decision not to run.

Somehow, the Mitchell campaign has successfully managed to turn Mr. Moolenaar, who by almost any measure is about as conservative as it gets, into someone who loves raising taxes and the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act aka Obamacare.

As evidence, Mr. Mitchell’s campaign has blasted Mr. Moolenaar as the sponsor of the Department of Community Health budget for the 2014-15 fiscal year because among the many billions in spending it contains it also includes the funding to pay for Medicaid expansion. Yet 52 of 59 House Republicans and 24 of 26 Senate Republicans voted for that same budget bill.

What was Mr. Moolenaar supposed to do? The program, which he voted against, was lawfully enacted.

So one can understand why Mr. Mitchell might not exactly have a bunch of allies among existing elected Republican officials.

Ah, but that is the way politics works, cherry picking a few items here and there to cast your opponent in a negative light. And I can’t help but wonder why the Moolenaar camp has not gone more forcefully on offense against Mr. Mitchell although at the 11th hour it began hitting him on some aspects of his record. Instead, the responses have been “Mitchell’s lying!” and “Don’t let Mitchell buy a seat in Congress!” Neither seem very effective retorts.

And still, it doesn’t seem possible that 4th District Republicans will repudiate mainstays like Mr. Camp, Mr. Schuette, Right to Life, the tea party and business interests. Of course, Mr. Mitchell has given them 5 million reasons to do so.

Tea Party Showing Signs Of A Breakthrough
Posted: July, 29 2014 1:35 PM

Three months ago, once the filing deadline had passed for candidates to file for state and federal office in Michigan, the prospects of tea party candidates getting bludgeoned – again – by their establishment counterparts in the Republican Party seemed more likely than not.

None of the challengers against Republican incumbents seemed especially strong. And it was unclear just how adept at campaigning many of the newcomers tea party supporters fielded in races without an incumbent running would be.

Now, one week to the primary election, tea party candidates have a legitimate opportunity for a breakthrough in Michigan Republican electoral politics.

For starters, they have several Republican incumbents sweating, perhaps even a couple on the ropes. Lee Chatfield of Levering has come out of nowhere to put Rep. Frank Foster (R-Petoskey) on the brink of defeat as a result of Mr. Foster’s support for Medicaid expansion, the Common Core State Standards and extending the Elliott-Larsen Civil Rights Act to people based on sexual orientation.

Matt Maddock of Milford is giving Sen. Mike Kowall (R-White Lake Township) fits and the Republican concern there is real. The same is true of Deb O’Hagan of West Bloomfield in her challenge to Rep. Klint Kesto (R-Commerce Township) and John O’Reilly of Oakland Township in his challenge to Rep. Bradford Jacobsen (R-Oxford).

For the tea party to rightfully claim success on primary election night, it has to knock out an incumbent. Open seat wins will be significant (more on that in a moment), but as a movement, it would be difficult to claim success if it cannot prove Republican voters are willing to eject a Republican incumbent because of policy views the tea party has insisted are out of step with Republican orthodoxy.

No Republican incumbent in the Michigan Legislature has lost a primary in memory as a result of policy positions. The only losses have come as a result of personal scandal. So any defeat of an incumbent would send shockwaves through the Republican legislative establishment.

Looking at the open House seats, tea party backed candidates are looking good by my count in nine of 15 key races. That’s not to say they have locked those races up over establishment opponents, but if I had to put money on those nine races today, I would bet on the tea party candidates.

There’s another five that are too unclear to predict anything with confidence. There’s one seat where the establishment candidate is the strong favorite.

So what is the bar of success for the tea party? Beyond knocking out at least one incumbent, it at minimum needs to see three of the four major figures in the movement running for the House (Todd Courser of Burlington Township, Wendy Day of Howell, Cindy Gamrat of Plainwell and Gary Glenn of Midland) score victories. That would make it a good night. Lana Theis has objected to being labeled a tea party candidate and indeed her background in Republican politics is broader, but her staunch fiscal conservatism puts her in the same ballpark. She is the favorite in her race and has won establishment backing too.

To make it a great night, then several of the folks like Mark Avery of Rochester Hills, Jeff Jacques of Jonesville, Phil Stinchcomb of Portage, Frank Pfaff Jr. of Comstock Park, Keith Allard of Grand Rapids, Geoff Haveman of Hudsonville and either Beau Vore of Kingsley or Robert Hentschel of Traverse City need to score wins. The best prospects in that group look like Avery, Allard (who would still have the huge task of ousting incumbent Democratic Winnie Brinks of Grand Rapids in the general election) and Haveman.

All of this could still go south for the tea party, of course. Most of these races are close. If movement candidates end up losing most of them, even if the results are close, it will be a major failure after all the intensity and anger supporters have fomented in the past year.

But say they can win seven of these open seats and knock out an incumbent? Yes, that would certainly qualify as momen-tea-um.

An Odd Alliance In A State House Race
Posted: July, 23 2014 12:33 PM

Republican Angela Rigas of Alto is getting some praise from an unexpected source in her tea party-backed bid to topple Rep. Lisa Posthumus Lyons (R-Alto) in the 86th House District that covers parts of Kent and Ionia counties.

The long-shot Democratic candidate in the race, Lynn Mason of Belding, sent out an email to supporters recently touting Ms. Rigas’ efforts. Ms. Mason will face the winner of the Lyons-Rigas Republican primary and is virtually assured of losing because the district is in one of the most Republican parts of the state (Ms. Posthumus has won 70 percent of the vote against the Democratic candidate in her two election wins).

Ms. Rigas has criticized Ms. Lyons for her support of the Common Core State Standards and the Medicaid expansion and reform legislation. In her email, Ms. Mason declared Ms. Rigas is “a conservative mother who stands for middle class Americans” and that “she and her staff are running a strong, energetic campaign.”

The email notes some of the topics Ms. Rigas is targeting Ms. Lyons for criticism on, including the “bailout” of Detroit.

“Lyons is actually spending a lot of her time and money on trying to defeat Angela Rigas,” Ms. Mason writes. “Overall, Angela Rigas is running a very strong campaign against incumbent state Representative Lisa Posthumus Lyons.”

If Ms. Rigas did manage to oust Ms. Lyons, and Ms. Lyons is the heavy favorite in this race, Ms. Mason might regret those words. Then again, considering virtually any reputable person running as a Republican would be favored to beat any Democrat by at least 30 percentage points, that’s probably not a major concern.

Moolenaar On Verge Of Stunning Loss To Newcomer Mitchell
Posted: July, 16 2014 2:55 PM

There were two shocking numbers out of the 4th U.S. House District Republican primary race Tuesday.

23 and 1,354,140.

The 23 is for 23 percentage points, the lead that business executive Paul Mitchell of Thomas Township has in his first bid for elected public office over state Sen. John Moolenaar of Midland, according to a poll commissioned by the Detroit Free Press and WXYZ-TV and conducted by EPIC/MRA.

The 1,354,140 is for $1,354,140, the amount of money by which the wealthy Mr. Mitchell outspent Mr. Moolenaar through June 30, based on campaign finance reports the campaigns filed Tuesday.

Captain Obvious time: These two numbers are related.

When U.S. Rep. Dave Camp (R-Midland) decided not to seek re-election, several legislators considered running, but bowed to what seemed inevitable: an unstoppable bid by Mr. Moolenaar. Personable, a strong fundraiser and the clear heir to the Midland dynasty in the district begun by now-Attorney General Bill Schuette and then Mr. Camp, Mr. Moolenaar was the clear front-runner.

Mr. Mitchell’s bid at first seemed a potential complication, but a longshot considering he was totally unknown while Mr. Moolenaar has served in the Legislature for 10 of the past 12 years. But then Mr. Mitchell made it clear he was not messing around when he hired top Republican political staff.

And then Mr. Mitchell began heavily airing television commercials, first introducing himself and then later blasting Mr. Moolenaar as a faux conservative, the latter charge being a smart political tactic for a Republican primary yet mind-boggling to anyone who has observed Mr. Moolenaar in the Legislature.

Through it all, it seemed while Mr. Mitchell was making it a race, that it was still Mr. Moolenaar’s to lose. Now it seems Mr. Moolenaar waited far too long to confront the Mitchell threat.

It is hard to see Mr. Mitchell’s lead evaporating, but given how unknown he was until a couple months ago, his numbers should be malleable. And Mr. Moolenaar still has two trump cards: Mr. Schuette and Mr. Camp. Both are beloved figures among Republicans in that part of the state, and putting them on television and in direct mail backing Mr. Moolenaar could move the numbers in a hurry.

Otherwise, the Midland Dynasty is history.

The Gray Area Between The Legislature And The Governor’s Office
Posted: July, 10 2014 3:33 PM

When a bill passes the House in an identical form to how it passed the Senate, and vice-versa, the common way reporters, including this one, describe that final vote is to say the House (or the Senate) “sent the bill to Governor Rick Snyder’s desk for his signature.”

Technically, that’s not true. The chamber where the bill originated has its staff (the clerk’s in the House and the secretary’s in the Senate) proofread the bill and then usually some number of days (occasionally hours or even minutes) after the final vote, the originating chamber formally presents the bill to the governor. At the point of presentation, the governor has exactly 14 days to sign or veto the bill.

But 9,999 times out of 10,000, that technicality is just a formality, so we ignore it.

Right now the Legislature is engaged in that 1 in 10,000 moment, on legislation that would prohibit the sale of e-cigarettes to minors. The three bills in the package have passed the House and Senate in identical form with two now sitting in the Senate and one in the House a month after they received “final approval.”

Governor Rick Snyder has all but vowed to veto the bills, preferring more comprehensive legislation that would regulate e-cigarettes as a tobacco product and do more than just ban sales of them to minors. But the bills passed the House and Senate with well more than the two-thirds votes needed to override the governor, thus the reason for the delicate dance.

Under the law and joint rules of the Legislature, there is no requirement that the Legislature actually send to the governor a bill that passes the House and Senate in identical form. A Senate bill, for example, could just sit in the Senate for the rest of the term and never be presented.

Senate Majority Leader Randy Richardville (R-Monroe), who has asked the Senate secretary to hold back the two Senate e-cigarette bills, know this all too well. In June 2010, the House passed his bill, with no changes from how it passed the Senate, to broaden which public employees were eligible for binding arbitration. Governor Jennifer Granholm’s spokesperson said in the Gongwer News Story at the time that the governor expected to sign the bill.

But then the bill sat in the Senate. And sat. And sat. Then in December, the Legislature adjourned for the term, leaving the bill in purgatory, passed by the Legislature, but not presented to the governor and doomed.

I don’t remember anything about that on ABC’s “Schoolhouse Rock.”

Mr. Richardville said today on Michigan Public Television’s “Off the Record” that he wanted to have one more conversation with Mr. Snyder on the e-cigarette bills and at that point, the Senate would “probably” send its bills to the governor’s desk. A veto override is a possibility if enough senators say they want to vote on an override, he said.

Now that is something “Schoolhouse Rock” mentioned. But it would be just the fourth veto override of a Michigan governor in 63 years.

The PPP Polling Fury
Posted: July, 3 2014 12:20 PM

The polling firm Public Policy Polling created a stir this week with a survey showing Republican Governor Rick Snyder and Democratic challenger Mark Schauer tied in the race for governor at 40 percent each.

This created a stir primarily because virtually every other reputable poll for months has shown Mr. Snyder in the lead and because Public Policy Polling, or PPP as the North Carolina-based firm is known, is a Democratic firm.

Republicans immediately trashed the survey. A Snyder spokesperson scoffed that Mr. Schauer’s “Democratic buddies” were trying to do him a solid. GOP types pointed to the survey showing that 35 percent of respondents identified themselves as Democrats compared to 27 percent who said they were Republicans, a change from PPP’s last survey that showed a 35-30 split.

By contrast, the May poll from Lansing-based EPIC/MRA that showed Mr. Snyder up 47 percent to 38 percent had 41 percent identify as Democrats and 37 percent as Republicans.

I’m not a big fan of comparing horse race numbers out of a poll from one firm to a poll from another firm, but for the sake of argument, could something have changed in the past month? It is certainly possible that the latest wave of Democratic Governors Association advertising on behalf of Mr. Schauer moved the numbers, especially since Mr. Snyder and the Republican Governors Association have not been on the air.

Still, that would be a huge amount of movement, and if it was happening, the assumption is Republicans would see it in its polling too, and that the RGA would have responded with a wave of its own ads.

National polling also suggests that Republican enthusiasm about voting this year is high and Democratic enthusiasm is muted to the point where Republicans could run away with the election unless something changes. Could Michigan be running counter to the national trend? It seems unlikely, but the entire modus operandi of the Michigan Democratic Party for the past 18 months has been to stoke outrage among the party base to Mr. Snyder and the Republican-controlled Legislature, so it is possible.

It also is possible though that the two campaigns are employing totally different polling models producing very different universes of voters. That underscores something often not discussed in news stories about polls. The results often are much less about so-called independent voters gravitating toward one candidate than the ability of the pollster to produce a sample that accurately replicates the expected partisan makeup of the electorate.

Putting that aside for the moment, what about the PPP bias question? The analysis of polling in 2012 in Michigan from Gongwer News Service and others showed that PPP came the closest to nailing the final margin in the presidential race in this state. And it was similarly accurate across the country.

And in 2010, if PPP was biased, the Democratic gubernatorial candidate at the time, Virg Bernero, sure would have liked some home cooking because PPP consistently showed Mr. Snyder crushing him by 20 points throughout the fall.

That said, there is real debate about PPP. No less an authority than East Lansing native Nate Silver, the statistician who successfully forecast the presidential election results in all 50 states in 2012, has trashed PPP for faulty methods. He and PPP even got into a huge Twitter fight last year.

When one poll is an outlier, as this one is, the natural inclination, and it usually is the right one, is to dismiss it as such. There was one firm in 2012 that kept showing Mitt Romney narrowly ahead of President Barack Obama in Michigan. That one firm got it horrifically wrong.

PPP has a history of getting it right, but like the stock market, past performance in polling is not always a predictor of future results. It’s a long time until November, as they say, and there probably will be no fewer than 100 more polls between now and then. The day after the election, as usual, is judgment day for the pollster community.

The 2014 Michigan Elections App From Gongwer
Posted: June, 18 2014 1:54 PM

Gongwer News Service, Michigan’s premier source for information on state government and politics, has unveiled a smartphone and tablet app that provides easy-to-use information and analysis of this year’s elections.

The 2014 Michigan Elections app offers a wealth of information and analysis to keep you up to speed on this year’s state and federal elections.

But don’t just take our word for it. Those who have downloaded it are offering rave reviews. “Slick,” “Sweet,” “Cool” and “Impressive” are among the plaudits.

The app, which is available for devices using iOS and Android, offers exclusive Gongwer analysis of all 148 seats in the Michigan Legislature, the state’s 14 U.S. House seats, the governor’s race, U.S. Senate race and all other statewide contests.

The app gives users on-the-go access to detailed candidate biographical information, with options to review primary races and then general election campaigns once those races take shape.

Users can also see which U.S. House, Michigan Senate and Michigan House races are expected to be the most competitive and the seats where one party has a slight or strong edge.

On each candidate’s page, users will see links to the candidate’s social media accounts, campaign websites and ways to contact the candidate, as well as a constantly updating list of organizations that have endorsed the candidate. If that candidate has run for state or federal office from 2002 onward, the app also displays his or her performance in those elections.

Users also can use the “Key Races” function to focus only on the primaries and general election match-ups that are legitimately competitive.

Want to see for yourself how it works? Check out our video tutorial:

The app offers users portability and fresh information and analysis not available from any other source.

As the campaign season progresses, and as dynamics change, Gongwer will update its analysis of the races.

And on election nights, Gongwer will update the app regularly with the latest election returns as they are reported.

Users of the iPhone and iPad can download the iOS version from the App Store.

Users of Android devices can download the app from Google Play.

The app is available for just $9.99.

Quality. Speed. Portability. The vital information you need on the 2014 elections in Michigan.

Download the Gongwer 2014 Michigan Elections App today.

Ellis, Hobbs In Similar Positions Leading Up To Primaries
Posted: June, 17 2014 11:21 AM

Republican Brian Ellis of East Grand Rapids and Democratic state Rep. Rudy Hobbs of Southfield share little in common as they pursue bids for the U.S. House this year on opposite sides of the state – except for one major trait.

Both men hope to convert widespread endorsements from key organizations into votes that will catapult them ahead of their better-known opponents.

It is endorsement season with seven weeks to go until the August 5 primary. And both Mr. Ellis and Mr. Hobbs have to be pleased.

Let’s start with Mr. Ellis in the 3rd District. He is seeking to topple U.S. Rep. Justin Amash (R-Cascade Township) and emerged as the candidate favored by establishment and business-oriented Republicans upset with Mr. Amash’s liberty/tea party approach. He has swept the key endorsing local endorsing organizations, winning the backing of Right to Life of Michigan, the Grand Rapids Area Chamber of Commerce, the Michigan Chamber of Commerce and the Michigan Farm Bureau’s AgriPAC.

And yet Mr. Amash is in a very strong position. A new poll out today from EPIC/MRA, commissioned by the Detroit Free Press and several television stations, shows Mr. Amash with a whopping 55 percent to 35 percent advantage. The Club for Growth is backing Mr. Amash again and already has roughed up Mr. Ellis in television commercials.

Now the question is how hard will all the groups endorsing Mr. Ellis fight to elect him. For the Right to Life and Farm Bureau endorsements to matter, both will have to aggressively mail the district. Will the two chambers of commerce fund third party television advertisements? That could move the numbers in a hurry.

Mr. Ellis has a sizeable war chest of his own to spend as well.

Still, Mr. Ellis not only has to make up 20 points in the polls, he has to persuade many Amash voters to abandon the incumbent. That is going to be difficult.

In the 14th District, Mr. Hobbs faces something of a similar dynamic. There is no incumbent running, but Mr. Hobbs’ two principal opponents are de facto incumbents. Former U.S. Rep. Hansen Clarke of Detroit and Southfield Mayor Brenda Lawrence both ran for the same seat in 2012 and lost to U.S. Rep. Gary Peters of Bloomfield Township in the Democratic primary.

Mr. Hobbs is not nearly as well known, but like Mr. Ellis, he has swept nearly all the key endorsements a Democratic candidate could want – the United Auto Workers, the district’s Democratic Party, the National Education Association and the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees Council 25, among others.

The general sense in this race is that Mr. Hobbs is playing catch-up in name recognition. And unlike Mr. Ellis, Mr. Hobbs has not had the kind of fundraising success that would allow him to air television advertisements.

So Mr. Hobbs will be relying heavily on these major Democratic groups to get the word out to their members, go door-to-door on his behalf, pay for mailings and overwhelm the Clarke and Lawrence camps with superior organization.

There are times when candidates boast a long list of endorsements, but the only real impact is that it looks pretty on a mailer because those organizations are doing little to make the endorsement meaningful.

As Mr. Ellis and Mr. Hobbs wage very different campaigns 140 miles apart, that is one thing neither can afford.

Just When Does The Governor’s Term End, Anyway?
Posted: June, 5 2014 11:26 AM

While awaiting legislators and Governor Rick Snyder to finalize the upcoming fiscal year’s budget, there is often a whole lot of waiting in the Capitol for word that a deal is complete.

With time to spare, a stroll past the portraits of Michigan’s former governor’s yielded an observation. There was a lack of uniformity on when a governor’s term ends.

Huh?

Officially, according to the Michigan Constitution, the governor’s term ends at noon January 1 following the most recent election for the office. So Governor Jennifer Granholm’s term ended January 1, 2011, for example.

As reporters, this poses a bit of a conundrum. Do we say that Ms. Granholm served from 2003-11 to go for maximum accuracy, or in a nod to her only serving a measly 12 hours in 2011 just say 2003-10? Usually you see 2003-10 in news stories.

And 2003-10 is what the portrait of Ms. Granholm indicates is her term. But Governor John Engler’s portrait goes with 1991-2003, the more technically accurate dates. Governor Jim Blanchard went the same route, 1983-1991.

But Governor William Milliken went with 1969-82, in a nod to the years that reflect all but 12 hours of his actual time in office.

In the end, that 12 hours may seem small, but it is relevant. Many gubernatorial appointments to state boards and commissions expire January 1, and that enables a governor who is leaving office that same day to make those appointments months in advance and have them take effect before the new governor can fill those slots. Mr. Engler did so.

Ms. Granholm wanted to do so as well, but unlike Mr. Engler, the Senate was controlled by the opposite party, and it used its power of advice and consent to put up roadblocks to many of those appointments.

So whenever Governor Rick Snyder’s portrait goes up, the dates of the term of his office will be one of the decisions he has to make.

After Rough Day On Island, Land Faces A Key Juncture In Senate Bid
Posted: May, 29 2014 2:33 PM

Republican U.S. senatorial candidate Terri Land has had a brutal last 24 hours.

Wednesday, Ms. Land unwillingly faced her first scrum with the state’s political reporters after making remarks at the Detroit Regional Chamber’s Mackinac Policy Conference and, by all accounts, it went very poorly for her, first trying to avoid it, then awkwardly dodging questions and seeming physically uncomfortable with her surroundings before her staff quickly ended the encounter.

Minutes earlier, Ms. Land and her Democratic opponent, U.S. Rep. Gary Peters, had appeared separately in front of the Chamber’s political action committee to discuss their bids and take questions. Mr. Peters played up Ms. Land’s opposition to the federal bailout of General Motors and Chrysler in his remarks, and Ms. Land seemed to have no idea how to counter other than to say she supports the auto industry.

This came after Ms. Land initially answered a question from the audience on her position on net neutrality and she responded by saying she thought the Internet should be free.

Since then, the coverage has been downright scathing.

“Wasn’t pretty,” wrote the Detroit Free Press.

The Detroit News, Mlive and Gongwer all described her as dodging questions from reporters on the auto bailout.

“Not ready for prime time,” wrote columnist Jack Lessenberry.

“Stiff and reading off prepared remarks,” said WDIV-TV.

Ms. Land’s troubles come at a critical time. Mr. Peters had retaken the lead from her in most polls, and while Michigan is a top-tier race nationally for now, there also is no question Republicans have plenty of opportunities in more Republican-leaning states to capture control of the U.S. Senate even if Ms. Land loses. She can ill-afford more miscues like happened Wednesday and not run the risk of national Republicans shifting their eyes elsewhere.

Look no further than what happened to Pete Hoekstra in 2012 after he committed some key mistakes in the late winter/early spring, crushing any national interest in his bid.

What happened Wednesday was predictable.

When Ms. Land launched her U.S. Senate bid, one concern among several Republicans was that she struggled to project confidence and a good handle on policy in her short-lived 2010 gubernatorial bid.

Ms. Land took no apparent steps to address this concern since starting her campaign in July of last year, despite having plenty of time and opportunity to do so.

She could have done a series of town halls a la Governor Rick Snyder, who as a first-time candidate in 2009 used them to become very strong on the stump. After his 2010 victory, his camp acknowledged he was awful at first, but all that practice strengthened him to the point where he was in great shape by the time the campaign got serious in the spring of 2010.

Ms. Land could have toured the state’s newspaper editorial boards or done a series of stops around the state, announced in advance to the news media, to get more comfortable with the type of grilling from reporters she could expect later in the campaign.

These kinds of moves in 2013 would have been relatively low-risk because interest in the campaign more than a year from the election was low.

Instead, Ms. Land seldom put herself in challenging settings, sticking to Republican Party functions where she could deliver a speech and interact one-on-one with natural allies. She also visited events like the Women’s Expo in Lansing and the North American International Auto Show in Detroit, but again kept a low profile.

She did a teleconference with reporters earlier this year on the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, but it was tightly managed and allowed her to stick to her talking points without facing much heat.

Ms. Land also has refused most requests for interviews since late last year from the reporters regularly covering the campaign.

So was it much of a surprise that Ms. Land struggled in the first round of intense in-person questioning from multiple reporters she has faced in the campaign? No.

Thursday, there was one sign that Ms. Land may now recognize that she has to increase her public profile and subject herself to questions about her candidacy or risk having the talk of her not being able to take the heat undercut her bid. She committed to appear on Michigan Public Radio Network affiliates for a statewide call-in question and answer program, Rick Pluta of MPRN announced.

Doing that show, and a few more scrums, should leave Ms. Land better prepared for the fall, when the intensity of the race peaks and, presumably, she and Mr. Peters debate. It is hard to imagine Ms. Land surviving a repeat performance of Wednesday on live statewide television a month before the election.

Trott Could Have Shot At Historic Rout
Posted: May, 20 2014 12:00 PM

U.S. Rep. Kerry Bentivolio (R-Milford) seems on his way to one of the most lopsided losses a Michigan member of the U.S. House has suffered in a party primary to a non-incumbent.

Mr. Bentivolio’s campaign manager departed. He has no campaign spokesperson, nor much in the way of discernible staff. He has raised little money and what he has raised is the subject of a court fight with a former campaign operative who says Mr. Bentivolio owes him much of it.

And of course, Mr. Bentivolio is the incumbent in the 11th U.S. House District through a fluke. He was not considered a serious threat when he filed in 2012 to challenge U.S. Rep. Thaddeus McCotter (R-Livonia) in the Republican primary, but Mr. McCotter’s campaign staff committed fraud with his petition signatures, knocking Mr. McCotter off the ballot and moving Mr. Bentivolio from gadfly challenger to congressman.

Mortgage foreclosure attorney David Trott, a longtime Republican financier, is challenging Mr. Bentivolio in the Republican primary this year, and he has virtually the entire GOP establishment on his side as well as virtually limitless resources to fund a strong campaign organization.

So with the news that Mr. Bentivolio’s campaign is in tatters, it seemed worth a look at past Michigan U.S. House members who lost renomination in their party primary and what the margin was. Right now, it feels like Mr. Trott could win this race by at least 20 percentage points.

Going back to 1948, I found at least eight instances of incumbent Michigan members of Congress losing in a primary, and I am only counting losses to a non-incumbent, not those when redistricting forced two incumbents to fight each other in a primary.

The most recent example was 2010 when then-state Sen. Hansen Clarke toppled U.S. Rep. Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick, undone as a result of the corruption of her son, former Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick. The defeat in the Democratic primary was not too lopsided though, with Mr. Clarke taking 47.3 percent to 40.9 percent for Ms. Kilpatrick.

In 2006, Tim Walberg toppled then-U.S. Rep. Joe Schwarz in a close race for the GOP nomination, 53.1 percent to 46.9 percent.

One of the bigger blowouts occurred in 1996 when Ms. Kilpatrick ousted then-U.S. Rep. Barbara-Rose Collins, mired in scandal, by a 51.6 percent to 30.7 percent score in the Democratic primary.

Perhaps the biggest shocker occurred in 1992 when Pete Hoekstra stunned then-U.S. Rep. Guy Vander Jagt in the Republican primary, 46.1 percent to 40.3 percent, after voters rebelled at Mr. Vander Jagt's lack of presence in the district while he ran the National Republican Congressional Committee.

In 1986, Fred Upton took out then-U.S. Rep. Mark Siljander in the Republican primary, 54.6 percent to 45.4 percent.

Primary defeats until then were relatively rare as far as I can tell. One occurred in 1956 when Robert Griffin ousted then-U.S. Rep. Ruth Thompson in the Republican primary by a wide margin, 52.3 percent to 36 percent.

But the biggest blowout I could find (and this is not necessarily an exhaustive list) was one of historic importance. In 1948, Gerald Ford routed the isolationist incumbent, Bartel Jonkman, in the Republican primary and served almost 26 years before ascending to the vice presidency and then the presidency. Mr. Ford prevailed with a whopping 62.2 percent of the vote to just 37.8 percent for Mr. Jonkman.

So there are a couple numbers to watch on the night of August 5, barring a miracle turnaround from Mr. Bentivolio. Can Mr. Trott beat Mr. Bentivolio by 24.4 percentage points, Mr. Ford’s margin of victory, which appears the best in modern times over an incumbent in a primary? And the other number is 30.7 percent, Ms. Collins’ vote percentage, the low water mark for an incumbent during that same time.

All Mr. Trott surely wants is the old 50 percent plus 1 to win, and he still has to defeat the Democratic nominee in November, which is no sure thing, but we political junkies will be keeping an eye on some other numbers as well.

Yob Memo On Sasse Victory Lessons Conflicts With Land’s Approach
Posted: May, 16 2014 3:02 PM

Republican political consultant John Yob co-authored an interesting memo this week about the lessons Republicans should take from the victory of his client, Ben Sasse, in the Nebraska GOP U.S. Senate primary earlier this week.

What I found interesting was that some of the key tactics Mr. Yob said Mr. Sasse employed that proved critical to his victory are methods that another client of Mr. Yob’s, Michigan Republican U.S. senatorial candidate Terri Land, has so far avoided.

In listing the key strategic moments and decisions of Mr. Sasse’s campaign, the memo mentions a 2013 listening tour he conducted.

“That was where we figured out just how serious Nebraskans were, and that it was possible to run a campaign focused on constitutional governance and detailed policy proposals,” the memo says.

Another key decision the memo mentions was Mr. Sasse holding several town halls on Obamacare, formally known as the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act.

“Rather than run a typical campaign based on only going to diners or parades, or trying to curry favor with local party leaders, we decided instead to build our own crowds and go straight to voters,” the memo says. “That's exactly what we did, and it was key for us. With our 9.5-foot tall stack of Obamacare regulations in the belly of our campaign RV, Ben crisscrossed Nebraska holding town hall meetings standing next to the stack of regulations. There he explained the bill with specifics, laid out his plan for what comes next, and talked about the Constitution.”

Ms. Land has traveled around the state, using her truck, not an RV, but she almost never announces her plans to the public or news media beforehand and most of the events she mentions via her social media accounts are the type of local party functions the Sasse memo disdains.

As far as I know, Ms. Land has not held a single town hall-type meeting of the kind the memo says Mr. Sasse made a key aspect of his campaign. She has met with some business executives to tour their companies, and just this afternoon she announced she would hold a “jobs tour” this summer with the first one today in Niles where she met with the owner of a factory.

Town halls worked brilliantly for another Yob client, now-Governor Rick Snyder, in his 2010 campaign. Mr. Snyder said they made him a better candidate, and his Republican primary foes agreed with that assessment.

Now there are some obvious differences between Mr. Sasse and Ms. Land in their political resumes. Mr. Sasse was a newcomer to politics and totally unknown while Ms. Land starts out with a good base of support, thanks to people remembering her run as secretary of state.

The key for Mr. Sasse was to win the Republican primary because Nebraska is such a Republican-leaning state while Ms. Land has to focus on the general election.

And Ms. Land has emulated some of the strategies the Sasse memo mentions – establishing viability early through strong-fundraising and being able to inspire tea party voters yet also campaign in a way that get through to other voters and establishment figures. Mr. Yob is a big proponent of Republicans needing to improve campaign technology, and Ms. Land’s campaign just announced a new effort on that front, similar to what Mr. Sasse did.

Still, Ms. Land has departed in the first 10-plus months of her campaign from what her consultant, Mr. Yob, says was a key aspect of Mr. Sasse’s win.

Perhaps in the end this will be such a strong Republican year and combined with Ms. Land’s strong fundraising effort, name recognition and the “R” next to her name on the ballot, that will be all she needs to win this race.

That could lead to another memo.

In Politics, 45 Is The New 50
Posted: May, 9 2014 3:22 PM

There was an outstanding piece of research in The Washington Post today breaking the myth that undecided voters still break for the challenger to the detriment of incumbents.

You can read the piece for yourself, but it turns to dust the old idea that if an incumbent has 46 percent to 44 percent for the challenger in the polls just before Election Day, that the challenger can expect to win the bulk of that 10 percent undecided vote and win the race.

The Post, looking at competitive U.S. Senate races in the past four election cycles, found that the undecided vote actually breaks for the incumbent.

This makes perfect sense.

Think about it. How many times in recent statewide Michigan elections have we heard from challengers about how the incumbent is below 50 percent in the polls, so he or she must be vulnerable yet the incumbents go on to win with relative ease?

In September 2012, a survey showed U.S. Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Lansing) at 46 percent and her Republican opponent, Pete Hoekstra, at 40 percent. The talk among Republicans was that since Ms. Stabenow was below 50 percent, she was at risk.

Well, what happened? Ms. Stabenow won 58 percent to 39 percent, meaning she took virtually every “undecided” vote. I put undecided in quotes because what tends to happen is many of those voters don’t show up or already were leaning one way, but squishy about it.

Or how about in 2006, when a poll just before the election showed Democratic then-Governor Jennifer Granholm at 49 percent to 42 percent for Republican challenger Dick DeVos? The old saw about undecideds breaking for the challenger should have meant Mr. DeVos had a fighting chance, right?

Wrong. Ms. Granholm beat Mr. DeVos, 56 percent to 42 percent, again taking all of that “undecided” vote.

The point here is that 45 is the new 50, meaning based on elections in the past 15 years, the danger zone for an incumbent seems to be more in falling below the 45 percent level in polls than the old standard of 50 percent.

Case in point: the 2000 U.S. Senate race between Ms. Stabenow, then a U.S. representative, and then-U.S. Sen. Spencer Abraham, a Republican. About 10 days out from the election, a poll had both candidates at 41 percent. Ms. Stabenow would go on to win a squeaker, 49 percent to 48 percent.

As the Post points out, the universe of voters is so much more partisan now than it was 30 years ago, those “undecided” voters aren’t what they used to be.

A Wrench In McMillin’s Message
Posted: May, 1 2014 3:42 PM

Rep. Tom McMillin wants to frame the 8th U.S. House District Republican primary as a contest between a squishy conservative (his opponent, former Sen. Mike Bishop) and a true conservative (himself).

But the Bishop campaign is moving quickly to crush that message, and it did so in the most effective way possible by using Mr. McMillin’s own words against him.

Stu Sandler, the Bishop campaign’s general consultant, posted a video on Facebook this week of Mr. McMillin praising Mr. Bishop in 2010 as a – wait for it – strong conservative leader.

Those weren’t exactly Mr. McMillin’s words, but the message was unmistakable.

At the time, Mr. McMillin was backing Mr. Bishop for the Republican nomination for attorney general over Bill Schuette, who narrowly fended off Mr. Bishop for the GOP nod. Democrats controlled the House, Democrat Jennifer Granholm was governor and Mr. Bishop was the Senate majority leader for the one Republican outpost in state government, the Senate.

“Time and time again, bills for trial lawyers, legislation often attacking job providers in Michigan, Senate Majority Leader Mike Bishop through his leadership has shown the ability to hold his caucus together to stop all of those damaging bills,” Mr. McMillin said in a speech to the Michigan Republican Party convention in 2010.

Mr. McMillin has some fodder to use against Mr. Bishop in this race to play up the true conservative theme.

It will be the same playbook Mr. Schuette used four years ago: Mr. Bishop as majority leader allowed votes on increasing the income tax and establishing a swiftly repealed sales tax on services and backed the Michigan Business Tax, which quickly became loathed and has since been replaced.

But if Mr. McMillin was so effusive with praise then – and the Bishop camp has the video to prove it – it will undermine his ability to press the squishy conservative case now.

Walberg Draws An Interesting Challenger
Posted: April, 23 2014 6:02 PM

Elections bring out a slice of life, and that is certainly true in the 7th U.S. House District where Douglas Radcliffe North of Jackson has created one of the more unique campaign websites I have seen in his challenge to U.S. Rep. Tim Walberg (R-Tipton) for the Republican nomination.

You like campaign videos? Mr. North has got ’em.

He has videos titled “Gangsters” and “Walberg’s Soul” for starters.

Unfortunately, I can’t embed the videos here, but if you go to www.northforcongress.com, you are in for something unique.

The first video alone is memorable for Mr. North’s Panama hat/turtle neck/trench coat ensemble.

So Mr. Walberg is in for at least a nuisance primary as Mr. North appears nothing if not willing to take a few shots.

Ah, The Surprises Of Candidate Filing Day
Posted: April, 22 2014 10:47 AM

4 p.m. today is the deadline for partisan candidates seeking nomination in August and election in November to file to run for office, and it is always a banner day on the political calendar, especially because there is usually a surprise of some sort.

Sometimes, the surprise is startling, but ultimately not that big a deal. In 2002, a knife-making business owner named Jim Moody unexpectedly emerged from nowhere and filed what he said were 17,000 signatures to run for governor as a Republican. His short-lived long-shot bid ended weeks later when the Department of State determined he failed to gather the minimum 15,000 valid signatures.

One of my favorite filing day gambits occurred in 2004. That year, former Rep. Lamar Lemmons III sought a House seat in Detroit. In a neighboring district, so did his father, Lamar Lemmons Jr. And in another neighboring district, so did his son, Lamar K. Lemmons. The two elder Lemmons both won, but the youngest lost in the Democratic primary.

Then there are the name game tricks. In 2010, someone named Zack Brandenburg filed to run as a Republican in a Macomb County Senate race where Jack Brandenburg already was running. Zack Brandenburg shockingly (sarcasm alert) went into hiding and could not be found to determine who put him up to the trick before finally withdrawing after the controversy built.

Had he remained on the ballot, possibly it would have helped Jack Brandenburg, who could have been given a ballot designation. Or possibly it would have hurt him if voters were confused and cast some votes for the interloper.

Sadly, Zack Brandenburg never returned my messages to find out why he filed. Thanks to the wonders of Facebook, I can tell you he remains in the music business as a guitarist for a band called Short on Shame.

But the biggest surprise of all I have seen by far was the 2012 bombshell in which then-Democratic Rep. Roy Schmidt, who had filed many weeks before the filing deadline for re-election, at the last minute filed as a Republican and withdrew his Democratic candidacy.

For the purposes of this blog, I won’t rehash in detail the aftermath that followed other than to recall how a family friend of Mr. Schmidt’s named Matt Mojzak filed as a Democrat about the same time in a bid to thwart Democrats from unseating Mr. Schmidt later that year, a gambit that turned into one of the biggest blunders in modern Michigan politics.

T-minus five hours and change to go. Grab yourself a bucket of popcorn, keep an eye on the filings and enjoy the fun.

Race To Succeed Camp Just Got Interesting
Posted: April, 21 2014 3:28 PM

Sen. John Moolenaar has been seen as the prohibitive favorite to succeed retiring U.S. Rep. Dave Camp, a fellow Midland Republican, in the 4th U.S. House District since Mr. Camp announced he would not seek a 13th term.

Republican business executive Paul Mitchell previously had announced his bid, but it was unclear just how serious a threat he could be. Monday, he made clear he is very serious when he announced a campaign staff of some of the biggest names in Michigan Republican circles, landing Jeff Timmer, formerly of the Sterling Corporation, as campaign manager and Stu Sandler, president and CEO of the Decider Strategies consulting firm, as general consultant.

The Mitchell campaign announced several other notable hires to fill out its campaign staff.

The third candidate in the race for the Republican nomination, Peter Konetchy, will be running a much lower-budget race than his two opponents.

Mr. Moolenaar will surely have a strong campaign team as well and already has worked with Marketing Resource Group, but everyone expected Mr. Moolenaar would have a good operation. The surprise here is that Mr. Mitchell seems intent on doing what he can to make this a race.

In Search Of A Rarity – Print Journalist To Legislator
Posted: April, 16 2014 11:11 AM

One of the newest candidates filing to run for the Legislature is a name familiar to those of us in the journalism world.

Rich Perlberg, the now retired longtime general manager/executive editor of the Livingston County Daily Press and Argus, is running as a Republican in the 42nd House District, which covers the Brighton area.

Mr. Perlberg joins a crowded GOP field in the solidly Republican district where the successor to Rep. Bill Rogers (R-Brighton), who cannot seek re-election because of term limits, will be effectively determined by the August 5 primary for the Republican nomination.

Of the other four candidates in the field so far, Mr. Perlberg’s major opposition comes from Brighton Township Treasurer Lana Theis, a Republican activist, and Nick Fiani, the president of the Brighton school board (editor's note: this story changed to describe Ms. Theis as a Republican activist). Ms. Theis has been running for a year, and Mr. Fiani got started in July, so they have a big head start on Mr. Perlberg.

And the history of print journalists running for the Legislature is mixed at best. The one major victory in memory was Gary Woronchak, who had spent 25 years in newspapers and was the managing editor of The Daily Tribune in Royal Oak prior to winning a House seat in Dearborn as a Republican in 1998 (he later won a seat on the Wayne County Commission and became a Democrat).

One of those who lost Mr. Perlberg knows well. Buddy Moorehouse, a former editor and columnist for the Daily Press and Argus, finished a close third in the 2002 Republican primary for the other House seat in Livingston County (memorably won by now-Sen. Joe Hune in a recount).

Former Detroit News reporter/local publisher Hawke Fracassa struggled in his bid for office, losing a 2008 run for the Republican nomination in the 25th House District in Macomb County by a 2-to-1 margin. In 2010, he filed to run for the same seat as a Democrat, but withdrew from the race. Now he is back – as a Republican – and waging a long-shot challenge to Sen. Steve Bieda (D-Warren) in the 9th Senate District.

In 2008, former Detroit News columnist (and Michigan Journalism Hall of Fame inductee) Pete Waldmeir ran as a Republican for the 1st House District that covered the Grosse Pointes and a small part of Detroit. Mr. Waldmeir had won a seat on the Grosse Pointe Woods City Council since leaving the News, but he still lost a bid for the GOP nomination, finishing a relatively distant third among six candidates.

Mr. Perlberg wrote a regular Sunday column for his newspaper for many years, so that gives him some visibility, and he will have some connections in the business community from his executive post at the newspaper.

But the recent history of print journalists running for the Legislature is not good. Mr. Woronchak’s victories in 1998, 2000 and 2002 were no accident, incidentally. Mr. Woronchak is one of the best retail campaigners I’ve seen.

Ripple Effects Of Retirement Fever Run Deep
Posted: April, 4 2014 2:43 PM

The ramifications of all the unexpected retirements in the past few months from Michigan’s members of Congress and state Senate are immense.

Yes, it is about triggering competitive elections down the ticket. But it gets down into the very functioning of the Michigan Legislature as well.

The obvious ramification of U.S. Rep. Dave Camp’s (R-Midland) decision not to seek re-election is that state Sen. John Moolenaar (R-Midland) is now running to replace him, creating an unanticipated open seat in Mr. Moolenaar’s 36th Senate District. That race will likely feature a Republican primary showdown between House Majority Floor Leader Jim Stamas (R-Midland) and Rep. Peter Pettalia (R-Presque Isle)

As a consequence, Mr. Pettalia’s very competitive 106th House District seat will open up and give Democrats an unexpected opportunity to pick up a seat Mr. Pettalia most likely would have held.

But what is less obvious is the major implications this has for the Michigan Senate from 2015-18.

Mr. Moolenaar is the vice chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee and was the favorite to become the new chair for the next four years. Now that job is up for grabs.

And will that fact be part of the calculation Sen. Darwin Booher (R-Evart) makes as he considers whether to run for Mr. Camp’s seat? Right now, only five of the 11 Republican members of the Senate Appropriations Committee are seeking re-election, and Mr. Booher is one of them, so he might have a shot at the chair.

And what about Sen. Judy Emmons in the 4th U.S. House District? A congressional bid by Ms. Emmons would have ramifications too. Rep. Kevin Cotter (R-Mount Pleasant) is running for speaker in the next term, but he would then have to decide whether to pursue Ms. Emmons' open 33rd Senate District instead. (editor's note: this post corrected to note the correct Senate district Mr. Cotter could seek).

Just for kicks, what if U.S. Rep. Fred Upton (R-St. Joseph) retires from the 6th U.S. House District? That would likely lead to Sen. John Proos (R-St. Joseph) running for Mr. Upton’s seat and then open up Mr. Proos’ 21st Senate District. A likely candidate for that seat would be Rep. Al Pscholka (R-Stevensville), who also is running for speaker.

Depending on what happens, the race for speaker (assuming Republicans hold their majority) could be turned upside-down in the next two weeks.

There are implications for the race for Senate majority leader, too. Republicans are a near-lock to maintain their current 26-12 majority in the 2014 elections, and while Senate Majority Floor Leader Arlan Meekhof (R-West Olive) continues to avoid saying publicly that he is running for majority leader, it is widely known in political circles he is seeking the job.

Mr. Meekhof and anyone who challenges him will have to assess how the loss of people like Mr. Moolenaar, Sen. Bruce Caswell (R-Hillsdale) and Sen. Howard Walker (R-Traverse City) changes the leadership race landscape.

If Sen. Joe Hune (R-Hamburg) forgoes re-election to run for the 8th U.S. House District in the wake of U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Brighton) departing, that also would have significant ripple effects. It would open up the coveted chair positions for the Senate Insurance and Agriculture committees that Mr. Hune now holds. And it would further scramble the leadership race picture.

All this uncertainty surely will lead to a huge sense of relief after the 4 p.m. April 22 deadline to file for office passes.

Quantifying Michigan’s Congressional Turnover
Posted: April, 1 2014 1:54 PM

Michigan’s U.S. House delegation, once laden with seniority and power, will be a shell of what it was when the 114th Congress opens next year in the wake of the retirement fever this year, as well as previous retirements and election results.

The past four years have seen remarkable turnover.

Prior to the 2010 elections, Michigan’s delegation was loaded on both sides of the aisle. The average length of tenure among the state’s 15 members was 20.2 years. But 2010 saw three major departures with the retirements of U.S. Rep. Vern Ehlers (R-Grand Rapids) and U.S. Rep. Bart Stupak (D-Menominee), as well as U.S. Rep. Peter Hoekstra’s (R-Holland) decision to run for governor instead of re-election. All had risen to positions of influence.

Elections KO’d others. U.S. Rep. Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick (D-Detroit) fell in the Democratic primary, largely because of the scandal that consumed her son, former Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick. Tim Walberg ousted U.S. Rep. Mark Schauer (D-Battle Creek) two years after Mr. Schauer had ousted him.

The five new members were U.S. Rep. Justin Amash (R-Kentwood), U.S. Rep. Dan Benishek (R-Crystal Falls), U.S. Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Holland), U.S. Rep. Hansen Clarke (D-Detroit) and Mr. Walberg.

The pattern continued in 2012. U.S. Rep. Dale Kildee (D-Flint) retired after a 36-year run and was succeeded by his nephew, now-U.S. Rep. Dan Kildee (D-Flint). U.S. Rep. Thaddeus McCotter saw his tenure end involuntarily after his staff falsified petition signature forms, leading to his disqualification from the ballot. Mr. Clarke lost to U.S. Rep. Gary Peters (D-Bloomfield Township) after Republicans put the two of them together in redistricting.

But what has happened in 2014 is staggering. U.S. Rep. John Dingell (D-Dearborn) is hanging it up after an all-time record 59 years that saw much of that tenure as one of the most powerful members of Congress. U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Brighton), chair of the House Intelligence Committee, unexpectedly announced he would not run. And Monday, U.S. Rep. Dave Camp (R-Midland), chair of the Ways and Means Committee, said he is hanging it up as well.

Under House Republican Conference rules, Mr. Camp was ineligible to continue as Ways and Means chair in the next term. Mr. Rogers could have continued in his post.

Presuming there are no additional retirements before the April 22 deadline to file, and everyone wins re-election (and those might be faulty presumptions), the average tenure for those serving as of January will be 10.3 years with nine members having four years or less experience. The tenures of U.S. Rep. John Conyers (D-Detroit) at 50 years, U.S. Rep. Sander Levin (D-Royal Oak) at 32 years and U.S. Rep. Fred Upton (R-St. Joseph) at 28 years greatly bump up the average.

Stabenow Tries To Turn Gloomy Projection On Senate Control Into Positive
Posted: March, 27 2014 4:03 PM

Nate Silver, the East Lansing native whose political forecasts are closely watched, offered his assessment last week on the likelihood that the U.S. Senate would flip from Republican to Democratic control in the 2014 elections.

He installed the Republicans as slight favorites, and Democrats – who delighted in Mr. Silver’s forecasts in 2012 – suddenly became concerned at the assessment.

One of those was Mr. Silver’s fellow native of the 517, U.S. Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Lansing). While some Democrats openly questioned Mr. Silver’s numbers, Ms. Stabenow did not do so, instead using the analysis as a dire warning to shake Democrats into donating to Act Blue, a Democratic political action committee.

“This week, election-forecasting guru Nate Silver released his first assessment of the 2014 elections … and his forecast isn’t great for Democrats,” she wrote. “Nate Silver projects the Republicans have a 60 percent chance of taking control of the Senate this November. That would be a disaster.”

Ms. Stabenow goes on to mention three Democratic incumbents in serious fights for re-election in Republican-leaning Alaska, Arkansas and Louisiana and stresses the need to make sure they have strong grassroots organizations.

As for Michigan’s closely watched U.S. Senate race, Mr. Silver’s current analysis holds a 55 percent chance that Democratic U.S. Rep. Gary Peters wins the seat compared to a 45 percent chance for Republican Terri Land.

Al Franken, Journalistic Prophet
Posted: March, 26 2014 2:51 PM

Over the years, certain films have expertly foreshadowed the future of U.S. journalism.

“Network,” “Absence of Malice” and “Broadcast News,” for example.

But while covering Governor Rick Snyder’s announcement today declaring the state would not recognize Saturday’s same-sex marriages pending the outcome of the state’s appeal of a Friday ruling striking down Michigan’s ban on same-sex marriage, I recalled a funny bit Al Franken, now a Democratic U.S. senator from Minnesota, did for “Saturday Night Live” during the 1988 presidential campaign.

The print reporters on hand for today’s announcement (and by print, I mean those whose primary medium of providing news is through the written word), myself included, all shot video of Mr. Snyder’s announcement with their phones. Meanwhile, we simultaneously asked questions of the governor and began distributing the news electronically through our company platforms and social media.

Mr. Franken saw the era of the all-purpose journalist coming 26 years ago.

Schuette’s Bracket… COME ON
Posted: March, 20 2014 12:07 PM

It is the first day of the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament, which means it is a de facto national holiday and most of the country is performing the annual ritual of filling out a bracket to pick the national champion, peg some upsets and win some money … for charity of course.

My bracket is done, and I went with my alma mater, Michigan State University, because the team is loaded and finally playing to its potential, and when my school is a contender for the championship, I would feel disloyal picking against it.

In recent years, politicians, notably President Barack Obama, have gotten in on the action by publicizing their bracket. Some folks, which I will brand the Fun Police, have moaned that this is a waste of time AND WHY AREN’T THEY DEVOTING ALL 86,400 SECONDS IN THE DAY TO SERVING THE PUBLIC?!

Personally, I love it. It’s fun. I liked reading the MSU players’ reaction to Mr. Obama picking them to win the championship.

Last year, MLive, to its credit had several Michigan political figures fill out a bracket a posted them. One of those was Attorney General Bill Schuette.

I remember looking at the bracket and nearly falling over. Yes, Mr. Schuette had done what several others in Michigan were doing and picked MSU to face the University of Michigan in the championship game.

On the one hand, I thought, that’s fine, showing home state pride. But then I looked more closely and that meant he had picked U-M to beat Georgetown University, his undergraduate alma mater, in the Elite Eight round. At the time, that shocked me, considering that Georgetown was a highly rated 2-seed yet he went against his own Hoyas.

In hindsight, maybe Mr. Schuette was on to something though because the Hoyas suffered a stunning first-round defeat to upstart Florida Gulf Coast and indeed U-M made it all the way to the title game.

What was hard to fathom though was that Mr. Schuette did not pick a champion between MSU and U-M, leaving it blank. I can only assume he did not want to offend fans of one of the schools.

If you’re going to fill out a bracket and especially if you’re going to make it public, you pick a champion. This is obvious.

This year, Mr. Schuette posted a photo of himself on Facebook filling out a bracket and said he was again picking MSU and U-M to make the title game, but this time would leave it to the Facebook masses to pick his champion. Whichever school’s fans left more comments on the post picking their team would be his choice, he said.

Ugh.

A few things.

One, as of this morning, MSU led with 36 saying he should pick MSU to 24 for U-M, so I presume MSU will get the nod.

Two, Mr. Schuette, like Mr. Obama, received some unfair abuse in the comments from the Fun Police questioning his use of time to fill out a bracket. Okay, so people on Facebook, which exists to distract people from work, took the time to tell Mr. Schuette not to waste time. Got it. That seems fair.

Three, showing that this attempt to please all the people all the time was destined to fail, some Western Michigan University fans questioned how Mr. Schuette could leave the Broncos out of the equation since their team is in the tournament too.

Four, pick Michigan State, Mr. Attorney General. Izzo. March. What more do you need to know?

An Homage To The Career Candidate
Posted: March, 14 2014 4:45 PM

Seeing that Harold Leeman Jr. has filed paperwork to set up a committee to run for the 23rd Senate District in Ingham County brought a couple thoughts to mind.

Number one, donors across the area likely are groaning at the thought that this probably means Ingham Register of Deeds Curtis Hertel Jr., the prohibitive favorite, will step up his already voracious fundraising efforts now that he has a “challenger” (and I use that word generously in this case) for the Democratic nomination.

Number two, even in this record-setting winter, it brings me great warmth to know that in politics we can count on certain things: namely that every other year, a few people will do what they always do, run for office even though they have little to no chance of winning.

These are the Washington Generals of politics, the “career candidates,” the folks who plunk down $100 for the right to appear on the ballot for the Legislature every even-numbered year. Some do it out of party loyalty to ensure someone flies the party flag in a district where the other party dominates. Others do it for personal attention. And others for reasons known only to them.

Mr. Leeman has mostly run for Lansing city offices over the years – and did serve on the Lansing City Council at one point. But he has racked up a boatload of losses since then, most recently in a 2012 House bid. Undeterred at finishing sixth out of seven candidates in the 2012 Democratic primary for the 68th House District with just 4.61 percent of the vote, Mr. Leeman is going to try to contest the Hertel Jr. Juggernaut this year. Good luck with that.

Here are some other examples running for office this year despite never coming close multiple times in the past:

  • Tonya Renay Wells of Detroit in the 5th House District, making her fourth bid for the House since 2002 despite never having gotten more than 7 percent in a Democratic primary; and
  • Robert Murphy of Romeo, the Democratic nominee in the 36th House District in 2004, 2006, 2008, 2010 and 2012, back for another go. He has won several Democratic primary contests, but in the solidly Republican seat has never gotten more than 39 percent in the November general election.

These champions of democracy should take heart though. One of the all-time career candidates did win once. Bettie Cook Scott had run for several different offices, including the House in 1998, 2000, 2002 and 2004, losing in the Democratic primary each time, sometimes terribly. But in 2006, Ms. Scott won the primary and then election in November. And she won re-election in 2008.

Alas, Ms. Scott tried for the Senate in 2010 and lost the Democratic primary. And then she tried to return to the House in 2012, but somehow filed to run in the wrong district and so was disqualified from the ballot.

Still, Ms. Scott’s 2006 and 2008 victories can allow career candidates to dream.

A Friendly Reminder On Effective Dates
Posted: March, 13 2014 4:41 PM

At the risk of sounding repetitive, I have a public service announcement for everyone regarding the date of laws enacted in 2013, but not given immediate effect nor a specific effective date in the legislation.

Those laws take effect tomorrow, Friday, March 14 – not today.

Last year, the issue of the effective date for a key law arose with the right-to-work laws. Last year, just like this year, a variety of people – partisans, journalists, interested parties – asserted the effective date was one day earlier than it was.

This year, the issue is PA 182 of 2013, the legislation barring insurers from including coverage for abortion in standard policies and instead requiring the purchase of an optional rider for those who want the coverage.

I will reiterate almost verbatim what I wrote about this time last year on when right-to-work was to take effect (and, in fairness, we at Gongwer got bit by this the other day and had the wrong date ourselves).

No effective date was placed in the initiative affecting abortion insurance coverage, and the Legislature did not give the bill immediate effect, so generally we say the bill takes effect 90 days after the sine die adjournment of the Legislature.

Sine die is Latin (pronounced sye-nee dye) for “without day.” It is the final session day of the year for the Legislature, in this case December 13, and it adjourns without day instead of to a specific date. The Constitution mandates the Legislature then reconvene the second Wednesday in January.

The trick, though, is that such laws do not take effect on the 90th day. The Constitution declares, “No act shall take effect until the expiration of 90 days from the end of the session at which it was passed.” (emphasis added)

The 90th day is today, the 13th. But the day after those 90 days expire is Friday, the 14th.

Term Limits And The State Senate
Posted: March, 7 2014 4:11 PM

When term limits first prevented members of the Senate from seeking re-election in 2002, it forced the exit of 31 of the 38 members.

Supporters of term limits said that over time, as members retired or saw other political opportunities, it would even out a bit to avoid such extreme turnover every eight years.

Finally, 12 years later, that is starting to happen. Initially, going into 2014, just seven of the 38 members faced automatic replacement because of term limits. But, now that number of departures has risen to 11.

Sen. Bruce Caswell (R-Hillsdale) and Sen. Howard Walker (R-Traverse City) decided not to run again. And Sen. Vincent Gregory (D-Southfield) and Sen. Bert Johnson (D-Highland Park) are forgoing re-election bids to run for the U.S. House.

If anyone loses re-election this year, the number will rise still more. But for now, this means that no more than 27 new senators will arrive to the chamber after the 2018 elections – presuming of course that everyone elected this year with eligibility to run again does so.

What does any of this mean? It will stabilize the experience factor at least a little so that on January 1, 2019, there are more senators with experience to chair committees and serve key leadership roles.

It also will reduce some of the pressure on the House because open Senate seats always draw incumbent House members to run, so it should mean fewer open House seats in 2018 and prevent some of the rampant turnover that hits that body as a result of term limits.

Shirkey Hoops It Up
Posted: March, 6 2014 1:43 PM

Shortly before the University of Michigan basketball team prepared to play Illinois on Tuesday in a game that would see the school win its first outright Big Ten title in 28 years, the official Michigan Basketball Facebook page posted a photo to fire up fans.

Here is the photo:

There are three recognizable faces, two obvious to college basketball followers and one for those who follow state government and politics. On the left is U-M head coach John Beilein. In the foreground is forward Glenn Robinson III. And to Robinson’s right, standing up, with the white hair and smiling (and circled by me for your benefit) is Rep. Mike Shirkey (R-Clarklake).

With nearly 2,600 people sharing the photo to their own Facebook timelines and more than 12,000 liking it, word of the Shirkey cameo quickly spread like wildfire.

Rep. Patrick Somerville (R-New Boston) used his Facebook page to ask Mr. Shirkey if the person in the photo was in fact him, and Mr. Shirkey responded in the affirmative. “They're not used to having someone a bit animated in the front row,” he wrote back.

This is certainly a happier photo than the last time a Michigan elected official was snapped in a notable one at Crisler Center. Last season, a Detroit Free Press photographer snapped a shot of Governor Rick Snyder, who was sitting courtside with his wife Sue, grimacing as forward Mitch McGary nearly crashed into them while diving for a loose ball.

Warren Gets An Early Look At The Dingell Buzz Saw
Posted: February, 27 2014 12:12 PM

Sen. Rebekah Warren of Ann Arbor is a rising star in the Michigan Democratic Party – popular with the party base, capable of an oratorical punch and yet skilled enough legislatively that she has worked with majority Republicans on some notable issues.

But if she runs for the 12th U.S. House District and vies with Debbie Dingell for the Democratic nomination and the opportunity to succeed Ms. Dingell’s legendary husband, U.S. Rep. John Dingell of Dearborn, about the gentlest way to describe that decision would be that Ms. Warren must like a challenge.

Ms. Warren’s problem is simple. Ms. Dingell, a Democratic Party powerbroker who has worked alongside her husband for decades, is seen by many Democrats as the obvious successor.

And as Ms. Warren found out Wednesday, that view is not just held in Mr. Dingell’s longtime home base in Dearborn and the Downriver suburbs of Detroit.

No, the Dingell campaign served up a taste of what is to come when several top elected and former elected officials in Ms. Warren’s home base of Washtenaw County announced their backing for Ms. Dingell, a region her husband has represented for a relatively brief, given his 59 years in office, 11 years.

Among those backing Ms. Dingell are Ms. Warren’s immediate predecessor in the Senate, former Sen. Liz Brater of Ann Arbor, Rep. Adam Zemke of Ann Arbor and Rep. David Rutledge of Ypsilanti. Some local officials also threw their support to Ms. Dingell.

If Ms. Warren runs, her path to victory would have to include running up a huge margin in Washtenaw County, so these endorsements send the message that Team Dingell will make no such concession.

The other problems Ms. Warren would have to confront are a likely financial disadvantage in campaign funds and the short five-month campaign. If there is a path for Ms. Warren to beat Ms. Dingell, it would be to run a populist, grassroots campaign, place an emphasis on her legislative accomplishments and hope Ms. Dingell makes some missteps in her first big-time campaign (I am not counting Ms. Dingell’s victory in the Wayne State University Board of Governors race as big-time).

But five months is an awfully short window for Ms. Warren to raise the $1 million needed, introduce herself to the vast majority of the district in Wayne County that does not know her AND somehow persuade Democratic voters and key endorsing groups that Ms. Dingell is an unacceptable successor to Mr. Dingell.

The temptation to run is understandable. Congressional seats do not open often, and under term limits Ms. Warren can only seek one more term in the Michigan Senate. But if Wednesday’s endorsement announcements for Ms. Dingell are a sign of what is to come, and they surely are, Ms. Warren will have to ask herself whether her running amounts to a challenge worth the risk or a longshot so long that another four years in Lansing makes more sense.

Republicans Might Dare To Dream If Ficano Runs
Posted: February, 21 2014 4:42 PM

Wayne County Executive Robert Ficano sounded like someone planning to run for re-election during his recent State of the County speech, and if he does, an unthinkable possibility has to be considered – that a Republican, yes, a Republican – might have a shot at winning the post if Mr. Ficano somehow survives the Democratic primary.

A quadrant of scandals has torched Mr. Ficano’s standing in the past four years.

To recap quickly:

  • There was the severance scandal involving Turkia Mullin where she was given severance after voluntarily leaving her post to run Detroit Metropolitan Airport that eventually incinerated not only her career but also that of Mr. Ficano’s top aide, Azzam Elder.
  • Several top members of the Ficano administration are embroiled in a federal corruption investigation.
  • The financially troubled county appears on the verge of state intervention with talk of an emergency manager in the air.
  • There was the humiliating collapse of one of Mr. Ficano’s top priorities, a criminal justice center now ridiculed as the “fail jail” because of runaway costs and a lack of oversight that led the county to abandon the project.

If Mr. Ficano faced a single Democratic foe for the party’s nomination in the August primary, he would be a severe underdog for renomination. But at least three Democrats are running or expected to run for the nomination: Rep. Phil Cavanagh of Redford Township, Wayne County Commissioner Kevin McNamara, son of the legendary former executive Ed McNamara; and Westland Mayor Bill Wild.

So it is possible in a four-way race that Mr. Ficano could somehow eke out a victory if the three challengers split the vote in the suburbs while Detroit voters could opt for the name they know in Mr. Ficano even if he is under heavy fire. Mr. Cavanagh has roots in the city, having grown up there when his father was mayor in the 1960s.

If Mr. Ficano is the Democratic nominee, then the question becomes whether Republicans could somehow find a way to convince the heavily Democratic county to put party aside and toss Mr. Ficano as too scandal-ridden to continue.

Even with all of Mr. Ficano’s problems, it would be extremely difficult. So many people vote a straight Democratic ballot in the county, especially in Detroit, that many voters will never see the two names on the ballot for county executive to give the Republican a chance.

And so far, no Republican has stepped forward, either in public or behind the scenes, despite the thought in Wayne County GOP circles that the party must put forward a credible candidate as opposed to the traditional cannon fodder.

The numbers are daunting. Even in 2010, a great Republican year, Democratic gubernatorial candidate Virg Bernero still beat Republican Governor Rick Snyder in Wayne County, 58 percent to 40 percent, or by a margin of about 115,000 votes. Mr. Snyder actually won the Wayne County suburbs, but it was nowhere near enough to overcome a 155,649 vote deficit out of Detroit.

Presuming the Detroit vote remained loyal to Mr. Ficano as the Democratic candidate, a Republican would probably have to win about 70-75 percent of the vote in the suburbs to win the race. Mr. Ficano’s problems are so severe that such a scenario actually seems possible. Extremely difficult, but at least possible.

The party will first have to find someone to run. And then it will have to wish Mr. Ficano well in the primary because if any of the other Democrats win that race, then the Republican nominee’s reward for running will be receiving the customary beatdown in November.

Economy Trumping Schools To Snyder’s Benefit, Poll Shows
Posted: February, 14 2014 1:53 PM

Voters strongly disapprove of how Governor Rick Snyder is handling K-12 schools, but they also just as strongly think Michigan’s economy is improving, and the net effect is that Mr. Snyder’s fundamental numbers are looking better and better as he faces re-election later this year.

The K-12 job performance numbers – 26 percent rating Mr. Snyder’s effort as positive to 62 percent negative – is important in the sense that there is a ferocious debate occurring between Republicans and Democrats about whether Mr. Snyder has increased or cut funding to schools. Those numbers signal that Democrats should win that argument.

But the overall numbers show that voter attitudes on the economy matter more – as they usually do. Mr. Snyder’s overall job approval number is 46 percent positive and 53 percent negative – a whopping 29-point improvement from the education number. Mr. Snyder’s overall favorability number is strong at 52 percent with a favorable opinion of him to 40 percent unfavorable.

Based on this batch of polling conducted by EPIC/MRA February 5-11, as long as the economy keeps improving, and more importantly, voters think the economy is improving, Democrats and their gubernatorial candidate Mark Schauer can emphasize Mr. Snyder’s record on K-12, but it will not be nearly enough even if voters side with them on the issue.

Even with only 26 percent approving of how Mr. Snyder is handling education, he still gets 47 percent support when matched against Mr. Schauer, who gets 39 percent.

On the economy, Democrats have emphasized that Michigan remains in the top five states in the nation for unemployment. But 59 percent say the state’s economy is improving and 49 percent say the state overall is on the right track compared to 37 percent who say it is on the wrong track.

Democratic efforts are focused on turning out their base, something that did not happen in the Republican wave election of 2010. They have plenty of buttons to push to trigger better turnout and ensure a better performance this November. But to win, they will still have to convince fence-sitting voters. And that’s where it gets tricky.

Judging from this latest round of polling data, Democrats will have to find a way to convince voters that Michigan’s economy is not in as good shape as voters appear to think it is.

Prison Politics: Roles Reverse In Wake Of Escape
Posted: February, 11 2014 11:40 AM

Michael Elliot’s startling escape from the Ionia Correctional Facility nine days ago and carjacking/kidnapping of a woman as he fled the state has put prison politics back on the front-burner in Michigan.

Democrats have hammered Republican Governor Rick Snyder, up for re-election this year, blaming cuts in the Department of Corrections for enabling Mr. Elliot’s escape. One of the reductions, the end of constant vehicle patrols around prison perimeters, did occur under Mr. Snyder. The other one, ending constant staffing of guard towers, took place during Governor Jennifer Granholm’s term.

Two investigations are under way and already the state has suspended two employees in the incident, in which Mr. Elliot was caught in Indiana and the woman he kidnapped was found uninjured.

Meanwhile, Republicans have torn into Democrats for playing the blame game. The Michigan Republican Party’s communications director, Darren Littell, accused Democrats of exploiting the situation to score political points even as Mr. Snyder and Attorney General Bill Schuette address the situation.

If this all sounds vaguely familiar, that’s because it is.

Flash back to 2006 when the Department of Corrections’ mistaken parole of Patrick Selepak and failure to pick him up on a parole violation preceded his committing three murders.

When the facts of the situation became public, Republicans excoriated Ms. Granholm and blasted her administration’s management of the Corrections system.

By October, in the heat of the gubernatorial campaign between Republican Dick DeVos and Democrat Granholm, the party sought to hang Mr. Selepak around Ms. Granholm with a mailing that charged, "Governor Granholm and her state prison director. If they can't do the job, why are they still on the job?"

The players involved in this new Corrections controversy have changed, as have the sides each political party is on, but the messages mirror the arguments of eight years ago.

Minimum Wage Activists Avoid Constitutional Tangle
Posted: February, 10 2014 3:58 PM

Activists, powerful families and unions proposed five different amendments to Michigan’s Constitution in 2012, and voters stomped all four in landslide defeats.

One of the major reasons voters rejected all five was the message from opponents against installing the proposals into the state’s basic governing document, unchangeable without another statewide vote.

Memorably, one ad featured a person who said, “None of this junk belongs in the Constitution.” And you may remember Attorney General Bill Schuette saying in another ad, almost in a rap, “Don’t mess, don’t mess with Michigan’s Constitution.”

Opponents had effective individual messages against most of the proposals, but the overall message was simple and it worked.

Against this backdrop came the decision Monday for the organization seeking to raise the state’s minimum wage to $9.50 an hour to pursue their ballot proposal via a voter-initiated act, not a constitutional amendment. That means it will be subject to legislative amendment or repeal if voters pass it – if three-quarters majorities in both legislative houses agree to any changes, as well as the governor.

But it also takes away the “don’t mess with the Constitution” argument.

Polls have shown increasing the minimum wage is popular. Had activists sought to put the change into the Constitution, opponents could have offered a proven argument that could have peeled away a good chunk of support.

The tougher lift with a ballot proposal always is for the supporters to obtain the yes votes, but the opposition’s task will be tougher as a result of the strategy supporters have chosen.

The Snyder Budget And the 2014 Election
Posted: February, 6 2014 2:01 PM

A key component of the Democratic message against Governor Rick Snyder is that he has hurt large swaths of the state’s population with his budgets.

To recap, Democrats have criticized:

  • Cuts to schools, resulting in school closings, program cutbacks and teacher layoffs;
  • Cuts to universities, resulting in tuition increases; and
  • Cuts in revenue sharing aid to local governments, resulting in the deterioration of local government services, even severe financial distress.

Let’s set aside for the moment whether Democrats are right about what Mr. Snyder has done, and of course Republicans and Mr. Snyder would heatedly object to the Democratic analysis, especially on schools, where the debate has gotten a bit chippy in the last three weeks.

Mr. Snyder’s recommended budget for the 2014-15 fiscal year, which begins October 1, would restore some of the funds cut from those three spending areas in the 2011-12 fiscal year budget. Democrats are trying to avoid letting this budget damage their message, and this fundraising email from Sen. Hoon-Yung Hopgood (D-Taylor) today on behalf of Senate Democrats summarizes their response to the budget well.

“The governor and the extremist Republicans in the Legislature are hoping that by passing a slightly less offensive budget this year, voters will forget the harm done by the last three budgets. We simply can’t let them get away with it,” he wrote.

But clearly, Republicans think Mr. Snyder has outflanked Democrats and his Democratic challenger Mark Schauer by taking away a key argument. Republican political consultant Tom Shields of Marketing Resource Group tweeted Wednesday that Mr. Snyder’s budget checkmates Mr. Schauer.

In the end, the question of who is right about whether Mr. Snyder has cut funding or increased funding to schools – and a good case can be made for both sides – will matter less than what the reality is school district by school district, municipality by municipality and for each family with a student in one of Michigan’s 15 public universities.

If voters think their local school district is improving or maintaining a quality education, they are more likely to believe Mr. Snyder and the Republicans. Conversely, if they see their local district worsening or operating at a mediocre level without signs of improvement, they are more likely to believe Mr. Schauer and the Democrats.

The same goes for the services provided by their city, village or township and when assessing whether they see tuition prices as reasonable or excessive.

School districts, universities and local governments will set their budgets for the upcoming fiscal year late this spring and early this summer. Their decisions should play a significant role in which side prevails in this argument.

In Honor Of The Last True Campaign Finance Eve
Posted: January, 30 2014 2:37 PM

The political community in Michigan is full of anticipation and with good reason: Friday marks the day when all candidates for state office must submit their reports showing how much money they raised for their campaigns in 2013, what they spent and how much they have left.

There is nowhere to hide, except for those who decide to flout the law and not turn in their report (cough cough, Rep. John Olumba, cough cough, has never yet turned in his report on time, cough cough).

Donors and potential donors, campaign tacticians, opponents and possible opponents, colleagues, the news media and others will know whether candidates took care of business on the fundraising front for the past year to put themselves in a strong position or if they let rust creep into their operations and left themselves vulnerable.

Those who performed well will get huzzahs from their party’s campaign staff. Those who did not are going to get the proverbial trip to the woodshed.

But with changes to Michigan’s campaign finance law passed late in 2013 and signed by Governor Rick Snyder, analyzing the non-election year fundraising performances will never be the same.

Starting in 2015, those with candidate committees will have to report quarterly in the non-election year, instead of in January the following year.

That is similar to what federal law requires of candidates for Congress.

Those reports will still be important, and we will still surely cover them, but that sense of anticipation to see a year’s worth of data will be gone.

Mining Gazette Becomes The Story In Cannon Flap
Posted: January, 29 2014 3:32 PM

No reporter or news organization wants to become the story.

But that is what has happened with the Daily Mining Gazette, the newspaper based in Houghton, in the wake of how it has handled its coverage of a strange incident in the nationally watched 1st U.S. House District race between Democrat Jerry Cannon and the man he hopes to unseat, U.S. Rep. Dan Benishek (R-Crystal Falls).

Earlier this month, the newspaper quoted Mr. Cannon as denouncing the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act in harsh terms and in a way that was totally at odds with his previous public statements on the issue. He allegedly had made those comments in a phone interview.

The next day, the newspaper published a follow-up piece that said:

“In a story that ran Thursday, comments from a follow-up call made Thursday by the Gazette were attributed to Jerry Cannon indicating that he wants to repeal the Affordable Care Act. Campaign manager Ted Dick said Cannon had not been the person speaking in the call, and that the phone with the number provided to the Gazette had been turned off during the time of the call.”

The piece went on to quote from a statement from Cannon discussing the good and bad aspects of the Affordable Care Act from his point of view.

Republicans have had a field day with the incident, claiming Mr. Cannon either got caught speaking his mind on what he really thinks of the ACA or that implausibly someone was impersonating Mr. Cannon.

Democrats have insisted Mr. Cannon could not possibly have made the remarks, asserting he does not carry a phone for the campaign and say they have checked the phone’s records and seen no record of the Mining Gazette calling Mr. Cannon.

There’s one party here that can put this issue to rest, and that’s the Mining Gazette – either the reporter who wrote the original story or the paper’s editor. The editor offered a brief, uninformative explanation to National Review Online, but since then has gone silent. He has not returned my calls, or those of other media outlets.

This is not difficult. If the paper checks its phone records, or the reporter checks his cell phone records, depending on where the call originated, they can figure out whom the reporter called and if it was someone from the campaign or a misdial and an incredible stroke of bad luck that the person answering played along as though he was Mr. Cannon.

Then the newspaper needs to do what journalists do in a situation like this – publicly offer an explanation of what happened. What it has said so far about the incident has only raised more questions.

DGA Serves Notice Schauer-Snyder Race Is On
Posted: January, 28 2014 12:36 PM

Republican Governor Rick Snyder has had a strong few months politically, and it has made it difficult for his Democratic challenger, Mark Schauer, to get traction, especially with nine months to go until Election Day and most voters not paying attention.

Mr. Snyder pulled out to a lead in the polls in the fall, after months of being in a dead heat with Mr. Schauer, about the same time as his campaign – and even though he has not said he is running for re-election, there is no doubt he is campaigning – aired $1 million in ads touting his record. The governor also is getting good marks, so far, from voters for how he is handling the Detroit financial crisis and that could be a factor in the polls as well.

Meanwhile, Mr. Snyder has a big early campaign cash advantage on Mr. Schauer, whose decision to apply for state matching funds for the primary phase of the campaign (and the associated $2 million spending cap through August 5) prompted talk by Republicans that Democratic interests might shy away from helping him, fearing investing in an underdog candidate. If that came to pass, then Mr. Schauer certainly would be in trouble.

Well, that’s not coming to pass.

As Gongwer News Service reported, the Democratic Governors Association is making a major buy on Mr. Schauer’s behalf. It will total $1 million, and the ad features Mr. Schauer touting his resume and criticizing Mr. Snyder’s education record. Clearly, national Democrats are backing up their talk that they want to win this race.

The timing is significant. Mr. Snyder is set to air an ad this Sunday during Super Bowl XLVIII and has purchased some additional time on cable as well. With the governor already leading, allowing him another wave of unanswered advertising could have pushed his numbers up to a dangerous level for Democrats.

So this ad splurge will counter Mr. Snyder’s ads. Just as importantly, it will get Mr. Schauer’s name, face and story out to at least the Detroit and west Michigan markets (it is not yet clear if the DGA’s buy is statewide). Mr. Schauer’s biggest problem in the polls to this point has been his low statewide name identification.

A December poll from Public Policy Polling put Mr. Schauer’s favorability number at 15 percent and unfavorable number at 21 percent, meaning almost two-thirds of voters either didn’t recognize his name or didn’t know enough about him to form an opinion.

But if these ads are a major development in the race, then the round of polling that will come in the immediate aftermath will be even bigger. Mr. Schauer would get a perception boost for his case that he can beat Mr. Snyder if the numbers move at least somewhat in his direction and he gets a bump in his favorability rating.

If the ad has no effect, Mr. Schauer’s case will take a hit.

When A Governor Did Zing Someone By Name In The State Of The State
Posted: January, 21 2014 1:19 PM

Governor Rick Snyder won both praise and scorn for including in his State of the State speech a call to civility and condemnation of derogatory remarks in recent months from people he did not specify.

Many Republicans praised Mr. Snyder, seeing his remarks as a thinly veiled rebuke of Michigan’s Republican National Committeeman, Dave Agema, who regularly uses his Facebook account to slur Muslims and gays, either in his own words or by reposting something from another author without any commentary of his own, leaving anyone reading the material to conclude he must agree with it.

But Democrats and advocates in the gay community saw his comments as a dodge. Mr. Snyder did not name Mr. Agema in the speech and when reporters asked the governor’s press secretary after the speech whether Mr. Snyder was targeting Mr. Agema, Sara Wurfel said Mr. Snyder was speaking generally and not of any one person.

Friday, Mr. Snyder told the Macomb Daily, “This is the State of the (State) address so I'm not going to aim my comments at one individual. I wanted to make a general statement that there are multiple people out there who make comments that I view as inappropriate, because they're about differences of views or backgrounds.”

Well, there was a State of the State address where a governor did aim his comments at one individual.

Does the name Ed Vaughn ring a bell?

In 1999, then-Governor John Engler was delivering his State of the State address amid the tension of his anticipated, soon-to-be announced plans to initiate a state-led takeover of the Detroit Public Schools.

The day of the State of the State, Mr. Vaughn, a Democratic House member from Detroit, issued a news release calling Mr. Engler a "great white father" and said he was acting like a "plantation master" in his effort to take over Detroit schools.

Needless to say, Mr. Engler was not pleased.

In the speech, as he discussed the situation with the Detroit schools, Mr. Engler began using then-President Bill Clinton as a way to hammer Democratic opposition to intervening in the Detroit schools.

After saying he agreed with Mr. Clinton that failing schools should be shut down, Mr. Engler, in an ad lib that was not part of his prepared remarks, said, "In fact, I don't see how anybody could disagree – Representative Vaughn."

Now, the two situations have some differences. Mr. Agema has slurred an entire religion or group of people based on their sexual orientation. Mr. Vaughn specifically targeted Mr. Engler. And let’s not forget that Mr. Engler’s and Mr. Snyder’s personalities and governing styles are starkly different.

Most of all, Mr. Engler’s singling out of a little-known state lawmaker in the speech for a lone remark made relatively small waves. But Mr. Snyder rebuking Mr. Agema by name – given his high profile from more than a year’s worth of national headlines for repeatedly impugning gays and Muslims – would have become a major story, possibly even *the* story out of the speech.

But by not acknowledging after the speech that Mr. Agema was the target, or one of the targets, of his remarks, Mr. Snyder’s remarks lost some punch, especially compared to those of his predecessor from Beal City.

Hathaway, Prison, Richard Simmons, Etc.
Posted: January, 17 2014 3:13 PM

If you are still burned at how former Supreme Court Justice Diane Hathaway committed fraud so she could enable a short sale for one of her homes and wipe out $600,000 in debt, I suggest flipping through the imprisoned Ms. Hathaway’s application to be transferred to a halfway house more than five months before her prison sentence ends.

I’ll pause so you can look at the below image because in this case, a picture is worth a thousand words.


Yes, that is a certificate of achievement from the Alderson federal prison, where Ms. Hathaway is incarcerated, for Ms. Hathaway having completed 16 hours of training to “Sweating to the Oldies,” the video workouts led by none other than Richard Simmons.

So prison apparently is so miserable that Ms. Hathaway is using workout videos like this to pass the time:

The Abortion Insurance Referendum Mess
Posted: January, 14 2014 12:45 PM

If you want Exhibit A of why Right to Life of Michigan has demonstrated a superior political operation compared to the umbrella of groups that support the legal right to an abortion, look no further than what happened Monday.

In the morning, Rick Pluta, the stellar Capitol reporter for the Michigan Public Radio Network, posted an item on his Twitter account that the umbrella of groups that support abortion rights had decided not to seek repeal of the new law making it more difficult to have insurance coverage for abortions.

The news was not a great shock because to repeal the law via a referendum on the November ballot, activists would have had to gather at least 161,305 signatures of registered voters by March 14. They had three months from the time the law was enacted to get started, but spent the first month polling and talking about what to do. Trying to pull that off in just seven or eight weeks from a standing start would have been extremely difficult.

Still, it was a big deal. The law, pursued by Right to Life via a voter-initiated act in which they gathered more than the necessary 258,088 signatures to put it before the Legislature, which under the Constitution enacted it without the measure having to go to Governor Rick Snyder, dominated the Capitol in December.

Past legislation sought by Right to Life on items like parental consent, a 24-hour waiting period or banning a late term procedure the group calls partial birth abortion had pretty decent support in the polls, even among some who favor the right to an abortion. But the polling on the law requiring women who want abortion insurance coverage to purchase a separate rider, even in cases of rape or incest, suggested it was unpopular.

Still, putting together an organization stout enough to pull off the signatures in three months was going to be an expensive, difficult climb for groups with no recent track record of executing such a challenging political operation. So they pulled the plug, reserving the possibility of some broader proposal for the November ballot, and reporters wrote their stories.

Then about 6 p.m., a surprise arrived in the form of a phone call from Robert McCann, the spokesperson for Senate Minority Leader Gretchen Whitmer (D-East Lansing), who so strongly opposed the abortion insurance limitation law that she shocked the Senate with a floor speech before the vote revealing she had been raped while in college to demonstrate how offensive the law is.

Mr. McCann said Ms. Whitmer and others were still considering a referendum, and that the declaration of no interest in a referendum from the American Civil Liberties Union of Michigan and Planned Parenthood Advocates of Michigan came as a big surprise. The lack of coordination among allies is astonishing.

For whatever reason, the community of activists and organizations that supports keeping abortion legal, and resisting the regulatory legislation pushed by anti-abortion activists and lawmakers in the past 20-30 years, has struggled with trench politics. Even in years when Democrats have controlled the House, they still have failed to win a majority of the chamber supporting abortion rights.

Take the 2009-10 term, for example. Democrats had a huge 67-43 majority. Yet as I go back and look at the Democratic membership, I count at least 18 of the 67 who opposed abortion, or at the very least voted for the legislation backed by Right to Life during other terms.

The last two Democratic speakers of the House, Andy Dillon (2007-10) and Curtis Hertel Sr. (1997-98), both opposed abortion rights.

So the mess that unfolded Monday was really just the latest event in a long-running pattern of anti-abortion activists besting the pro-choice community on the political battlefield.

Quite A Week For Two Former Top House Democrats
Posted: January, 10 2014 10:46 AM

Andy Dillon and George Cushingberry Jr. hatched a deal in 2006 that took them to the heights of power at the Capitol. Mr. Dillon, fresh off winning a second term in the House, secured Mr. Cushingberry’s support to lead House Democrats and become the speaker, and in exchange Mr. Dillon agreed to appoint Mr. Cushingberry Appropriations Committee chair.

Mr. Dillon won the right to lead House Democrats by one vote, so Mr. Cushingberry’s backing, and the votes that brought Mr. Dillon, were pivotal.

Mr. Dillon would go on to wage an unsuccessful gubernatorial bid and then join the administration of Governor Rick Snyder as treasurer, eventually becoming a pariah among Democrats. Mr. Cushingberry recently won a seat on the Detroit City Council.

Both are back in the news this week and not in a good way.

Mr. Dillon announced October 11 he was resigning as treasurer effective November 1 after a year of personal problems that included issues with alcohol and a bitter divorce whose drama had become public. When he and Governor Rick Snyder announced the resignation, Mr. Snyder said he was glad Mr. Dillon would stay on to assist in the transition.

Everyone assumed that meant Mr. Dillon would assist new Treasurer Kevin Clinton, whose appointment was announced October 15, until his resignation became official November 1. The old saw about what happens when assuming anything proved true because it turns out what Mr. Snyder meant, but did not say, was that Mr. Dillon would retain a post with the state as senior adviser for months, continuing to draw every cent of the same amount the state paid him as treasurer.

Both Mr. Dillon and Mr. Snyder have taken a pounding on the issue this week for not outlining Mr. Dillon’s role more specifically when he resigned and for the state continuing to pay Mr. Dillon his treasurer’s salary when he no longer runs the department.

Meanwhile, Mr. Cushingberry has had a big week.

On Tuesday, Detroit News editorial page editor Nolan Finley penned a scathing column about the Detroit City Council, saying its decision to elect Brenda Jones, who historically has opposed controversial reforms in city government, instead of Saunteel Jenkins as council president was a sign the council was going to turn into a train wreck like so many of its predecessors.

Mr. Cushingberry, in a comment on the News’ website, wrote, “Dear Detroit News, Go to hell. Go straight to hell. Do not pass go and don't even think about collecting $200. Jones and Cush will lead the Push for an even Greater Detroit.”

Hours later, Detroit police pulled Mr. Cushingberry over after he left a lounge (with conflicting reports on whether it is a strip club) after nearly striking officers, the News reported, citing an unnamed source. Mr. Cushingberry allegedly refused to stop and another police vehicle had to be called to chase.

Upon finally stopping Mr. Cushingberry’s vehicle, police said there was an open intoxicant and marijuana inside. Mr. Cushingberry has told media outlets the bottle was an old rum bottle and that the passenger with marijuana was a registered medical marijuana user. Mr. Cushingberry has insisted he had only had one shot of rum before driving, did not flee police and is the victim of racial profiling.

Police, after notifying their supervisor they had stopped an elected official, let Mr. Cushingberry go, further adding to the controversy.

Putting aside these flaps, Mr. Dillon’s resignation meant he would not get to work alongside his old ally, Mr. Cushingberry, on Detroit’s finances. Had Mr. Dillon remained the treasurer, it would have been interesting to see how Mr. Cushingberry reacted to his handling of Detroit’s financial issues.

Maybe that would have meant an unlikely partner for the state on the council. Or maybe Mr. Cushingberry eventually would have told Mr. Dillon to join Mr. Finley in the same warm locale.

What To Make Of Schauer Using The Public Funding System
Posted: January, 8 2014 4:42 PM

Republicans were out in force Tuesday mocking the news that Democratic gubernatorial candidate Mark Schauer had decided to use the state’s public funding system for gubernatorial candidates for the primary phase of the election.

The move signals that Mr. Schauer is failing to catch fire and raise the kind of money necessary to oust Republican Governor Rick Snyder, they asserted.

Mr. Schauer will not reveal his fundraising haul from 2013 until January 31 when campaign finance reports are due, but a few conclusions can be reached as a result of his decision to use the public financing system.

One is that Mr. Schauer has raised less than $2 million. If he had raised more than $2 million, it is hard to imagine why Mr. Schauer would enter the public funding system, with its requirement he spend no more than $2 million through the August 5 primary, even if doing so would bring him up to $990,000 in matching contributions from the state.

A first-year haul of between $1-$2 million would put Mr. Schauer in about the same position fundraising-wise as former Lt. Governor John Cherry, who raised $1.36 million in 2009 ($1.48 million in 2013 dollars). The big difference though is that Mr. Cherry spent all that money and had to end his campaign after it ran out of cash. Mr. Schauer should be in much better shape when he announces his cash on hand later this month.

It would be a good deal less, however, than what Jennifer Granholm had when she first ran for governor in 2002. Ms. Granholm raised $2.84 million in 2001 ($3.74 million in 2013 dollars when adjusted for inflation) and opted not to use the public funding system for the primary.

The next conclusion is that Mr. Schauer does not expect to raise enough money between now and the August primary to justify not using the public funding system. Ms. Granholm raised a total of $5.68 million ($7.36 million in 2013 dollars) leading up to the 2002 primary (when unlike Mr. Schauer, who faces no competition, she faced top-level competition for the Democratic nomination).

Another conclusion is that outside Democratic groups – the Democratic Governors Association, unions or some fly-by-night organization that emerges just for this election, whomever – are going to have to fill the void or Mr. Schauer is in serious trouble. Mr. Snyder already spent $600,000 on fall advertising, and it was no coincidence that his numbers in the polls picked up in the aftermath.

And Mr. Snyder is about to spend about another $600,000 on ads in February. So one can only imagine what is in store for the spring and summer when Mr. Snyder and his well-funded allies could totally dominate the airwaves and define Mr. Schauer before he has the chance to introduce himself to voters in the fall.

Some Democrats are scoffing at the concern, noting that Republican Dick DeVos outspent Ms. Granholm 3-to-1 in the 2006 election yet Ms. Granholm won in a landslide. But Ms. Granholm spent $14.6 million in that election ($16.9 million in 2013 dollars). She had plenty of money to get her message out and hammer Mr. DeVos.

Based on Mr. Schauer’s move to use the public financing system, it is hard to imagine he will raise $16.9 million although at least he will not have to counter an onslaught like the $42 million Mr. DeVos spent.

At this point, Mr. Schauer’s hope is to follow U.S. Sen. Debbie Stabenow’s model from 2000 when the then congresswoman saved her money for a late advertising push that put her over the top against then-U.S. Sen. Spencer Abraham after outside groups kept her in the game during the spring and summer with advertising.

But if the outside group advertisements fail to materialize to aid Mr. Schauer, then Mr. Snyder is going to be very, very tough to stop.

Snyder And Bernero, Together Again
Posted: January, 7 2014 4:39 PM

Governor Rick Snyder and Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero campaigned against each other in 2010 for governor, joined forces in a 2012 video to defeat the anti-tax Proposal 12-5 and today they linked arms again at a down moment in both of their political careers.

Mr. Snyder and Mr. Bernero held a joint event at a Lansing city government facility to thank city workers clearing the roads after Sunday’s winter storm dropped 15 inches of snow in the capital city and then spoke with the news media about clean-up efforts.

The event was just the kind of bipartisan, feel-good move elected leaders hold at a time when Mother Nature turns nasty, something to encourage the employees toiling for long hours to keep the area functioning and reassure the public that their elected leadership is monitoring the situation and making sure all necessary actions are occurring.

And it was the exact opposite of how both handled the aftermath of the December 21-22 ice storm that left thousands in the Lansing area without power for as much as 10 days.

Mr. Bernero has been under greater fire. He appoints the board that oversees the city-owned Lansing Board of Water and Light. And while Mr. Bernero was visible after the ice storm, he did himself no favors, jawing at frustrated residents shouting at him during a news conference and then resolutely standing by the denounced BWL General Manager Peter Lark.

So steadfast was his support that critics cracked jokes about Mr. Bernero effectively saying, “Larkie, you’re doing a heck of a job” – a reference to former President George W. Bush’s disastrous compliment of former Federal Emergency Management Agency head Michael Brown during the failed response to Hurricane Katrina (“Brownie, you’re doing a heck of a job”).

Meanwhile, Mr. Snyder was virtually invisible during the crisis, making no public appearances, conducting no news conferences or teleconferences to discuss the situation with the public. Mr. Snyder also left the state, as we reported Monday, from late December 28 until returning the weekend of January 3-4 (See Gongwer Michigan Report, January 6, 2013).

Now, the Department of State Police was monitoring the situation closely, and Mr. Bernero’s insistence that there was no need to ask for state help put the governor in a bit of a bind. Even if Mr. Snyder recognized that BWL was clearly overwhelmed and in need of outside help from other utilities and wanted to intervene, it would have created a tricky political dynamic if he decided to ignore the wishes of the mayor whom he defeated in the 2010 gubernatorial election.

Mr. Snyder’s staff also has insisted he monitored the situation closely and that the administration explored all possible avenues of assisting Lansing and East Lansing, but was consistently told the help was not needed.

Still, looking at how both men have handled response to the winter storm suggests they have learned some lessons about how to react when disaster strikes. Mr. Snyder held a news conference Monday at a Department of Transportation garage in Detroit to discuss storm response and urge residents not to travel and to look out for each other. Mr. Bernero was making the rounds with local media to urge people to stay off the roads until city workers could clear the snow.

Mr. Bernero asked the state for assistance plowing major Lansing streets, and the state did so, allowing the city to focus on clearing neighborhood streets. At their joint news conference today, both hailed the partnership.

Lansing Power Outage Crisis A Full-Fledged Fiasco
Posted: December, 27 2013 11:28 AM

When everyone in the Lansing area finally gets power back – and it will eventually come back, right? – the Lansing Board of Water and Light had better get ready for some serious blowback about its (mis)handling of efforts to restore power to the thousands of residents and businesses left in the dark from Saturday’s ice storm.

BWL, as it is known locally, provides electricity to Lansing, East Lansing, Delta Township on Lansing’s western border and some other suburban communities. It is tied to Lansing’s city government with its board of commissioners appointed by Lansing’s mayor and confirmed by the city council. Like other municipally owned utilities, it is not subject to oversight and regulations from Michigan’s Public Service Commission, which has that responsibility for utilities like DTE and Consumers Energy.

“Somebody should take a look at this.”

Those were the words of one high-ranking government staffer who lives in East Lansing and like thousands of others in the area is going on DAY SIX without power. The folks at BWL should realize this person is but one of many people with great influence in state government who, like those who live in the area without connections in the government, is alarmed at how the ice storm has overwhelmed BWL in all respects: power restoration, customer service and communications.

And BWL is not alone. Consumers Energy customers, many of whom also are prominent figures in the area, also have been fuming at the long delays as well as struggles to report outages and downed lines.

There is no question that BWL crews are working tirelessly and bravely to try to restore power and doing so in freezing conditions.

But where is the cavalry? Some crews have been brought in from other states, but clearly not enough.

The lack of information from BWL has only intensified the worry of its customers still waiting for power to return and battling frigid houses, frozen water pipes, flooded basements from non-functioning sump pumps, and shelling out a small fortune on hotel bills and places to board pets. I know one person (another high-ranking government staffer) who had to flag down a BWL worker on his street to get an update on the situation. That, obviously, is not acceptable.

BWL is almost begging for state oversight with stories like the one I saw last night on WILX-TV, the Lansing NBC affiliate, where a Consumers Energy spokesperson explains how customers can request a $25 credit toward their bill if they have gone 120 hours without power. That’s mandated by Public Service Commission rule. In the next breath, WILX reported that BWL would not be offering such a credit.

BWL does not have to do so because the law setting up the PSC states it has no authority over municipally owned utilities.

There are a lot of people – many of them influential people – who are going to wonder aloud whether it is time for that to change.

National Pundits Starting Take Land Vs. Peters Seriously
Posted: December, 20 2013 4:44 PM

More major national publications that cover politics, or as I like to call them, the Gongwers of Washington, D.C., are indicating that the U.S. Senate race between Republican Terri Land and Democratic U.S. Rep. Gary Peters is competitive.

In November, noted analyst Stu Rothenberg wrote for Roll Call that he now considered Michigan “Democrat Favored,” more competitive than his previous analysis of “Safe Democrat.” Now the Cook Political Report has made the race a “toss-up,” its most competitive designation.

In some ways, I’m not sure how seriously to treat these changes. Mr. Rothenberg is as an astute a political analyst as there is, but the initial ranking of Michigan as “Safe Democrat” never made any sense to me. Yes, Democrats have dominated federal statewide elections in Michigan for two decades, but still, it is an open seat with no incumbent and the state trends a Republican in non-presidential election years.

Additionally, Ms. Land has good statewide name recognition from eight years as secretary of state while Mr. Peters remains unknown to large swaths of voters.

So was his reclassifying the race a sign of any real momentum for Ms. Land or simply a recognition that the initial classification was a mistake? I would argue for the latter.

Republicans are trumpeting the Cook change, and that makes more sense. That move signals that Washington politicos are seeing real potential for Ms. Land, who consistently is polling in a statistical tie with Mr. Peters in the past two months, to seriously compete. And because federal political action committee money is what now funds competitive U.S. Senate races, Ms. Land having credibility with the Washington set matters.

The campaign has been in something of a low-level attack phase. Democrats have spent the last several weeks needling Ms. Land on social issues like gay rights and abortion, tying her to controversies in Michigan on those issues, and hounding her for a lack of public appearances. Republicans have been hitting Mr. Peters on his support for the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, especially his promise in 2009 that people wanting to keep their insurance would be able to do so.

For now, Ms. Land is riding momentum from a solid first quarter fundraising report that helped ease doubts about whether she could raise money as well as her name recognition. However, she has yet to erase doubts among Republicans that she will be able to avoid missteps like what happened during a radio show interview a month ago when she appeared to backtrack on her support for repealing the Affordable Care Act (her campaign later issued a statement reiterating her support for doing so).

On the Peters side, it’s no mystery. He needs the Obama administration to get the troubled healthcare.gov website functioning well, the sooner the better, and the number of Michiganders signing up to surpass those whose bare-bones policies insurers cancelled for not meeting the standards set under the ACA for minimum coverage. Up until the healthcare.gov fiasco exploded in October, Mr. Peters was considered the clear front-runner.

Michigan has not had a legitimately competitive U.S. Senate race since 2000 when Republican U.S. Sen. Spencer Abraham failed to fend off then-U.S. Rep. and now-U.S. Sen. Debbie Stabenow in a race for the ages. It increasingly looks like after 14 years, a Michigan U.S. Senate seat is up for grabs.

Land, Snyder And Different Responses To The Same Issue
Posted: December, 17 2013 3:58 PM

In politics, once a person seeks or wins a certain level of office, the time where a reporter can contact the candidate or official directly unimpeded ends.

At that point, we contact what is known in the media world under varying terms – the press secretary, communications director, flack or spokesperson – either to obtain an answer from the candidate/official through that staffer or to ask to set up an interview with the candidate/official. Most of the time, that spokesperson will offer the position of the candidate/official to the question being asked.

And make no mistake, when a spokesperson for a candidate/official speaks in response to a question asked about where his/her boss stands on an issue, we take that as the position of the candidate/official.

However, sometimes an issue comes along so heated that eventually we will want the candidate/official to address it in his or her own words.

So it was with the recent controversy following the comments of Michigan’s Republican National committeeman, Dave Agema, at a Berrien County Republican Party function, on gays. In explaining his opposition to gay marriage, Mr. Agema said based on what he observed while working for American Airlines as a pilot, the only reason gays wanted marriage rights was because they were all dying of AIDS and needed free health insurance.

Immediately, reporters contacted two top Republicans in Michigan to respond – Governor Rick Snyder and Terri Land, who in addition to being the presumptive Republican nominee for U.S. Senate also is Mr. Agema’s colleague on the RNC as the state’s Republican National committeewoman.

The story initially had broken Saturday, December 7, in The Herald Palladium newspaper, but did not gain steam until the following Monday, especially after Equality Michigan demanded Republicans condemn Mr. Agema in an evening email. A day later, Mr. Snyder’s press secretary, Sara Wurfel, had condemned Mr. Agema’s remarks on Mr. Snyder’s behalf.

The following day, on Wednesday, Ms. Land’s campaign spokesperson, Heather Swift, also indicated Ms. Land disapproved of Mr. Agema’s comments. However, unlike Ms. Wurfel, Ms. Swift offered no response to a question of whether Ms. Land thought Mr. Agema should resign (Ms. Wurfel said that was up to Mr. Agema and the Republican Party, not the governor).

Democrats accused Ms. Land of hiding behind her spokesperson and called for her to directly speak on the controversy. That was a bit curious, considering that I can think of more than a few Democratic candidates and officeholders (and just as many Republican ones) over the years who trotted out their spokespersons to answer difficult questions for them. Still, the Democrats had a point that Ms. Land should answer the question of whether Mr. Agema should resign.

Then something surprising happened. A reporter for Mlive reached Ms. Land on the phone on Friday to get her direct thoughts on the Agema mess. But Ms. Land declined to elaborate on what problems she had with Mr. Agema’s remarks and deferred to Ms. Swift’s statement, Mlive reported.

Flash-forward to Monday, when Mr. Snyder appeared on the radio program “Michigan’s Big Show” with Michael Patrick Shiels, who asked Mr. Snyder if he would address the Agema controversy in his own words since only Ms. Wurfel had spoken on his behalf to that point.

Unlike Ms. Land, Mr. Snyder seemed unfazed.

“Those were my words. I worked with Sara on that,” he told Mr. Shiels of what Ms. Wurfel had said on the subject. “I just wasn’t available to come out and say them.”

Then Mr. Snyder did speak on the issue.

"What he said was absolutely inappropriate," he said. "And it was discriminatory. And those words shouldn't happen in our world so I would hope he would refrain from doing those in the future."

One Year Later, No Sign Of Right-To-Work Ending Anytime Soon
Posted: December, 11 2013 6:10 PM

One year has passed since Governor Rick Snyder capped a chaotic week in Michigan government and politics by signing into law bills making Michigan a right-to-work state where those working under a collective bargaining agreement no longer have to belong to the union or pay a non-member fee.

There is plenty of discussion today about whether the bill fulfilled supporters’ and opponents’ predictions. Backers forecasted companies expanding to Michigan with a surge in jobs while opponents warned the bill amounted to “right-to-work for less” that would severely damage personal income levels.

But with the law having only been in effect for a little more than eight months, and many unions unaffected because they are operating under collective bargaining agreements ratified prior to the right-to-work laws taking effect, it will be years before the full impact of right-to-work becomes clear.

To me, the most noteworthy development one year later is the lack of a clear plan from Democrats and unions to repeal right-to-work.

In the immediate aftermath of Mr. Snyder signing the law, many Democrats called for tapping into the fury among Democratic voters and launching recalls of Republican legislators. That helped prompt a Republican-led effort and new law making recalls more difficult.

The new recall law, combined with no appetite among unions to spend the millions it would take for a wide-ranging recall effort after spending millions in vain on failed ballot proposals in 2012, led to no recall effort taking place.

There are a handful of long-shot lawsuits moving through the courts, but those do not look promising.

Perhaps the single most obvious move, a ballot proposal to repeal right-to-work, also appears a non-starter. One of the leading right-to-work voices, Greg McNeilly, has warned supporters to be ready for unions to seek a ballot proposal that combines a popular minimum wage increase with a right-to-work repeal. But union officials continue to say they have no appetite for another ballot proposal fight after voters smashed their proposals in 2012.

The mantra among Democrats, for now, is that the best way to repeal right-to-work is to elect Democrats to office. And of course there is truth in that.

If Democrats gain the five seats needed to control the House, Democrat Mark Schauer unseats Republican Governor Rick Snyder and Democrats win at least eight seats to get to a 19-19 tie in the Senate with a Democratic lieutenant governor allowing them to control the chamber (Democrats start with a base of 11 seats, not the 12 they have now, due to redistricting) they could repeal right-to-work by the end of January most likely with an effective date in March 2015.

If. If. If.

The simple fact is there’s a reason Democrats have enjoyed that type of control of state government for only one year (1983) since the adoption of the 1963 Constitution, especially when considering the modern political dynamic in place since 1992: the governorship and Senate are not up for election in presidential years when Democrats do much better in this state.

To win that type of control in 2014, Mr. Schauer will have to do something that has never been done since Michigan went to a four-year gubernatorial term in the 1960s – deny an incumbent governor a second term. Incumbents overall are 6-1 when seeking re-election in that time. Senate Democrats would need to have their best performance since 1964 (the last time the Senate was up for election in a presidential year) when they gained 12 seats.

House Democrats have a more attainable goal at needing five seats, but still Democrats have gained seats in the House just once in the last six gubernatorial election years.

It is important to note that in politics, as in the stock market, past performance is not necessarily an indicator of future results. Any number of factors could occur in the next year to make 2014 a fantastic year for Democrats. But today, December 11, 2013, it is hard to envision a Democratic wave sweeping Michigan of the magnitude needed to bring them total control of the government.

So presuming Republicans at least hold on to the Senate, right-to-work is going to remain law through 2018 – unless Democrats turn to a ballot initiative.

But as of today, there’s no sign of that, or any other move, to overturn the law happening.

The Benson Conundrum
Posted: December, 4 2013 1:51 PM

Democrats have a bright political talent in Jocelyn Benson.

At just 36, she is the interim dean of the Wayne State University Law School. Three years ago, she lost a bid for secretary of state, but with 45.2 percent of the vote, she performed about four percentage points better than the Democratic base in that Republican wave election.

Ms. Benson managed the rare feat of securing a future as a player in Michigan Democratic politics despite losing thanks to the excitement she generated among Democratic voters and her ability to raise money.

Career-wise, Ms. Benson has settled in nicely, landing the plum post of interim dean at the Wayne State University Law School.

But in terms of her political career, the last three years have been scattershot. There were rumblings in 2011 and again this year about her running for Michigan Democratic Party chair. She declined to run both years.

There has been persistent talk about her waging a rematch in 2014 against Republican Secretary of State Ruth Johnson. There also was some talk of attorney general. There even was talk of a gubernatorial run. Of those posts, the one that Ms. Benson appeared most interested in was secretary of state given her background in election law.

But then in October, the word exploded in Democratic circles that Ms. Benson, who has lived in Detroit, was seriously considering moving to Northville and running for Congress in the 11th U.S. House District. She made the rounds in Washington, D.C., with key Democratic figures, and several Democrats were convinced she was going to run although Ms. Benson tried to tamp down expectations.

This possible bid befuddled many Democrats though. It would mean running in a Republican-leaning seat. It will be a big hill for any Democrat to climb, regardless of the Republican nominee – U.S. Rep. Kerry Bentivolio of Milford or mortgage foreclosure attorney David Trott. And there would be no spinning a second major loss as anything but a major setback to her political career.

There also is a Democratic candidate whom Michigan Democrats worked to recruit: Bobby McKenzie, a former counter-terrorism specialist at the U.S. Department of State. So Ms. Benson’s consideration of a run created some awkwardness in Democratic circles.

Ms. Benson declared Tuesday she would not run for Congress. Now the focus will return to a secretary of state bid. But that run would be fraught with difficulty.

Michigan Democrats’ priorities for 2014 are, in order, winning the governorship and control of the state House (and which comes first will likely oscillate a bit during the next year), electing U.S. Rep. Gary Peters (D-Bloomfield Township) to the U.S. Senate (though the critical funding for that race will come from national sources, making it less of a state party concern), not falling further behind on the Supreme Court where Republicans already have a 5-2 majority and making gains in the state Senate.

Somewhere after those races come the attorney general and secretary of state seats. There will only be so much money to go around, and Ms. Benson, for all her strengths, will need major money to win a rematch with Ms. Johnson. While Democrats would love to win the secretary of state post for the first time since 1990, their number one task – by far – is to end the Republicans’ complete control of the ability to make bills into law.

It is clear Ms. Benson wants to run for a major elected office. It also is clear Democrats would welcome the idea. It’s just totally unclear what office that will be and when.

Amash-Ellis Already A Fight
Posted: November, 27 2013 12:44 PM

The way U.S. Rep. Justin Amash and his challenger for the Republican nomination in the 3rd U.S. House District, Brian Ellis, are battling, it feels like mid-July, weeks before the August 5 primary, with campaign season at its peak.

But no, it is 25 degrees outside, and everyone is picking up their turkey in anticipation of Thanksgiving – more than eight months away from the primary.

There is no other race in Michigan right now that is as visceral and intense as this one, not the governor’s race and not the U.S. Senate race. The Republican primary in the 11th U.S. House District between U.S. Rep. Kerry Bentivolio (R-Milford) and his challenger, David Trott, is heating up.

But Bentivolio-Trott is at a simmer compared to what we have seen in Amash-Ellis where tea party/liberty forces are lining up to defend Mr. Amash at all costs while establishment/traditional Republicans see Mr. Amash as a loose cannon on key issues who needs to be replaced with a more trustworthy figure like Mr. Ellis.

Consider the following from this month:

  • On November 14, Mr. Ellis was on WOOD radio in Grand Rapids, criticizing Mr. Amash, when out of nowhere a clearly flustered Mr. Amash called in and ignited an impromptu on-air debate between the candidates (See Gongwer Michigan Report, November 27, 2013). On Tuesday, the Ellis campaign claimed Mr. Amash must have skipped part of a House subcommittee meeting to make the call. So far, Mr. Amash has not responded to that allegation.
  • Mr. Amash’s general reaction to Mr. Ellis’ campaign has been to label it “bizarre.”
  • Mr. Amash then taunted Mr. Ellis at the social media reaction to the two columns, posting a graphic showing how 2,600 had liked his post on Facebook compared to just 47 for Mr. Ellis, asserting the race has an “Enthusiasm Gap.”
  • Amash supporters have descended on Mr. Ellis’ Facebook page, rebutting his posts. They have called Mr. Ellis everything from a “fraud” to a “knighted NeoCon hit man.”

There are two schools of thought on this extraordinary engagement between a well-known incumbent like Mr. Amash and Mr. Ellis, who is making his first foray into partisan elected politics, not counting his time on the East Grand Rapids school board.

One view is Mr. Amash is making a grave error. He is elevating Mr. Ellis, giving him all kinds of free name recognition thanks to the media coverage of these skirmishes. The only way for Mr. Ellis to win is to draw Mr. Amash into a brawl that sullies Mr. Amash’s popularity and job approval, so Mr. Amash should take the high road and let Mr. Ellis flail away, this argument says.

The other view is that Mr. Ellis poses a mortal danger to Mr. Amash. He will have the money to buy name identification anyway later on, so better to engage him now and try to define him before he can define himself. One classic political axiom is that voters will believe an attack, truth or fiction, if it goes unanswered.

It’s pretty clear which view Mr. Amash takes.

Battle Of Wills On Campaign Finance Should Be Interesting
Posted: November, 25 2013 3:01 PM

Not long after majority Republicans in the Senate rebuked their fellow Republican, Secretary of State Ruth Johnson, by passing a bill to block her proposal requiring groups running issue ads about candidates to disclose their donors and spending, I asked Ms. Johnson’s spokesperson if she still planned to pursue the proposal.

The answer, he said, was yes.

A few hours later, I realized that was a really dumb question.

Ms. Johnson has been in elected politics for a quarter-century, and if there is one trait that stands out, it is what her supporters call determination and critics label stubbornness. Not only will she – of course – continue to pursue the rule, but the Senate’s move to poke a finger in her eye if anything will only deepen her resolve.

A quick recap: The morning of November 14, Ms. Johnson dropped a big surprise by proposing an administrative rule to force groups funding issue ads, which by not explicitly urging a vote for or against a candidate do not have to disclose donors and spending activity, to disclose that activity. Minutes later, the Senate Local Government and Elections Committee, which happened to have a campaign finance bill (SB 661*) up for consideration that morning, amended it to block Ms. Johnson’s proposal.

The full Senate then passed the bill, and it is now pending in the House.

But if anyone thinks the embarrassment will cow Ms. Johnson into pulling back, history suggests otherwise.

In 1997, while a member of the Oakland County Board of Commissioners, Ms. Johnson led a battle to force greater disclosure of the location of naturally occurring toxin arsenic in wells in her home turf of northwest Oakland County. She infuriated Oakland County Executive L. Brooks Patterson, but continued to press for more information about the situation despite his protestations that she was fear-mongering.

In the 2003-04 legislative term, Ms. Johnson, while a member of the House, took the lead as the head of a special subcommittee investigating wrongdoing at Oakland Schools, the county’s intermediate school district. She was granted the extraordinary request for the subcommittee to have subpoena power. Her critics groused that she was just looking for some free publicity on a hot-button issue in the Detroit area, but the subcommittee’s work led to several public acts reforming ISDs.

And last term, Ms. Johnson kept pushing for some type of mechanism to require voters to declare their U.S. citizenship at the polls, even after Governor Rick Snyder’s surprising veto of a bill that would have forced that issue. Eventually, Ms. Johnson supported Mr. Snyder’s alternative proposal.

Now Ms. Johnson has provoked a showdown with some of the most powerful figures in the Michigan Republican Party who are incensed about her proposal. She will need to persuade either the House or Mr. Snyder to back her and block SB 661* if she wants to go forward with the rule. Ms. Johnson could very well lose this battle, but if she does, she likely will go down swinging.

Smith, Tlaib Primary Shaping Up As Huge Battle
Posted: November, 21 2013 1:33 PM

Going into the 2014 election cycle, most of the focus with the August primary is on the Republicans, with several major contests developing between the tea party and establishment wings of the GOP.

But one of the showcase races on August 5, 2014, will come on the Democratic side where Rep. Rashida Tlaib takes on Sen. Virgil Smith for the Democratic nomination in the 4th Senate District that covers various parts of Detroit.

A photo posted by Senate Minority Leader Gretchen Whitmer of her campaigning with Sen. Virgil Smith.

This is causing some difficulty for Democrats. Ms. Tlaib has almost folk-hero status for her pugnacious charisma and penchant for lighting into Republicans. Mr. Smith is nowhere near as front-and-center as Ms. Tlaib in the heated legislative debates (few are), but he is well-liked by other Democrats. Unlike the Republican primaries, where some grassroots activists are upset with incumbents over their votes for certain bills, Mr. Smith has a voting record aligned with Democratic interests.

So the race will likely turn on leadership style and who campaigns harder.

An interesting dynamic to watch is endorsements. Will key unions sit the race out in deference to two figures they support or side with Mr. Smith out of loyalty to the incumbent? Or will they see Ms. Tlaib as too important of a figure to lose at the Capitol and back her?

Senate Minority Leader Gretchen Whitmer (D-East Lansing) has made it clear for a while that she is supporting her colleague, Mr. Smith. And that’s no surprise because legislative caucuses almost always rally behind their own members when they face a primary challenge.

But Ms. Whitmer also has made a major point of the need to increase the number of women in the Senate. Just four of the 38 senators are women, and Ms. Whitmer will likely be replaced by a man after the 2014 elections when she cannot seek re-election because of term limits.

Politics being politics, though, loyalty comes first. Ms. Whitmer reiterated her support today for Mr. Smith in a Facebook posting showing the two of them campaigning for Mr. Smith.

“Going into 2014, my goal is to grow our caucus and bring more Democratic voices to the table to join our existing members that will be starting their second terms,” Ms. Whitmer said. “Every member of the Senate Democratic Caucus has been a team player and worked tirelessly to earn a second term. I'm proud to stand behind Sen. Smith, along with the rest of my colleagues in their re-election efforts and I look forward to helping them win a second term in the Senate, whether they face a challenge during the primary election or general election next year.”

Epilogue On A State House Race That Involved A Former Teacher
Posted: November, 20 2013 1:44 PM

Rep. Kurt Heise (R-Plymouth) is back in the same spot he was a week ago – without a Democratic challenger in the 2014 elections.

Democrat Scott Craig, a teacher and member of the Northville school board, abruptly ended his bid to unseat Mr. Heise in the 20th House District a week after he jumped into the race. I had taken note of his candidacy last week in a blog post because he was a high school teacher of mine while at Birmingham Seaholm High School from 1990-94. He remains a teacher there.

And that is why, Patch.com reported, Mr. Craig changed his mind about running. He told Northville Patch that he realized he cannot afford to retire yet from his teaching job.

The 20th District leans Republican, and Mr. Heise already has won the seat twice, so Mr. Craig was facing an uphill fight to win the seat. Perhaps he will resurface in 2016 when Mr. Heise cannot seek re-election because of term limits and the combination of an open seat plus the more favorable electoral climate for Democrats in presidential election years makes it a more winnable race.

After posting the original blog on Facebook, several of my former classmates urged Mr. Craig on. But it looks like they will have to wait.

Mr. Craig… Soon To Be Rep. Craig?
Posted: November, 15 2013 11:55 AM

Rep. Kurt Heise (R-Plymouth) is a clear favorite for re-election in 2014 in the 20th House District. He has easily won his first two terms in office, made no notable mistakes and will benefit from a district that leans Republican in northwest Wayne County.

Still, I would suggest Mr. Heise not take his Democratic challenger lightly. Scott Craig has some solid background to make him a viable candidate: He’s a member of the Northville school board, a longtime local Democratic activist and a teacher, which is a nice asset in an area where its public schools are very popular.

But beyond those factors, I know Mr. Craig fairly well. For my four years at Birmingham Seaholm High School, he was in fact “Mr. Craig” who was one of several teachers that ran an innovative interdisciplinary program that combined social studies and writing. He continues to teach at Seaholm.

Let’s flash back: It’s my freshman year, in early 1991. “Gonna Make You Sweat (Everybody Dance Now)” was the No. 1 song in America, “Cheers” was the No. 1 show on television and John Engler was a couple months into his governorship in Michigan.

Seaholm at the time (and maybe still does) held an annual assembly that tended to focus on current events and policy with a guest speaker, who that year was Mr. Engler. And it came at a tense time for the nascent Engler administration.

At the time, Oakland County was still a Republican bulwark. But Mr. Engler was off to a rough start there. One of his top priorities was to address the chasm in per pupil funding under the school funding system in place at the time that relied on local property taxes.

The Birmingham Public Schools was among the best-funded districts in the state. And the discussions in Lansing about a “Robinhood”-type plan where richer districts would see some of their funds transferred to poorer districts had created a major uproar. I don’t know if that’s why Mr. Engler decided to come to Seaholm to deliver a speech on education, but what I do remember is that he gave a masterful speech that put much of the audience at ease in discussing his plans for education.

Then Mr. Engler came to the interdisciplinary class to speak to the 150-200 or so of us and answer questions.

Enter Mr. Craig, whose liberal political views were well-known. He stood to ask a question and there was a buzz among the students because we knew this was going to be good.

Mr. Craig critiqued Mr. Engler on several fronts, going after his proposed cuts to the arts, education funding policies and questioning his proposals to address the economy, which at the time was mired in recession.

I can’t recall Mr. Engler’s exact response, but he strongly rebutted each point and appeared annoyed to be getting blamed for the economy so soon after taking office.

Nearly 23 years later, Mr. Heise is well-positioned to win a third term. But if Mr. Craig is the same now as he was then, he is going to give Mr. Heise a fight.

So I Gather Brandenburg Prefers A Harley To Schwinn
Posted: November, 12 2013 1:35 PM

A bill up for consideration today in the Senate Transportation Committee that would allow bicyclists to point to their right to signal a right turn seemed innocuous enough.

Current law dictates bicyclists must signal a right turn with their left hand by pointing it to the left with their arm bent at the elbow so their hand faces up. That’s counterintuitive, but dates to hand-signals in motor vehicles before the invention of the electronic turn signal where drivers have to use their left arm to signal since the window is on their immediate left.

HB 4866* would allow bicyclists to simply point their right hand outward to signal a right turn.

Sen. Jack Brandenburg (R-Harrison Township), a member of the Senate Transportation Committee, which discussed the bill today, was not impressed. He seemed baffled that his fellow Harrison Township resident, Rep. Anthony Forlini, took the time to introduce the bill and said the people in his neighborhood would question the need for it.

But Mr. Brandenburg, known for his colorful way with words, put it in his own unique way.

“They’d make me beat my own ass,” he told John Lindenmayer of the League of Michigan Bicyclists, who was testifying before the committee in support of the bill.

Mr. Brandenburg, as the room filled with befuddled laughter, then told Mr. Lindenmayer, “No offense.”

“None taken,” was Mr. Lindenmayer’s response although his tone of voice suggested that might not be the case.

But then the mood turned more serious when four people with disabilities testified about how important the change would be to them

Mr. Brandenburg then became somber.

“I wish to apologize for my earlier remarks. I didn’t know that was an issue,” he said.

Court Of Claims Created In A Legislative Rush Too
Posted: November, 8 2013 1:51 PM

Now that everyone in the Capitol has a collective case of whiplash after watching majority Republicans in the Legislature rush passage of a bill making huge changes to how lawsuits against the state are handled, it seemed appropriate to look back at how the Court of Claims was created and if any those circumstances are similar to the present debate.

To recap, the Legislature completed action Wednesday on SB 652*, just 13 days after its introduction, that would strip the Ingham Circuit Court of its role as the Court of Claims hearing litigation against the state involving more than $1,000 and move that function to the Court of Appeals. The bill goes further, mandating that any litigation against the state, even if it under current law would go to the local circuit court, instead go to one of the four Court of Appeals judges selected for the Court of Claims by the Supreme Court.

The move has incensed Democrats, who see it as a power play to move cases to judges picked for the role by the Republican majority in the Supreme Court. What they tend to downplay is that by and large, the Ingham Circuit Court tends to rule in favor of Democratic and/or union interests.

Republicans have insisted the move has nothing to do with partisan politics and instead is a way to put judges in charge of state cases who serve a wider electorate than just Ingham County voters. Few believe that is the major reason. Republicans have loathed the Ingham circuit for years, going back to when former Governor John Engler blasted former Judge James Giddings as a “lunatic.”

Dusting off the Gongwer archives, there are some interesting similarities between now and May 1978 when the state established the Court of Claims via PA 164 of 1978.

Number one, it also was a rush job. The time it took from initial committee action to final legislative passage was 23 days. In that case, there was a clear reason, however. The deadline to file to run for judgeships was just a couple weeks away.

And major controversy erupted over the bill, but the controversy was not about the Court of Claims.

In fact, the creation of the Court of Claims was an afterthought in the legislative debate about the bill, which also made major changes in the number of circuit judges assigned to each court. The big fight that erupted was over whether to scrap plans for a new judge in the Muskegon Circuit Court. A pair of Democratic legislators who were running for their party’s U.S. Senate nomination that year clashed.

Then-Rep. Paul Rosenbaum of Battle Creek was trying to delete the new judge, contending it was a way for his U.S. Senate rival, then-Sen. Anthony Derezinski of Muskegon, to have a fallback plan in case he lost his U.S. Senate bid.

In the end, Mr. Derezinski prevailed. The Muskegon Circuit Court got the additional judge and the bill easily passed both legislative houses.

And the scrap had no effect on the U.S. Senate race. Mr. Derezinski finished fourth and Mr. Rosenbaum sixth out of six candidates for the Democratic nomination, which was won in a rout by U.S. Sen. Carl Levin (D-Detroit) in his first U.S. Senate bid.

Another Showdown Building Between Snyder, Beer And Wine Wholesalers
Posted: November, 7 2013 12:51 PM

One of the big fights happening at the Capitol is over whether bars and restaurants should be able to serve alcohol with logoed items. So if you buy a pint of Labatt Blue at the Peanut Barrel, the good folks at the Barrel could serve you your Blue in a glass with the Labatt logo and on a napkin with the logo as well.

Currently, rules set by the Liquor Control Commission prohibit this practice. But the LCC is moving to rescind this rule with the support of the state’s restaurants and bars.

But now a bill, SB 505*, has flown through the Senate to put the ban on logoed items into statute at the behest of the Michigan Beer and Wine Wholesalers Association, which contends its members will end up on the hook for the cost of the items, a charge refuted by the restaurants and others.

The Liquor Control Commission opposes the bill, which by extension means Governor Rick Snyder opposes the bill. But in case you thought bipartisanship was dead, fear not, because the two parties united in the Senate today to pass the bill 34-3.

The vote served as a reminder, in case anyone needed one, that the Beer and Wine Wholesalers remains hugely influential in the Legislature. The bill now lands in the House and, depending on what happens, it could set up a major conundrum for Mr. Snyder, whose administration has sharply clashed with the wholesalers association.

Last year, the Snyder administration called for several major changes in the state’s alcohol laws and policies that would have cleaved away some of the wholesalers’ power. Not surprisingly, the wholesalers mounted an all-out effort to fight the legislation, even allying itself with a neo-Prohibitionist group that seeks to curb alcohol consumption.

Yes, you read that right, the Beer and Wine Wholesalers, whose very existence is based on distributing alcohol to retailers, aligned itself with a group that sees alcohol consumption as inherently bad. As always, politics makes strange bedfellows.

But it is clear that the wholesalers clobbered the Snyder administration in the Legislature, preventing the proposals they most opposed from ever getting off the ground.

So now what will Mr. Snyder do if the bill passes the House with an overwhelming majority without major changes to placate his concerns? He could veto the bill and dare the Legislature to override him. The Senate would have more than enough votes for a two-thirds majority to do so, and we will see if the same happens in the House.

But the power of the wholesalers is such that it would not be a surprise at all if it persuaded the Republican-led Legislature to take the extraordinary step of overriding their fellow Republican, Mr. Snyder, even if it would be a big embarrassment to the governor.

So Mr. Snyder and his legislative team are going to have to ask themselves how much they dislike this bill and how far they are willing to go to stop it.

MML Responds To Truscott Proposal Linking Revenue Sharing To Mergers
Posted: November, 1 2013 4:17 PM

Last weekend, the president of the Michigan Municipal League offered an interesting response to a proposal floated last month by public relations expert John Truscott, who suggested linking reducing the number of cities, villages and townships to calls from local governments to provide $1 billion in new funding for revenue sharing.

Utica Mayor Jacqueline Noonan, the MML president, wrote a letter to the editor in Sunday’s Detroit Free Press, which published a guest column from Mr. Truscott the previous week.

Ms. Noonan, as expected, took issue with several of the arguments Mr. Truscott raised in his column. I won’t rehash them here because the main point of the blog I wrote last week was Mr. Truscott’s concept of marrying a reduction in the number of municipalities with the MML’s idea of raising the sales tax from 6 to 7 percent and putting all the new revenue toward revenue sharing.

And on that specific item, Ms. Noonan did not rule out the idea although clearly she was less than enamored with it, scoffing that it has been something discussed in Lansing for at least the past four decades.

“The Michigan Municipal League has long stood ready to discuss reducing the number of local governments,” Ms. Noonan wrote. “But far more important than the number of local governments is the quality of local governments.”

Critical to that quality, Ms. Noonan writes, is investing again in municipal governments and the critical services they provide, as well as making communities a desirable place to live, to make up for what she said has been $5 billion in revenue sharing cuts in the past decade.

So while Ms. Noonan panned several of the arguments Mr. Truscott made, especially the idea that local governments “rarely, if ever” coordinate on determining how to best serve a region, that does not exactly sound like a firm no to the bigger idea overall.

Fast Track Set For Bill Making Major Change To Michigan Courts
Posted: October, 30 2013 12:12 PM

Last Thursday, I got a call from a source who asked me if I had taken a look at SB 652*, which had been introduced earlier in the day.

I had not, so I checked it out, and my immediate reaction roughly rhymed with the words “Moldy bit.”

The bill would strip the Ingham Circuit Court of its status as the state’s Court of Claims, which gives it the critical role of serving as the trial court for all litigation against state government involving more than $1,000. Instead, the Supreme Court would appoint four judges from the Court of Appeals to serve as the new Court of Claims.

So what, right?

No, this is a big deal.

Many major cases have arisen against state government, especially since Governor Rick Snyder took office. Ingham County is a solidly Democratic county, and most of its circuit court judges either have a history of activity in Democratic causes or have tended to rule for unions and other Democratic interests with cases before the court.

The Court of Appeals has several judges from both the Democratic and Republican spheres, but the Supreme Court, which would make the appointments, has a 5-2 majority of justices nominated by the Republican Party. Maybe the Supreme Court would decide to appoint, say, two appeals judges named to the bench by a Democratic governor and two by a Republican governor, but that would be a surprise.

So this has all the makings a major shift in the philosophy of the judges on the Court of Claims.

And oh my (nod to longtime Detroit Free Press columnist Hugh McDiarmid Sr.), is this bill moving fast in the Republican-controlled Legislature. After its Thursday introduction, it won committee approval Tuesday and minutes ago passed the Senate on a party-line vote today.

It would be a surprise if the House did not move with dispatch to put this bill on Mr. Snyder’s desk.

Former Governor John Engler famously had a public feud with former Ingham Circuit Judge James Giddings, at one point ripping him as a “lunatic.” Mr. Engler happens to be in Detroit today. If someone wants to get a grin from the former governor, they might want to pass him the news about today’s action in the Senate.

Mich. Congressional Races Getting National Attention
Posted: October, 28 2013 5:01 PM

One of the major early priorities of Michigan Democratic Party Chair Lon Johnson clearly has been to put up a much bigger fight against Republican congressional incumbents than Democrats did in 2012.

Democrats made a big push in the 1st District again against U.S. Rep. Dan Benishek (R-Crystal Falls), but for the second election in a row, Democratic former state Rep. Gary McDowell came up short.

They recruited a strong challenger in the 3rd District, former state Rep./Judge Steve Pestka, but did not fund him, essentially forfeiting the seat to U.S. Rep. Justin Amash (R-Cascade Township). Democrats went bust in the 7th District and essentially conceded the seat to U.S. Rep. Tim Walberg (R-Tipton) on filing day with the failure to recruit a strong candidate.

In the 11th District, the party was left unprepared when U.S. Rep. Thaddeus McCotter was thrown off the ballot in a petition fraud scandal, leaving only gadfly Kerry Bentivolio as a Republican candidate in the GOP-leaning district. The Democratic candidate, Syed Taj, never got traction.

Now the party is making a more concerted effort to recruit candidates in hopes of toppling Mr. Benishek, Mr. Walberg and Mr. Bentivolio (or David Trott, if Mr. Trott ousts Mr. Bentivolio in the Republican primary).

And it clearly is not just idle talk among Democrats about going after these seats. None other than Stuart Rothenberg, the highly respect national political analyst, spent time interviewing the Democratic challengers to Mr. Benishek and Mr. Walberg – Jerry Cannon and Pam Byrnes, respectively.

Mr. Rothenberg wrote a column, “6 Democratic House Candidates With Plenty of Potential” for Roll Call today in which Mr. Cannon and Ms. Byrnes were two of the six candidates.

For both to get mention in the column suggests both races are firmly on the radar of Washington political strategists. Mr. Rothenberg’s view of the two candidates varied a bit.

Mr. Rothenberg called Mr. Cannon the least polished of the six, but said that could draw voters to him. Still, he didn’t seem terribly impressed with the chops of either Mr. Benishek or Mr. Cannon.

“If he wins, Cannon will be one of those backbenchers you’ll overlook unless he bolts his party on a key vote,” he wrote. “He probably wouldn’t be a strong challenger to a savvy, well-established incumbent – but neither of those qualities describes Benishek, which makes this a top-tier race worth watching.”

Mr. Rothenberg seemed more impressed with Ms. Byrnes, whom he described as refreshingly blunt.

“I liked her and expect her to give Walberg problems,” he said.

Ah, The Friday News Dump
Posted: October, 25 2013 6:13 PM

Today, the nonprofit fund affiliated with Attorney General Bill Schuette partook in that time-honored, beloved tactic of politicians and communications professionals: the Friday news dump.

In an email that arrived at 4:55 p.m., the On Duty for Michigan fund announced it would begin disclosing the names of donors who give money starting today. It is the same type of fund as the one affiliated with Governor Rick Snyder, the NERD fund, that has become a thorn in the governor’s side about a lack of transparency. We’ll have more on that story in tonight’s report for subscribers.

But it got me thinking about the many Friday news dumps this year. The idea is that by sending out something newsworthy Friday, preferably late in the day, it will get minimal attention. The Saturday newspapers, many of which are only available at newsstands, are generally the least read newspaper of the week. People head out for the evening on Friday and are less apt to watch the local news.

Thankfully, we know Gongwer subscribers read EVERY SINGLE WORD of what we publish and never miss an issue, so this tactic will not foil them (wink wink).

So in honor of today’s Friday afternoon news dump, here is a sampling of similar stories from this year:

  • October 11: Treasurer Andy Dillon announces his resignation in the wake of a series of personal problems;

Dedication Of Walkway To Kelley Seems Fitting
Posted: October, 24 2013 4:25 PM

There are not a lot of moments in Michigan politics when everyone unanimously feels good about something, but yesterday’s dedication of the walkway connecting the Capitol to the Hall of Justice, where most of the state office buildings sit, to longtime former Attorney General Frank Kelley was one of them.

Who else could have caused Attorney General Bill Schuette and Senate Minority Leader Gretchen Whitmer, who do not exactly think highly of each other and might face off for high office in the coming years, to share a stage and for a moment put the issues of the day to the side?

Mr. Kelley looked as spry as ever Wednesday at the dedication. While he has been out of office for almost 15 years following a record-setting tenure from 1961-99, he has remained highly active, co-founding the Kelley Cawthorne lobbying firm and continuing to serve it as a senior consultant.

The walk through the Capitol Complex is not exactly picturesque. There’s an awful lot of cement, both from the buildings and the walkway. But the dedication of it to Mr. Kelley adds some heft, and the marker designating it as such a nice point of interest for those exploring the area.

Here’s a quick stroll through Mr. Kelley’s official portraits during his time in office.

An Interesting Suggestion On Addressing Major Local Government Issues
Posted: October, 23 2013 3:42 PM

Local government officials have urged reform in their funding model for years as a combination of state revenue sharing cuts and the plummeting of property tax revenues associated with the burst of the housing bubble forcing them to trim their workforce, especially in public safety. State officials, Democratic and Republican, have talked for years about the need for local governments to consolidate functions.

John Truscott, the Republican public relations expert at the Truscott Rossman firm, floated an interesting proposal Sunday to bring those two strains of thought together.

In a column for the Detroit Free Press, Mr. Truscott said the recent proposal from the Michigan Municipal League to increase the sales tax to stabilize local government funding offers an opportunity for a discussion about reducing the number of local governments in Michigan (about 2,700 when counting cities, villages, township and other taxing jurisdictions like library districts).

“Some local governments certainly need additional funds to provide necessary services, but pouring more money into the current system will only serve to feed an insatiable appetite that will never be satisfied,” he wrote. “Before any discussion on new revenue begins, the difficult decisions of making government more efficient and effective must take place. This includes tough talk about reducing the number of governmental units.”

Governor Rick Snyder has shied away from talk of merging or reducing the number of local governments, preferring instead to see local governments, for example, share a fire department or an assessor. There are two reasons: One, Michigan residents historically are protective of their communities from merger. Two, the process for mergers in Michigan is Byzantine and difficult (just ask the folks in Saugatuck and Douglas trying to pull off a merger of the two artsy cities on the November 5 ballot).

Still, this has the makings of some interesting fodder.

Would Michigan voters be willing to back the MML’s proposal to raise the sales tax from 6 to 7 percent with the $1 billion in new revenue entirely dedicated to local governments, and see the (presumably) reduced police and fire response times, better infrastructure and quality of life improvements if it meant Mr. Truscott’s idea of merging with the neighboring municipality? Is that something that appeals to Mr. Snyder and members of the Legislature? Would city, village and township officials be willing in some cases to lose their jobs in exchange for the influx of cash to improve services?

In some areas, the move could make some sense. In the southeastern corner of Oakland County, there are 10 municipalities within 38 square miles, a jigsaw puzzle of boundaries haphazardly set in the early 20th century. I once interviewed the Berkley city manager about this subject and even he acknowledged the boundaries led to a less-than-efficient model of service delivery.

Of course, bigger is not always better. Detroit began as a fraction of the size it is now, but gradually annexed territory from surrounding townships until eventually reaching its current configuration. Few would call that a success story given the city’s many problems.

Voters in Saugatuck and Douglas will soon give us some fresh data on where the public stands on these questions. In the meantime, Mr. Truscott has given everyone something to ponder.

OK, Who’s ‘Fire Guy’ At The Romney Building?
Posted: October, 18 2013 4:16 PM

If the workers at the Romney Building, which houses the offices of Governor Rick Snyder, are anything like those from the television show at “The Office,” then someone there has had a miserable last 30 hours.

Thursday morning, there was a “toaster malfunction” – and let’s all tip our cap to Department of Technology, Management and Budget spokesperson Kurt Weiss for using that term – that prompted a rare evacuation of the building. Thankfully, no fire occurred and everyone was okay.

But whoever was responsible for the offending toast, bagel or Pop-Tart is hopefully getting the business from his or her co-workers, much as Ryan from “The Office” did after a similar incident on the show that led to his colleagues dubbing him “Fire Guy.”

It also led to this brilliant spoof of Billy Joel’s “We Didn’t Start the Fire” by the show’s immortal Dwight K. Schrute.

Suddenly, Judge’s Thoughts On Gay Marriage Case Seem In Doubt
Posted: October, 16 2013 4:13 PM

For some time, supporters of ending Michigan’s ban on same-sex couples marrying saw many positive signs in how U.S. District Judge Bernard Friedman would rule in the DeBoer v. Snyder case in which a lesbian Hazel Park couple has challenged the state’s law preventing them from marrying.

For one, Mr. Friedman encouraged the couple to broaden their case beyond their initial challenge to the Michigan Adoption Code’s prohibition on same-sex couples jointly adopting children to the bigger issue of same-sex marriage. That suggested he was interested in issuing a broader ruling.

Then in March of this year, Mr. Friedman decided to stay all action in the case while awaiting a U.S. Supreme Court ruling on two gay marriage cases before it. In June, the court struck down the federal Defense of Marriage Act limiting federal recognition of marriages to one man and one woman as a violation of the Equal Protection Clause of the U.S. Constitution. It declined to hear an appeal on a lower court ruling striking down California’s ban on same-sex marriage, citing a lack of standing.

Since then, however, Mr. Friedman has slowed the pace of the DeBoer case instead of moving swiftly to follow the high court’s lead.

In July, Mr. Friedman called for a trial in the case. But he later changed his mind, calling for arguments on motions for summary disposition, suggesting he was ready to rule in the near future. That hearing is what occurred today.

Going into today, there was some hope in the LGBT community that Mr. Friedman would issue a ruling the same day. Gay and lesbian couples filed into several county clerk offices in hopes of obtaining a marriage license if the ruling went their way. A same-day ruling seemed somewhat unlikely given the magnitude of the case, and a written ruling in the near future, one way or the other, seemed more likely.

And given Mr. Friedman’s handling of the case, the betting money has been he would strike down Michigan’s same-sex marriage ban.

But Mr. Friedman, who was appointed to the bench by President Ronald Reagan, pulled a surprise, scheduling a February 25 trial to resolve factual issues.

Mr. Friedman has had this case for 13 months, and most would argue it is pretty simple, regardless of where you stand on the issue. That Mr. Friedman, who clearly seemed conflicted at today’s hearing, now sees a trial as necessary to resolve factual issues pretty much crushes the idea that he was leaning toward striking down Michigan’s gay marriage ban.

It does not mean he is now leaning toward upholding it, but after today’s hearing, who knows where he is heading.

House Dems’ Tax-O-Meter Recalls Trash-O-Meter
Posted: October, 15 2013 3:46 PM

Seeing the House Democrats come up this week with something called the Tax-O-Meter to tally how much more in taxes individuals are paying as a result of Governor Rick Snyder’s and the Republican-led Legislature’s 2011 tax overhaul brings to mind a similar move the caucus made 10 years ago: the Trash-O-Meter.

At the time, a burgeoning political issue in Michigan was the importation by Michigan landfills of garbage from outside the state, especially Toronto. House Democrats came up with the Trash-O-Meter to tally each ton of trash coming into the state from Canada, took it around Michigan and hectored the Republicans to no end on the issue. Every chance they could, Democrats tried to wedge the issue into whatever bill was on the House floor through amendments and speeches.

About 14 months after House Democrats unveiled it, the Legislature and then-Governor Jennifer Granholm agreed to legislation designed to curb out-of-state trash importation. The Trash-O-Meter had clearly gotten under the skin of the then-speaker of the House, Rick Johnson.

"It's my hope that the so-called trash-o-meter, or whatever that thing is called, ends up in a landfill," he said after the House had completed work on the legislation.

Now the question is can today’s House Democrats create enough of a push on the tax issues to prompt some type of action like their brethren did 10 years ago.

An Epilogue On The Dispute About Job Creation At The MEDC
Posted: October, 14 2013 5:05 PM

Michigan Economic Development Corporation CEO Michael Finney recently defended his agency from critical news media coverage it received after an audit showed the MEDC had reported inaccurate figures about the number of jobs created through the 21st Century Jobs Trust Fund.

The audit showed that the MEDC had reported to the Legislature that one of the funds in the program had 75 percent of fund recipients meet their job creation targets when in fact just 19 percent had done so. Still, Mr. Finney pushed back in a media counteroffensive, insisting his staff had not inflated jobs numbers, saying the 19 percent was largely the result of one firm filing for bankruptcy and noting the audit described the MEDC’s management of the fund as effective.

In a letter to the editor in the Detroit Free Press and at a hearing before skeptical lawmakers, Mr. Finney took pains to note the program was created during the administration of former Governor Jennifer Granholm. He did not mention Ms. Granholm’s name, but there was no mistaking whom he meant when he said “different administration.”

But Treasurer Andy Dillon’s testimony under oath, as part of the Detroit bankruptcy case, unearthed an uncomfortable development Friday in Mr. Finney’s attempt to hang problems stemming from the 21st Century Jobs Fund on Ms. Granholm. It turns out Mr. Dillon first met Mr. Snyder as Mr. Dillon was working with now-U.S. Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Zeeland), then a state rep, on the 21st Century Jobs Fund legislation.

“I drove to Ann Arbor to meet him because Governor Granholm at the time had announced the 21st Century Jobs Fund plan, I had a private equity background, but not a venture capital background and his name came to me as someone who understood venture capital,” Mr. Dillon said, according to a draft transcript of the deposition. “I asked for a meeting, drove to Ann Arbor, we met for (a) half-hour to an hour, and I incorporated his thoughts and ideas into the 21st century jobs plans.”

Now, a 30- to 60-minute meeting is not the same as developing and implementing the program, as the Granholm administration did.

Still, Mr. Dillon’s mini-revelation complicates the message Mr. Finney has been emphasizing and serves as a reminder that a top Snyder administration official (albeit one who will soon depart), Mr. Dillon, was instrumental in putting that program together.

Kilpatrick, Verlander And An Odd Bit Of Symmetry
Posted: October, 11 2013 2:55 PM

Watching Detroit Tigers pitcher Justin Verlander take a perfect game into the 6th inning and a no-hitter into the 7th in last night’s series-clinching victory over the Oakland A’s, I was reminded of one of the most disappointing moments that has happened to me as a sports fan.

About 12 hours earlier, former Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick was sentenced to 28 years in a federal prison. Mr. Kilpatrick, who once dazzled Lansing as an up-and-coming state representative from 1997-2001, could remain in prison into his 70s, his apparently innate need to use the people’s government to enrich himself having destroyed his life.

A little more than six years ago, I was covering Wayne County government for the Detroit Free Press. I don’t remember exactly how I got involved in the story, but an interesting document was filed on June 12, 2007, in the U.S. District Court in Detroit in the criminal case against Jon Rutherford, the owner of a homeless shelter in Highland Park, that dealt with allegations Mr. Rutherford had illegally used the homeless shelter as a piggy bank for political causes, especially Team Kilpatrick.

Years later, Mr. Rutherford would plead guilty and ultimately testify against Mr. Kilpatrick as part of the corruption case against the former mayor. The very first whiff of corruption surrounding Mr. Kilpatrick occurred in 2001 when the Free Press reported that Mr. Rutherford had given Mr. Kilpatrick’s nonprofit fund $50,000 and weeks later Mr. Kilpatrick recommended (while a mayoral candidate and state rep) that the local mental health agency receive a $22.7 million contract, which Mr. Rutherford received.

Mr. Rutherford eventually, long after that 2007 court filing, would testify that he showered Mr. Kilpatrick and his father, Bernard, with hundreds of thousands of dollars.

Today, none of this sounds surprising. But when that document surfaced in the U.S. District Court in 2007 indicating that the Internal Revenue Service was clearly investigating and showing that it was looking closely at Bernard Kilpatrick, it was one of the (I can’t remember if it was the) first major clues the feds’ investigation was trending toward the mayor, who at that point was on top of the world.

So I and the Free Press’ then-federal courts reporter, the outstanding David Ashenfelter, began working the story. Meanwhile, I had a ticket to that night’s Tigers game against the Brewers with JV on the mound.

Time was moving quickly, but the editors wanted the story for the front page, and I realized I was going to miss at least the beginning of the game. I notified my friends I would be late.

No big deal, I’ll get there by the 3rd or 4th inning, I thought.

But Verlander was mowing down the Brewers, allowing no hits, the game was moving fast and we were still tinkering with the story. The 5th, 6th and 7th innings flew by and I realized I was not going to make it to Comerica Park. The only question now was would Verlander complete the first no-hitter by a Tiger since 1984 and the first one at home since 1952.

The game was on television in the newsroom, and everyone else was cheering, but I was silently freaking out at what I was on the verge of missing. Finally, Verlander got J.J. Hardy to fly out to right, he had his no-hitter and everyone went crazy. I don’t remember exactly what I said or did, but if I had spoken, it probably would have involved the same word A’s pitcher Grant Balfour and Tigers DH Victor Martinez lovingly shouted at each other during a minor skirmish in game 3 of this year’s series.

The coup de grace was that the editors, rightfully of course, took Verlander’s no-hitter to the front page. Our story was bumped to the B section.

As Verlander was turning the A’s into mincemeat last night, the only thing ultimately that mattered was the Tigers winning and moving on to the American League Championship Series. But I have to admit, I was hoping he would get the no-hitter.

What a bizarre piece of symmetry that would have been hours after authorities marched Mr. Kilpatrick off to prison.

Breaking Down Ellis Vs. Amash
Posted: October, 8 2013 12:19 PM

The national attention on the nascent battle for the Republican nomination in the 3rd U.S. House District between challenger Brian Ellis of East Grand Rapids and U.S. Rep. Justin Amash of Cascade Township already has begun, and 10 months from the primary, it almost surely will be the showcase race in Michigan to watch on August 5, 2014.

With Mr. Ellis announcing his bid today – setting up a battle between the west Michigan Republican establishment, most of which will side with Mr. Ellis, and the liberty/tea party wings of the party, which adore Mr. Amash – now seemed a good time to size up the initial contours of the race.

NAME RECOGNITION: Advantage, Mr. Amash. He has not held elected office long, serving in Congress since 2011 after a two-year stint in the Michigan House, but Mr. Amash is very well known as a result of his star status in the liberty/tea party movements, town halls and ubiquitous social media presence. Mr. Ellis has served for years on the East Grand Rapids school board, but that is, uh, slightly less high profile.

MONEY: That’s the big question. Mr. Ellis is an investment banker. It’s not much of a reach to conclude he has major connections to wealthy potential donors who could easily fund a robust campaign. But this is Mr. Ellis’ first move on a major political stage, so he will have to prove he can raise the money. Mr. Amash is not a strong fundraiser, historically. In his 2010 Republican primary win for the seat, the Club for Growth spent heavily on him. Super political action committees aligned with the Ron/Rand Paul movement also surely will spend lavishly to defend Mr. Amash.

ISSUES: Bank on this: Team Amash is going to comb through every vote cast by the East Grand Rapids school board during Mr. Ellis’ tenure. If Mr. Ellis missed any votes, Mr. Amash is going to rub that in his face. That’s a tactic Mr. Amash has used, with great success, to fluster opponents and hurt them with voters when contrasting it with his record of never missing a vote. However, Mr. Ellis already is pushing hard on Mr. Amash’s penchant for voting “present” on bills he has yet to read, saying Mr. Amash broke with conservative principles in refusing to vote yes on some bread-and-butter conservative legislation.

ENDORSEMENTS: Big question No. 2. In 2012, Right to Life of Michigan did not endorse Mr. Amash, who aligns with the organization’s philosophy, but voted present instead of yes on a couple of its legislative priorities. An endorsement of Mr. Ellis in west Michigan, where the organization’s power in Republican primaries is massive, would be huge and put Mr. Amash in serious jeopardy of losing. The endorsement of the Grand Rapids Chamber of Commerce also will be closely watched. Then there’s Mr. Amash’s trump card – Dick and Betsy DeVos, who enthusiastically endorsed him in 2010 and provided invaluable backing. Mr. Amash is longtime friends with one of the DeVoses’ now-adult children, so there is a personal relationship. But would they do as much to help in 2014 as they did in 2010?

INTANGIBLES: Mr. Amash has won three tough elections the last three cycles, first coming from nowhere to win the Republican primary in the 72nd House District in 2008, then topping a sitting state senator and a favorite of the business establishment in the 2010 3rd U.S. House District GOP primary and beating back a credible Democratic challenger in 2012. He knows the drill while Mr. Ellis is entering his first big race as a candidate. Mr. Ellis also has to build a campaign from scratch while Mr. Amash potentially could see a flood of volunteers from around the country help him thanks to the liberty movement.

Yet there has been a persistent undercurrent in west Michigan that Mr. Amash’s style and politics fails to fit with the west Michigan conservatism that elected people like Gerald Ford, Paul Henry and Vern Ehlers to this seat and that his ideological approach fails to benefit the area.

LeDuff Vs. Snyder
Posted: October, 4 2013 11:01 AM

I was walking back to the office earlier this week and as I approached the Romney Building, which houses the offices of the governor, I saw an unfamiliar sight: WJBK Fox 2 News gonzo reporter Charlie LeDuff standing outside the building, talking on the phone, with a videographer nearby.

Usually, Mr. LeDuff is busy breaking stories about some of the Detroit area’s troubled elected officials, like scandal-plagued Wayne County Executive Robert Ficano or Wayne Circuit Judge Wade Harper McCree, the latter of whom is almost certainly going to get kicked off the bench thanks to Mr. LeDuff’s enterprising reporting. Or Mr. LeDuff is entertaining the masses by golfing his way across Detroit or demonstrating that a middle school student has more maturity than convicted ex-Detroit City Councilmember Monica Conyers.

But seeing Mr. LeDuff camped outside the Romney Building, I thought about what the reaction might have been like inside Mr. Snyder’s communications office at the thought of getting the LeDuff treatment. The scene in “Airplane!” when stewardess Elaine Dickinson asks if anyone on board can fly an airplane, prompting the passengers to break into a hilarious panic, came to mind.

Mr. LeDuff was in town to do a piece on Mr. Snyder’s controversial nonprofit fund, the NERD fund, which pays the salary of top aide, Rich Baird, as well as try to figure out more about who Mr. Baird is. Watching the piece is worth your time alone for when Mr. LeDuff interviews Rep. Roger Victory (R-Hudsonville) about Mr. Baird.

Eventually, after some typical LeDuff hijinks, he gets some face-time with Mr. Snyder, who looks uncharacteristically uncomfortable, and probably with good reason. But Mr. LeDuff played it straight with the governor (at least in the part that was aired), and by the end, a look of relief seems to cross Mr. Snyder’s face after he explained, as he has several times, that he is considering what to do with the fund.

But as Mr. LeDuff closed his piece from the studio, he seemed to have the impression that Mr. Snyder plans to disclose donors to the fund, past, present and future and promised viewers to report back when Mr. Snyder did so.

Hmmm. Mr. Snyder has said he may disclose future donors, but has staunchly resisting unmasking those who donated in the past.

I think Mr. LeDuff might be making another trip up I-96.

Fox 2 News Headlines

One Week Until Deposition Day For Snyder
Posted: October, 2 2013 3:21 PM

One week from today, Governor Rick Snyder will do something no Michigan governor is known to have done: sit for a deposition where he will testify under oath about the decisions, actions and process that led to him authorizing the city of Detroit to file for bankruptcy.

So far, the Detroit bankruptcy has mostly proven a political plus for Mr. Snyder, based on polls showing voters outside the city backing the move. Setting aside the question of whether it was the right move financially, the politics of the decision still contain considerable peril, and October 9 is probably the point of maximum peril.

Mr. Snyder’s arch political enemies, the unions, will do the questioning through their attorneys. While they must stick to questions relevant to the case at hand and hope to get answers that will achieve their goal of preventing the bankruptcy from going forward, there is no doubt that they would love in the process for the governor to say something damaging politically or even say something that could raise questions of perjury.

In a relative rarity, the deposition will be videotaped. Douglas Bernstein, the managing partner of Plunkett Cooney’s Banking, Bankruptcy and Creditors’ Rights Practice Group, said depositions are often recorded when a witness may not be available to appear at a subsequent hearing or trial to testify. Mr. Snyder, as the governor, certainly falls into that group.

Typically, attendance at the deposition is limited to the parties and their attorneys.

But it seems a near certainty that Mr. Snyder’s testimony, and that of Treasurer Andy Dillon and top Snyder aide Rich Baird, will eventually become public. Depositions under federal rules do not become part of the court record, but if either side filed a motion, it could attach part of the transcript to help justify the motion, Mr. Bernstein said.

And any member of the public could order a transcript or a copy of the video if willing to pay for it, he said.

Mr. Bernstein did question whether U.S. Bankruptcy Judge Steven Rhodes might draw the line at someone trying to use the video recording of the deposition for political purposes, i.e. if it showed up in a television advertisement as the 2014 gubernatorial campaign heats up next year.

“I would suspect that if somebody tried to get a copy and use it for political purposes, that it would not be pleasant for whoever did that,” he said. “That’s not the intended purpose of a deposition.”

Now, the very possibility of the unions managing to obtain something politically juicy at the deposition might be remote. Mr. Snyder is an attorney; he is famously adept at avoiding landmines when questioned by reporters and generally seems unfazed at the idea of discussing under oath how his administration reached the decision to put Detroit into bankruptcy.

Still, this is big-time pressure Mr. Snyder faces once he raises his hand and swears to tell the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth with AFSCME and AFL-CIO attorneys doing the questioning.

Sen. Warren Channels Vice President Garner
Posted: September, 27 2013 4:49 PM

I never expected to put Sen. Rebekah Warren’s and former Vice President John Nance Garner’s names in the same sentence, but thanks to some candor today from Ms. Warren that unlikely comparison is possible.

Ms. Warren (D-Ann Arbor) appeared on Michigan Public Television’s “Off the Record” when host Tim Skubick asked her about the idea of running for lieutenant governor in 2014 should the Democratic gubernatorial candidate ask her to join the ticket. I expected the usual dodges most politicians offer when asked such a question – “I’m focused on my current job” or “that’s a hypothetical” – but instead Ms. Warren did not mince words.

“I look at the lieutenant governor spot as somewhat of a career ending, no path kind of job,” she said. “I don’t really see that as a good move for me.”

The connection to Mr. Garner, vice president from 1933-41? He famously said that the vice presidency, the federal equivalent of the lieutenant governor post, was not worth a bucket of warm piss (or spit, depending on the source).

Ms. Warren asked when was the last time a lieutenant governor went on to higher office. The answer? A long time ago – in 1969 when Lt. Governor William Milliken rose to the governorship after Governor George Romney resigned to join the Nixon administration.

One could argue that Mr. Milliken’s lieutenant governor in his first and third terms, Jim Brickley, did so too. Although he lost a 1982 bid for governor, he eventually served on the Michigan Supreme Court. For others, like Lt. Governors Jim Damman, Martha Griffiths, Connie Binsfeld, Dick Posthumus and John Cherry, the LG spot did signify the high-water mark of their political careers.

Ms. Warren said she loves her current work.

“I love being in direct representative government,” she said. “Part of what I get to do every single day is help people.”

MacMaster Vs. Schmidt Setting Up As A Doozy
Posted: September, 26 2013 3:34 PM

A little more than 10 months before the August primary, one race is emerging as the single biggest proxy battle in the ongoing tension within the Republican primary between longtime activists and newer tea party ones – the Republican primary in the 37th Senate District in northern Michigan.

Rep. Greg MacMaster (R-Kewadin) and Rep. Wayne Schmidt (R-Traverse City) are running and already Republicans are talking about what a monster race it will be with Mr. MacMaster likely to have tea party backing and Mr. Schmidt stronger backing among establishment Republicans.

The latest wrinkle came just minutes ago when the House voted on HCR 11*, which allows implementation of the Common Core State Standards in education. Those in the tea party sphere are in a fury about the standards, seeing them as a kind of national takeover of curriculum (they come from the National Governors Association, the group of the nation’s governors, not the federal government).

Some of the most outspoken conservative voices on education, however, strongly favor the standards.

Mr. Schmidt voted yes on the resolution, Mr. MacMaster voted no.

This comes a couple weeks after Mr. Schmidt voted a second time for Medicaid expansion. Mr. MacMaster, who voted for Medicaid expansion when it first cleared the House, voted no the second time.

Another issue surely to hang over the race is road funding. Mr. Schmidt has led the House Republican effort to raise more money for roads. It is hard to envision Mr. MacMaster not using that against him.

The 37th District currently is held by Sen. Howard Walker (R-Traverse City), who decided not to seek re-election. Establishment vs. tea party emotions are running high after the recent incident where a tea party activist needled Mr. Walker about “weak Republicans” voting for Medicaid expansion (Mr. Walker had just voted for that bill), prompting the usually reserved Mr. Walker to tell the activist “screw you” for insulting him.

Both candidates can claim some advantages. Mr. Schmidt has more wealthy donors in his area, has his whole House district in the Senate district unlike Mr. MacMaster and is well-known in the main media market of Traverse City. Mr. MacMaster can run to the right, never a bad place to be in a Republican primary, and is well-known from his days as an on-air meteorologist on northwest Michigan television network news.

By the time it’s over, the race could make the recent dust-up involving Mr. Walker seem tame.

A Chance For Lions Fan Legislators To Talk Smack
Posted: September, 24 2013 2:12 PM

In the nearly nine years Sen. Tom Casperson (R-Escanaba) has served in the Legislature, he as a Green Bay Packers fan has had the chance to talk quite a bit of trash about his team’s success compared to the travails of the downstate Detroit Lions.

His hometown just 111 miles north-northeast of the Packers’ stadium, Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Mr. Casperson has seen his Packers go 77-51 in the eight full seasons that have taken place while he has served in the Legislature, along with five playoff appearances. The Packers’ victory in Super Bowl XLV came in 2010 when he was not serving at the Capitol. Still, the Packers have been outstanding, and Mr. Casperson has enjoyed reminding everyone about it.

The Lions have, uh, not been as successful during those years (2003-08, 2011-12), going 40-88 with one playoff appearance.

But three games into the 2013 NFL season, the Lions are 2-1, with their first-ever victory in Washington, while the Packers are 1-2.

That brings us to a completely unrelated topic at today’s meeting of the Senate Transportation Committee, which Mr. Casperson chairs. Sen. Morris Hood III (D-Detroit) expressed concern that no one involved with the bill in front of the committee had talked about the legislation with him prior to the meeting.

But then Mr. Hood saw his opportunity and said, “We could talk about the Lions and the Packers and the records.”

A chagrined Mr. Casperson responded, “We need to move to the next subject.”

If, and it is an almost comical if to ponder, the Lions somehow end their 22-game losing streak in Wisconsin this year when the two teams meet October 6, Mr. Casperson could be in for a rough week at the Capitol.

Rating The Mackinac Speeches From Thune, Walker, Jindal, Paul
Posted: September, 22 2013 11:17 AM

MACKINAC ISLAND – Republican attendees at the weekend’s Mackinac Republican Leadership Conference got a good dose of what four potential 2016 GOP presidential candidates have to offer with speeches from South Dakota U.S. Sen. John Thune, Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal and Kentucky U.S. Sen. Rand Paul.

THUNE: Mr. Thune’s Friday night speech wandered at times. He was at his best when telling his family story of how they immigrated to the United States and arrived in South Dakota and discussing how amazed his grandfather would be to see a grandson in the U.S. Senate. He offered some alternatives for health care to the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. And Mr. Thune delivered the standard denunciation of President Barack Obama. He also gave a shout-out to Republican senatorial candidate Terri Land.

But Mr. Thune never really seemed to get the room going. He also gets docked a few points for pronouncing Mecosta County “Mecotta County” although at least he had the good sense to ask as soon as he said it if he pronounced it right. It also felt awkward when he referred to Mackinac Island as sitting at the confluence of lakes Huron, Michigan and Superior. I guess it needs to be said – Mackinac Island is in Lake Huron although one could get away with saying it sits at the confluence of lakes Huron and Michigan given how close it is to the Mackinac Bridge. The channel connecting Lake Superior to Lake Huron is about 80 miles to the east.

WALKER: For the first part of Mr. Walker’s speech, he was on a roll and he had the crowd really fired up. Mr. Walker, thanks to his state’s proximity to Michigan, could inject lots of local flair, mentioning the University of Wisconsin’s rivalries with the University of Michigan and Michigan State University in sports. He thanked all the Michigan Republicans who helped him withstand a recall attempt. And as a hero in Republican circles for taking on unions in Wisconsin, he had the crowd roaring when he discussed how he framed the recall as a question of who do voters want in charge, union bosses or taxpayers.

But it felt like Mr. Walker went on too long. The first 10-15 minutes was so taut. The last 10-15 minutes was not weak, but suffered from duration and the crowd, awaiting the arrival of lunch once he finished his speech, seemed to flatten a bit.

JINDAL: Mr. Jindal clearly won the ear test. He had the crowd surging with applause, laughs and cheers throughout. He heavily tailored his message to education and the importance of school choice. He bashed teachers unions, telling anecdotes of them opposing change. He got some laughs by retelling the story of how his father cold called through the Yellow Pages to find a job after immigrating to the United States. The speech was taut and never felt long even though attendees were awaiting their dinners.

PAUL: Mr. Paul had the most fans at the conference, as seen in his victory in the Decider Strategies/Gongwer News Service straw poll of possible 2016 presidential candidates, and he got a ton of applause. Mr. Paul has more of an easy-breezy style. Instead of speaking at the lectern, he picked up the microphone and moved around on the stage. He retold Jimmy Kimmel jokes. He mounted a defense of the sequester. And he riffed through some silly spending items in the federal budget.

Speaking of which, if Mr. Paul does run, and North Dakota’s nominating caucus or primary matters, he is going to have to answer for his mocking of Fargo, North Dakota, receiving $8 million in homeland security funds. "If the terrorists get to Fargo, we might as well surrender," he said.

Mr. Paul’s speech was a bit all over the place, but he seemed to have the crowd with him the whole time although the applause was a little more hesitant when he called for the end of mandatory-minimum drug sentences.

Just One Glitch In Snyder Pseudo-Campaign Declaration
Posted: September, 21 2013 11:04 AM

MACKINAC ISLAND – Governor Rick Snyder’s near announcement of his plan to run for re-election was almost seamless.

Mr. Snyder delivered probably the best political speech of his career, departing from his standard talking points about the work of his administration, testing out some new lines, and showing some genuine fire. There was some speculation about how the conservative crowd would greet Mr. Snyder on the heels of his controversial support of Medicaid expansion, but the crowd roared for Mr. Snyder and chanted “four more years.”

Mr. Snyder’s campaign committee also debuted a new video from media guru Fred Davis, the man behind Mr. Snyder’s famous Super Bowl ad in 2010 that labeled Mr. Snyder “one tough nerd.” The new video, “One Successful Nerd,” is slickly done and packages Mr. Snyder’s record well.

But, and you knew that was coming, there was one real shortcoming with the video. It opened with the first few seconds of the “One Tough Nerd” ad that paraded images of several Michigan politicians with the narrator condemning them as “career politicians.”

Among those figures criticized in the ad besides the usual Democratic targets like former Governor Jennifer Granholm and convicted ex-Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick were two Republicans – former Attorney General Mike Cox and Oakland Sheriff Mike Bouchard, two of Mr. Snyder’s 2010 rivals – and Treasurer Andy Dillon, then the Democratic House speaker running for governor.

The goal of running the clip clearly was to show Mr. Snyder declaring “It’s time for a nerd” after the narrator says Michigan has tried career politicians and happy talk as a reminder of his original message. But in the process, it pokes two fellow Republicans and knocks one of the key members of Mr. Snyder’s administration.

A Different Atmosphere As GOP Mackinac Conference Opens
Posted: September, 20 2013 3:39 PM

MACKINAC ISLAND – It’s no secret that the Michigan Republican Party is undergoing an intraparty battle over its future, and that was on display before even arriving at the party’s biennial Mackinac Republican Leadership Conference.

While flipping radio stations on the drive north from Lansing, I came across the “Your Defending Fathers” radio show that is a tea party staple in northern Michigan and generally reviled by establishment Republicans for the invective it often displays toward them.

One of the subjects du jour are comments made by longtime (establishment) Republican strategist Greg McNeilly in today’s Detroit News (similar to comments he also made this week in Gongwer News Service) mocking tea party Republicans for failing to deliver on a promise to produce a primary challenger to Governor Rick Snyder on the first day of the Mackinac conference.

Mr. McNeilly called them “bloviating magpies” too “cowardly” to fight real Republicans on the electoral battlefield.

What was notable about the discussion on the radio show is that they seemed to have no idea who Mr. McNeilly is.

Mr. McNeilly is the longtime political staffer for Betsy and Dick DeVos, who have been instrumental figures in the Michigan Republican Party for decades, directing millions of their wealth into it. They mocked him as a johnny-come-lately to the right-to-work movement, asserting it was the tea party that forced the Legislature and Governor Rick Snyder to pass those laws last year.

In fact, there probably was no one person who did more to make right-to-work law than Mr. DeVos. And where Mr. DeVos goes, Mr. McNeilly is right there as well.

The discussion highlights that the battle for control of the state party now is generational -- political, not in age. The tea party Republicans have become active only in the past four to five years. For them, it matters not what the DeVoses, McNeillys and others in the party did in the past, only on who is on what side of the issues of the day now.

10 Years Later, Mackinac Conference Looks Good For Land
Posted: September, 19 2013 2:30 PM

Ten years ago, I covered my first Mackinac Republican Leadership Conference, the biennial hobnobbing, networking and rah-rah event the Michigan Republican Party hosts on Mackinac Island for activists to prepare for the next year’s elections.

This weekend, I’ll be there again. And the weekend should be much different, in a better way, for Terri Land than it was in 2003.

Today, Ms. Land is the presumptive Republican nominee for U.S. Senate. That came after a bit of a messy weeding out process after some Republicans tried mightily to recruit someone else into the race, like U.S. Rep. Dave Camp (R-Midland) or U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Brighton). Despite some initial misgivings in the party about nominating Ms. Land for a rare open U.S. Senate seat, most in the party have now embraced her as a solid candidate. She can look forward to an enthusiastic reaction at the Grand Hotel.

Ten years ago, Ms. Land had a rough weekend. She was a little more than eight months into her tenure as secretary of state. Mike Cox had been attorney general for the same amount of time, and with Democrat Jennifer Granholm in the governor’s office, Mr. Cox and Ms. Land became rivals in the party.

Mr. Cox got a prime speaking slot at Friday night’s dinner. The huge Grand Hotel dining room was jammed to hear from Lynne Cheney, wife of then-Vice President Dick Cheney. Mr. Cox gave a speech in which he aggressively went after Ms. Granholm, received a thunderous reaction from activists and got considerable coverage in the news media.

Ms. Land was relegated to a Sunday brunch speech when half the conference attendees already were beating a path to the ferry docks to head home. The dining room was nowhere near full, and I can still remember the awkward moment when the speaker before Ms. Land concluded and several activists, having finished their meals and not wanting to leave in the middle of someone speaking, got up and left just before Ms. Land arrived at the podium.

But this weekend, Ms. Land can attend knowing the party’s U.S. Senate nomination is virtually hers, that she no longer is an up-and-comer trying to prove she can handle that type of task. That should mean a much more attentive audience when she addresses it as opposed to what happened 10 years ago.

Several Republicans Appear Fed Up With Courser
Posted: September, 13 2013 11:54 AM

Todd Courser, the Lapeer tea party activist who nearly upset Bobby Schostak for state Republican Party chair earlier this year, has gone from the object of mild irritation among establishment Republicans to one of fury.

The watershed moment came this week. On Wednesday – September 11, the 12th anniversary of the terrorist attacks on New York, Washington and Pennsylvania – Mr. Courser sent an email to his supporters, Republican activists and others criticizing Governor Rick Snyder, U.S. Rep. Candice Miller (R-Harrison Township) and other unnamed Republicans for selling out the party’s beliefs. The email was entitled “Who is primarying the governor?”

I’ll now pause for a digression. “Primary” is not a verb! Yet it has somehow entered the political lexicon, e.g. “Snyder needs to be primaried” and “Who is primarying the governor?” I am delighted to report the spellcheck on my machine is highlighting those three grammatical embarrassments in red to note that using primary as a verb is wrong. You hear me? Wrong!

Now that I have gotten that out of my system, back to Mr. Courser.

“Leadership in the Republican Party has been complicit in the downward spiral of our country, state and party,” he wrote. “We need to be the party of fiscal responsibility, personal liberty, limited government and protectors of the unborn. We have become a Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde party that the electorate has become distrustful of.”

Somewhat oddly, Mr. Courser in the span of a few sentences acknowledged some have asked him to challenge Mr. Snyder in the Republican primary and scoffed at the idea, hinting at the unrealistic prospect of unseating a sitting Republican governor in the primary, yet also refused to rule out the concept.

He then went after Mr. Snyder, Lt. Governor Brian Calley and Ms. Miller.

“Our governor increases taxes and supports Obamacare; the lieutenant governor helped pass Medicaid Expansion; and state legislators taxed our seniors,” he said. “Some of our own Republican congressional representatives like Candice Miller, voted for the stimulus, TARP, and CIPSA. No wonder the GOP has a branding issue. We have a bunch of undocumented democrats in our party.”

The next day, Mr. Courser, to paraphrase The Lemonheads, kinda, shoulda, sorta apologized to Ms. Miller, acknowledging Ms. Miller had actually voted against the Troubled Asset Relief Program and President Barack Obama’s stimulus plan. But he said she voted for subsequent legislation that tacitly endorsed those programs, making the issue, in his view, one of semantics.

Many Republicans have avoided confronting Mr. Courser about his screeds, but several tore into him via their social media accounts after this one, signaling that while the party wants to continue to embrace the rank-and-file tea party activists, several long-time conservative Republican establishment types are prepared to take on individual figures that they think are becoming a destructive force.

Stu Sandler, a conservative Republican consultant who has worked for many Republicans, such as Mr. Schostak, without criticizing Mr. Courser by name, first posted that Wednesday was not the day for mass emails and political criticisms, but should be one of reflection on the events of September 11, 2001. After Mr. Courser sent his second message the next day “apologizing” to Ms. Miller, Mr. Sandler was more critical.

“My issue with Todd A. Courser's email yesterday wasn't just that he falsely attacked a good conservative Candice Miller, my main issue was he sent out an email attacking several conservatives on September 11,” he wrote. “That's not the day for political attacks. And don't attack a good conservative like Candice Miller and lie about her record. If Courser ever decides which of the 6 offices he will run for, I hope he uses better political judgment than he did yesterday.”

Last night, Republican former Rep. Chris Ward launched a spectacular sarcastic thrashing of Mr. Courser on his Facebook page.

“Let's face it, the selling out started out with Lincoln, the man had no respect for state's rights,” Mr. Ward wrote. “Then Teddy Roosevelt....he turned his back on us and private property rights and now we are saddled with these monstrosities called national parks. The Grand Canyon is not serving the cause of free enterprise. No it is costing us taxpayers....probably millions of dollars a year!

“Oh...and the regulations....I mean if want my 8 year old to work 14 hour shifts that's my right. Don't get me started on Mr. Big Government Dwight Eisenhower with his interstate highway system. Talk about saddling us with debt. We all know the Constitution does not say ‘interstate highway system’...turncoat! The so called ‘conservative’ Barry Goldwater comes out for gay rights and abortion on demand-puke! Worst of all our hero...the preacher of the gospel Ronald Wilson Reagan signed the largest tax increase up until that point in history in 1986...just another RINO. Snyder, Brian Calley, Candace Miller...they are just more of the same old story....Thank God we have real leaders like you.”

There’s been a ton of talk about whether the Republican Party is embroiled in a “civil war.” Both the establishment and tea party sides have dismissed that talk, preferring terms like competition of ideas (as Lt. Governor Brian Calley called it) and “intense fellowship” (Mr. Courser’s language).

But it does seem the establishment is ready to declare war on Mr. Courser.

Moment Of Truth Coming In ’14 For Tea Party, State GOP
Posted: September, 5 2013 3:56 PM

By the time August 2014 is over, we should know once and for all whether the tea party movement has fully seized control of the Michigan Republican Party or remains a relatively bit player when it comes to winning key offices.

Two important stories, maybe more, will come out of the August 5 primary.

The first one is whether any tea party-oriented challengers succeeded in toppling a House or Senate Republican incumbent.

Considering that no Senate Republican incumbent has lost in a primary since 1986 and that any recent House Republican incumbent losses in a primary resulted mainly from a personal scandal, any victory by a challenger would be huge. The incumbent will have all the institutional Republican backing, including Right to Life of Michigan, a big financial advantage and in most cases longtime relationships with other Republicans in his or her area that a challenger would have to overcome.

Then there will be the open seats in safely Republican areas to monitor because no incumbent is running. There is a big movement of well-known tea party activists running for the House in these seats (See Gongwer Michigan Report, August 2, 2013) and some of them need to win to show tea party-affiliated candidates can compete in legislative Republican primaries.

So far, the tea party has just three standout victories in primaries. Now-Sen. Patrick Colbeck (R-Canton Township) came out of nowhere to win the 7th Senate District in 2010, defeating three other candidates, none of whom was very strong. Also in 2010, now-U.S. Rep. Dan Benishek (R-Crystal Falls) and now-U.S. Rep. Justin Amash (R-Cascade Township) defeated establishment Republicans in their primaries.

But that’s it. Several from the tea party world have tried to run for the Legislature and gotten utterly crushed in the Republican primary. Jason Gillman, who runs the RightMichigan blog, which has declared “war” against the GOP because of the Medicaid expansion vote, got posterized in challenging Rep. Wayne Schmidt (R-Traverse City) in the 2012 Republican primary in the 104th House District.

“Trucker” Randy Bishop, a rabble-rouser tea party activist who has drawn the ire of many currently elected Republicans with his tactics, as well as scrutiny for a criminal record. He threw his hat into the ring against now-Sen. Howard Walker (R-Traverse City) in the 2010 Republican primary for the 37th Senate District when Mr. Walker was a former member of the House and establishment favorite. Mr. Walker won by almost 30 percentage points.

An ally of Mr. Bishop’s, Al Bain, ran against Senate Majority Leader Randy Richardville (R-Monroe) that same year and got pulverized.

In the 21st Senate District in 2010, now-Sen. John Proos (R-St. Joseph) crushed another tea party activist, Todd Griffee, this time by a 3-to-1 margin. One of the leading tea party voices in Michigan, Todd Courser, ran for the 25th Senate District in 2010, and while he finished a respectable second, the combined vote of the establishment candidates in the race topped his by 2-to-1.

The area where tea party activists have shown some success is party conventions. All indications show that tea party groups have succeeded in electing their people to precinct delegate slots and then exercising enough control at county conventions to dominate the election of delegates to the state convention. That’s why so many Republicans are concerned about Lt. Governor Brian Calley, who faces a challenge to renomination at next year’s convention, which will likely be in late August.

But with all the trash talk in recent days from high-profile tea party activists – calls to grab pitchforks and torches as well as RINO hunting to target Republicans in Name Only in the wake of the Republican-led Legislature passing Medicaid expansion – taking down Mr. Calley would still not confirm their ascendancy in state Republican politics.

For that to happen, they will have to start showing they can succeed in primary politics, not just convention politics.

End Of The Road On Roads
Posted: August, 30 2013 3:34 PM

None of the major leaders at the Capitol is declaring efforts to raise more money for roads dead, but as of today it appears more and more that Governor Rick Snyder’s efforts on the issue will go into the loss column.

The fresh evidence that Mr. Snyder’s efforts to raise $1.2 billion will go for naught despite a big push by the business and transportation sectors comes from a variety of places.

For one, Mr. Snyder had a telling comment last week during a televised town hall in Grand Rapids when he said it was unclear whether the public agreed about the need. It is rare to hear Mr. Snyder concede a point of that nature.

But by all accounts, he is right. The public does not seem worked up about the state of Michigan’s roads, unlike in the 1990s where the frustration level eventually prompted a 4-cent per gallon increase in the gasoline tax in 1997. Polling continues to show no appetite for any of the obvious plans to raise revenue.

Then there is the political terrain. The Legislature is about to conclude a bruising, stressful effort to pass Medicaid expansion that has created a bitter internecine battle in the Republican Party. Tea party activists want to purge Republicans from office who in some way supported the Medicaid bill, HB 4714.

Sen. Roger Kahn (R-Saginaw Township), head of a special committee on infrastructure issues, acknowledged trying to pass a roads plan now on the heels of the Medicaid fight has become more difficult. He thought about the reaction of his local Republicans if a big push came to raise taxes for roads. He joked that while he is term limited and not running again in 2014, he would also like to remain among the living.

In the past month, Mr. Snyder and the Legislative Quadrant have been meeting privately on roads and trying to see if there is any common ground. But the reality is that doing anything would likely entail putting the proposal before voters sometime next year, and already House Minority Leader Tim Greimel (D-Auburn Hills) has said that probably will not work (See Gongwer Michigan Report, August 20, 2013) for a variety of reasons.

It’s not just roads that could be a casualty of the Medicaid fight. One lobbyist told me that he is advising his clients that any legislation involving a heavy lift probably will have to wait until the post-election lame-duck session in 2014 and the goal now is to try to position an issue so that it is ripe for action then.

Only time will tell if that’s the case, and both House and Senate Republican spokespersons have said they expect an active fall agenda.

But as far as the roads issue, it’s worth recalling what backers of raising money for roads said when Mr. Snyder mounted his big push in his January State of the State address.

The goal had to be action before the Legislature recessed for the summer in June, otherwise 2014 political realities would take hold and prove insurmountable, they said. The current predicament of the roads issue shows that prediction was anything but rhetoric.

Drama On Medicaid Vote Is Why House Lets Votes Last Indefinitely
Posted: August, 28 2013 2:04 PM

Many people, including me, have lamented for years about the voting procedures in the Michigan House Representatives compared to their colleagues on the south side of the Capitol, the Michigan Senate.

The Senate uses a “shot clock” on all votes of one minute. The vote cannot be stopped and once that minute ends, the vote goes into the Senate record.

When a bill or amendment or other issue comes up for a vote in the House, leadership can let the vote last as long as it wants, even hours, until midnight arrives at which point the chamber must adjourn for the day. I have seen several instances where a controversial measure goes up on the voting board in the House and the vote lasts for hours. And leadership can always clear the voting board to end the vote without the vote going on record.

In one example (and over the decades there are many), in 1998, then-Governor John Engler was trying to win approval of casino compacts with American Indian tribes. For three straight days, House leaders put the resolution to adopt the compacts up for a vote. The first day, the voting board was open for an hour, the second day there were two votes lasting more than three hours and the final day it took keeping the board open nearly two hours to finally adopt the resolution.

It was maddening. Many of us wished the House would get a shot clock like the Senate even though most of its votes last one to two minutes or so.

Well, the drama that unfolded Tuesday in the Senate on Medicaid expansion shows the pitfalls of the Senate approach. Senate Majority Leader Randy Richardville (R-Monroe) put the bill (HB 4714*) up on the board for a vote, thinking he had the 20 votes he needed.

But when the minute expired, shock arose throughout the Capitol. The vote was 19-18, one vote short of passage after Sen. Tom Casperson (R-Escanaba) surprised everyone with a no vote.

The Senate went into a tense recess. Three hours later, Mr. Casperson voted yes and the bill passed 20-18.

Had the Senate been using the House rules, Mr. Richardville would have walked over to Mr. Casperson during the vote, asked what the problem was and worked through the issue. Leadership could have left the voting board open until Mr. Casperson switched to a yes or cleared it and come back for a new vote later while negotiations took place. That would have been much less dramatic than the Senate voting to reject the bill.

For many years, the House has been known as the messier body than the Senate with three times the number of members, most of whom have less legislative experience than the senators, and its sometimes long votes. But that was not the case last night.

An Odd News Release From the NRSC On Peters
Posted: August, 27 2013 12:49 PM

Surely, the Republicans have credible talking points they will emphasize as they hope to defeat U.S. Rep. Gary Peters (D-Bloomfield Township) in the 2014 race for Michigan’s open U.S. Senate seat, but the one they are circulating today is flat-out strange.

The National Republican Senatorial Committee, the campaign arm of the U.S. Senate Republicans, issued a news release mocking Mr. Peters for a news conference he attended Monday announcing the start of a ramped up effort to raze blighted structures in Detroit. On Saturday, Republicans waged a door-to-door effort to make the case against Mr. Peters and tie him to Detroit’s struggles.

“These volunteers made the case that Congressman Gary Peters – who represents Detroit – has been invisible and done little as the city and her people fight tooth and nail to survive,” the news release said. “The result? Gary Peters panicked and held a press conference to talk about Detroit – yet still failed to offer any coherent solutions to help struggling residents of Detroit or the city itself.”

Wait, what?

The news conference in question was one announced and led by Republican Governor Rick Snyder because it is the Michigan State Housing Development Authority administering the funding provided by the federal government to combat blight. The governor’s communications office sent out an advisory about it at 4:45 p.m. Friday, and in the photo used in the release by the NRSC, you can see Mr. Snyder sitting in the background behind Mr. Peters.

Clearly Republicans will try to tie Mr. Peters to having part of his district in Detroit and attach blame to him for the city’s severe difficulties. Mr. Peters, the presumptive Democratic nominee, and the eventual Republican nominee, will debate that argument like any other point in a political campaign.

But to say Mr. Peters “panicked and held a press conference” in response to Saturday’s GOP door-to-door efforts? That must be news to Mr. Snyder and his communications office.

The Grand Ledge Connection In Speed Limit Issue
Posted: August, 23 2013 11:46 AM

Sen. Rick Jones (R-Grand Ledge) is getting ready to lead the charge to raise the speed limit on most Michigan highways to 75 mph, even 80 mph in some spots, and while the issue fits with Mr. Jones’ penchant for championing splashy issues, there is some irony considering his hometown.

Gongwer News Service first reported Mr. Jones’ discussions with the Department of State Police about preparing legislation to raise the speed limit on Michigan expressways for the first time since 1996 (See Gongwer Michigan Report, August 15, 2013).

Going back to that debate, the lead legislator arguing against raising the speed limit from 65 to 70 mph was then-Rep. Frank Fitzgerald, a Republican, who like Mr. Jones also lived in Grand Ledge. I was covering the Capitol for The State News, the Michigan State University student-run newspaper, and Mr. Fitzgerald’s passion on the issue was unmatched.

Back then, Mr. Fitzgerald said he was willing to support increasing the speed limit to 70 mph if the Legislature also passed legislation making it a primary offense not to wear a safety belt. At the time, it was a secondary offense, meaning people could only receive a ticket if police pulled them over for another offense. The Legislature balked at making it a primary offense and passed the speed limit increase without the change in seat belt enforcement.

In 1999, with Mr. Fitzgerald no longer in the House because of term limits, the Legislature took the step he had so strongly supported, making it a primary offense not to wear a seat belt starting in 2000.

I wish I could ask Mr. Fitzgerald for his thoughts on the idea of raising the speed limit to 75 or 80 mph, but sadly, he died at 49 in 2004, and in my nearly 11 years of covering the Capitol I can’t recall a moment that left so many people so stunned and devastated because of his age and how universally respected he was (See Gongwer Michigan Report, December 10, 2004).

In any case, Mr. Jones’ interest in speed limits given Mr. Fitzgerald’s past role on the issue is an interesting twist for the city just west of Lansing named for its location on the Grand River and popular rock ledges.

The Politics Of The Detroit Mayoral Mess
Posted: August, 21 2013 1:38 PM

One of the names that has circulated as a possible Democratic secretary of state candidate for 2014 is Detroit City Clerk Janice Winfrey, but in the wake of Detroit election workers improperly tallying write-in ballots in the city’s mayoral primary, Ms. Winfrey’s chances of winning the Democratic nomination have taken a hit.

Another name occasionally floated as a Democratic secretary of state candidate, Wayne County Clerk Cathy Garrett, also has taken some damage from the situation.

Now, it is early to assign blame to either clerk, and the facts have yet to fully be sorted out. However, there is no question the politics of the situation hurt both Ms. Garrett and Ms. Winfrey as far as any aspirations they may have for higher office. Should one of them ever become the Democratic nominee for secretary of state, I can guarantee the Republicans will run an ad prominently featuring today’s Detroit Free Press front page with the huge headline “MAYOR COUNT IN CHAOS” (with the headline in all capital letters).

Nominating either Ms. Garrett or Ms. Winfrey already would have presented some problems for the Democrats because it is difficult to imagine any Detroit or Wayne County elected official winning a statewide election given both governments’ current predicament – the city filing for bankruptcy, the county in major financial difficulty, ongoing corruption trials and investigations of both governments and dysfunction in seemingly every city service. Neither clerk is directly involved in those matters, but this is politics and opponents brand you guilty by association.

Until Monday – when the Wayne County Board of Canvassers revealed the oversight in the tallying process by city election workers – the Detroit clerk’s office under Ms. Winfrey essentially was unblemished.

After the unknown Ms. Winfrey ousted Jackie Currie in a huge upset in 2005, the math teacher swiftly repaired what had been a troubled operation. Among the many snafus was the 2002 primary where it took days for the city to complete its count. Detroit for several years now completes it count well ahead of many suburbs and outstate jurisdictions that keep the state waiting well past midnight for results.

State Elections Director Chris Thomas, who had to deal with all the problems Ms. Currie’s tenure involved, backed Ms. Winfrey during a conference call Wednesday with reporters and said her office has run a good election day operation.

Ms. Garrett has the lower profile post as the county clerk and until now there has not been a major snafu that I can recall in her more than 12 years on the job with how her office has handled elections. Her office has come under criticism for other aspects of its operations, and other county Democrats have quietly grumbled about her, but as the sister of Al Garrett, president of the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees Council 25, no one significant has ever dared challenge her in the Democratic primary.

Ms. Garrett does not seem to harbor any interest in higher office, but Ms. Winfrey did try for secretary of state in 2010, losing the battle for the Democratic nomination to Jocelyn Benson. If Ms. Garrett was hoping to make the leap or Ms. Winfrey had hopes of another try, Democrats would be taking a big risk in nominating either.

Looking At The Capitol’s Top Political Dynasties
Posted: August, 20 2013 2:34 PM

At least two spouses are running for the House to succeed their term-limited husbands in 2014, part of a long-running tradition in Michigan politics, so what better time to consider the top currently active political dynasties in the Capitol.

Now the question is whether Nancy Crawford, wife of Rep. Hugh Crawford (R-Novi), and Erika Geiss, wife of Rep. Doug Geiss (D-Taylor), can join this list.

7. The Switalskis: One of the top names in Macomb County politics has been in the Legislature since 1999 when Mickey Switalski after he won his first term in the House. He joined the Senate in 2003, serving through 2010. Mr. Switalski’s cousin, Rep. Jon Switalski (D-Warren) won a House seat in 2008 as well as re-election in 2010 and 2012. But he cannot run again in 2014 because of term limits, so the family’s 16-year streak is in jeopardy.

6. The Stamases: Like the Switalskis, the Stamas family has a 16-year streak of continuous service. Tony Stamas served in the House from 1999-2002, then in the Senate from 2003-10 and is now chief of staff to Senate Majority Leader Randy Richardville (R-Monroe). Tony’s brother, House Majority Floor Leader Jim Stamas (R-Midland), has served in the House since 2009 and cannot seek re-election because of term limits. The expectation is that Jim will run for his area’s Senate seat once term limits prevents Sen. John Moolenaar (R-Midland) from seeking re-election in 2018.

5. The Kowalls: Rep. Eileen Kowall (R-White Lake Township) and husband Sen. Mike Kowall (R-White Lake Township) get points for congruity as only the second husband and wife to serve concurrently in the Legislature in modern times. Mr. Kowall served in the House from 1999-2002 and began his first term in the Senate in 2011. Ms. Kowall has served in the House since 2009.

4. The Stallworths: This dynasty goes back to the 1970s and was revived with Rep. Thomas Stallworth (D-Detroit) winning his first term in 2010 and a second term in 2012. Prior to Thomas, there was his mother, former Rep. Alma Stallworth in 2003-04. Preceding Alma was her son and Thomas’ brother, Keith, from 1997-2002. Then prior to Keith, Alma served from 1971-74 and from 1982-96. There has been a Stallworth serving for 29 of the last 43 years.

3. The Smiths: Sen. Virgil Smith (D-Detroit) served in the House from 2003-08 and joined the Senate in 2011. His father, Virgil C. Smith Jr. (the son is Virgil K. Smith), served in the House from 1977-88 and the Senate from 1988-2000. There has been a member of this family in the Legislature for 32 of the last 36 years.

2. The Hoods: Sen. Morris Hood III (D-Detroit), his father, the late Rep. Morris Hood Jr. and Senator Hood’s uncle, the late Rep. Ray Hood Sr., have a combined 44 years of service in the Legislature between them. Ray served in the House from 1965-82. His brother, Morris Jr., served from 1971-98. Morris III served in the House from 2003-08 and joined the Senate in 2011. A Hood has served in the Legislature for 44 of the last 48 years.

1. The Roccas: This is by far the longest continuous active dynasty at the Capitol. Sen. Tory Rocca (R-Sterling Heights) is keeping up the family business in his first term in the Senate. He served in the House from 2005-10. Prior to Tory, his father, Sal, served from 2001-04. Prior to Sal, Tory’s mother and Sal’s wife, Sue, served from 1995-2000. And prior to Sue – stay with me here – Sal had a long run from 1975-94 although he missed the 1981-82 term after losing re-election in 1980 and winning a return in 1982. There has been a Rocca serving in the Legislature for 30 consecutive years and 35 of the last 37.

T-Minus 15 Days On Bolger-Schmidt Grand Jury
Posted: August, 8 2013 3:27 PM

From May through August in 2012, it seemed there were new and significant developments almost daily into the election scandal stemming from then-Rep. Roy Schmidt’s move to leave the Democratic Party and file for re-election as a Republican minutes before the deadline to file, leaving his former party without a candidate.

Then, on August 28, 2012, the Ingham County Circuit Court empaneled a one-person grand jury to investigate whether any crimes were committed in the circumstances surrounding Mr. Schmidt’s party switch and subsequent recruitment of family friend Matt Mojzak to file as a straw Democratic candidate. The presence of Mr. Mojzak on the ballot was designed to make it difficult for local Democrats to nominate a legitimate Democrat as a write-in to run against Mr. Schmidt.

Grand juries operate in secret with severe penalties for leaks. So since then, little has emerged about what is happening other than that Ingham Circuit Judge Rosemarie Aquilina, serving as the grand juror, in February granting the allowed one-time six-month extension for the grand jury. She has two special prosecutors working the case, Mike Ferency, a former Ingham County assistant prosecutor, and John Smietanka, the former U.S. attorney for the Western District of Michigan and the Republican nominee for attorney general in 1994 and 1998.

What is known is that Mr. Mojzak made two false statements on his affidavit of identity when he filed to run before eventually withdrawing. He claimed to live at a residence in the 76th House District when he did not, and he claimed to have lived in Kent County for 22 years when he had not.

But the intense interest in the scandal was never about Mr. Mojzak, a body-builder and friend of Mr. Mojzak’s son and nephew. The big question about the grand jury probe is whether it could lead to criminal charges for House Speaker Jase Bolger (R-Marshall) and Mr. Schmidt, whom now-Rep. Winnie Brinks (D-Grand Rapids) ousted in the 2012 elections after the scandal incinerated his political career. Mr. Bolger and Mr. Schmidt personally mapped out the party switch and the strategy for a straw candidate.

Mr. Bolger has said Mr. Schmidt told him the person running as a Democrat was above-board. Mr. Schmidt has said his son and nephew had assured him that Mr. Mojzak lived in the district and met all legal qualifications to run.

Ms. Aquilina has significant Democratic connections, having once served as an aide to a Democratic state senator and run for the Senate as a Democrat. Republicans had mostly held off criticism of her until her recent rulings in the Detroit bankruptcy case in which she sided with unions and ruled Governor Rick Snyder had violated the Constitution in allowing Detroit to file for bankruptcy. What really seemed to irritate the GOP was her unorthodox decision to send a copy of her ruling to President Barack Obama.

If Ms. Aquilina levies charges against Mr. Bolger, it seems certain Republicans will deride her as a partisan although Mr. Smietanka’s involvement would help blunt that sentiment.

The last day for the grand jury is August 22 although there is no reason Ms. Aquilina could not wrap it up before then.

Until then, we wait and keep an ever-close eye on our email inboxes.

In the meantime, you can watch this security footage Gongwer obtained from a secretary of state branch office in Grand Rapids of Mr. Mojzak and Mr. Schmidt meeting clandestinely to discuss the plan before it fell apart.

Sprucing Up Michigan’s Rest Areas
Posted: July, 26 2013 2:04 PM

Thursday’s announcement by the Department of Transportation that it is seeking to gauge the level of interest in public-private partnerships to upgrade two of its highway rest areas means perhaps the department is ready to move into the 1990s modern times when it comes to the state’s rest areas.

For if Michigan is famous for its lakes and automobiles, having some of the vilest rest areas in the national highway system also is something with which Michiganders are all too familiar.

If you travel mainly in Michigan, you know that its rest areas often stink, are generally dirty and reveal that an astonishing number of people apparently have an allergy to flushing the toilet.

A few years ago, returning from a trip to Ohio, after getting spoiled from the rest areas along the I-80/I-90 Ohio turnpike – which are clean, new and sport many restaurant options – we had to make a stop at a rest area after crossing into Michigan. My horrified wife reported that most of the ladies room toilets were, uh, full, showing that men do not hold a monopoly on this flushing allergy thing.

She overheard another woman and her daughter surveying the gruesome scene in which the mother said something to the effect of, “Well, you know we’re back in Michigan now.”

The move to upgrade rest areas also is a reversal from the department’s move to shutter some lately. We frequently make the drive between metro Detroit and our home in East Lansing, and losing the rest area on westbound I-96 near Howell was a big loss since our 5-year-old always seems to need a pit stop about halfway through the drive.

Now, to be fair, the Department of Transportation did in the last couple years raze and rebuild the rest area on westbound I-96 just east of Okemos, and it actually is a major improvement. There’s even family restrooms! I was recently driving back from the Detroit area with my two young daughters and that was a lifesaver when one of them needed a stop.

So if the Department of Transportation's move means that Michigan rest areas might take on the cleanliness and practicality of those along the Ohio Turnpike or the oases in Illinois, both of which feature counter-service restaurants and gas stations, huzzah.

In the meantime, please people, flush the dang toilet.

A Disagreement Between Judge Rhodes, Michigan Supreme Court
Posted: July, 22 2013 4:04 PM

Here’s a footnote to U.S. Bankruptcy Judge Steven Rhodes’ appointment as the judge to oversee the city of Detroit’s Chapter 9 bankruptcy filing: He and the Michigan Supreme Court once had a bit of a run-in, in judicial terms.

Oh, it was nothing like the game of beanball the Detroit Tigers and Chicago White Sox played recently although the idea of robed judges leaving their benches in a melee over a judicial disagreement is amusing.

No, in 2006, while Mr. Rhodes was the chief judge of the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Eastern District of Michigan, the Michigan Supreme Court rejected a request from the bankruptcy court to decide a controversial and important question on mortgage foreclosures.

The question the federal court certified to the Michigan Supreme Court was when a mortgage is deemed recorded if the county register of deeds does not maintain an entry book as required by state statute. In his state of the court speech in 2006, Mr. Rhodes said the court had about 90 proceedings in which the cases hinged on that question.

But the Michigan Supreme Court, in an October 20, 2006, order denied the request on a 6-1 vote.

Justice Robert Young Jr. and former Justice Maura Corrigan, now the director of the Department of Human Services, scoffed at the request in separate concurring opinions that took the same tack.

“In effect, this court is being asked to create extra-statutory rules regarding property priority claims,” Mr. Young wrote. “Given that our Legislature has prescribed how such priorities are to be resolved, the request essentially requires this court to write a new priority statute. This is a task better suited to the legislative process.”

Mr. Rhodes, in his state of the court speech, was less than pleased with that logic.

“The problem with those views is that our certification did not ask the court to fix anything; indeed, I am pretty sure that trustees don’t want the problem fixed!” he said. “Rather, our certification asked for a resolution of an issue of state property law that, under principles of federalism and comity, we thought it was best to let the state court resolve, and that is necessary to resolve 90 real cases. Now this important issue of state property law will have to be decided by the federal courts.”

Democratic Reaction To Detroit Bankruptcy Varies Wildly
Posted: July, 19 2013 11:48 AM

Depending on which Democrat is doing the talking, Governor Rick Snyder’s authorization of Detroit to enter Chapter 9 bankruptcy either showed he deceived voters about his intentions for Detroit or represented a grim but necessary step to repair the city.

Former Democratic Party Chair Mark Brewer said it well when he posted this comment from his Twitter account Thursday: “Fascinating political calculus in the reaction of each elected official and candidate to Detroit's bankruptcy filing.”

At the Capitol, the two Democratic legislative leaders offered starkly different takes.

Senate Minority Leader Gretchen Whitmer of East Lansing called the news disappointing, but a signal for the state to unify behind its largest city.

“This is not a time to point fingers, but a time to work toward solutions that guarantee the progress being made within the city of Detroit will not only continue, but accelerate," she said on her Facebook page.

About the same time, House Minority Leader Tim Greimel of Auburn Hills criticized those responsible for Detroit’s predicament from his Twitter account.

Bankruptcy could have been avoided if past and present city officials had shown more leadership, if Mr. Snyder acted sooner and if Republicans had not cut revenue sharing aid to local governments, Mr. Greimel said.

“By choosing bankruptcy, Kevyn Orr and Gov. Snyder have put the people and the property of Detroit in harm’s way – including vital city services, hard-earned pensions and cultural treasures,” he said. “Also, bankruptcy will likely negatively impact credit ratings.”

Top AFL-CIO leaders in Michigan accused Mr. Snyder of deceptively putting an emergency manager in charge of the city instead of leaving elected officials in charge and letting them file for bankruptcy.

Yet no less a Michigan Democratic icon and lifelong Detroiter as U.S. Sen. Carl Levin said while the bankruptcy filing saddened him, he also acknowledged it was necessary.

The top two Democratic candidates for office in 2014, former U.S. Rep. Mark Schauer, who is running for governor, and U.S. Rep. Gary Peters, who is running for U.S. Senate, did not issue statements about the announcement.

Legislators who represent Detroit also reacted differently. Sen. Bert Johnson (D-Highland Park) called out Mr. Snyder for previous comments in 2011 insisting he would not allow Detroit to go into bankruptcy. Mr. Johnson said the bankruptcy action was regrettable.

But Rep. David Nathan (D-Detroit) said the city should have been allowed to file for bankruptcy a long time ago, calling it the only solution to the city’s financial problems.

Byrnes Congressional Bid Could Have Spillover Effect
Posted: July, 18 2013 12:45 PM

The surprise announcement today from former Rep. Pam Byrnes (D-Chelsea) that she is running for the 7th U.S. House District against U.S. Rep. Tim Walberg (R-Tipton) has implications beyond signaling that Mr. Walberg will not get a pass for re-election like he did in 2012 from the Democrats.

The presence of Ms. Byrnes and a credible congressional bid should have Democrats smiling throughout southern Michigan, where a slew of hotly competitive state legislative seats reside. With 2014 a mid-term year, a cycle when Democratic turnout traditionally suffers compared to presidential years, Democrats need every tool available to ensure their voters show up.

First-term Democrats in competitive seats like Rep. Theresa Abed of Grand Ledge and Rep. Gretchen Driskell of Saline will be seeking re-election in a tougher environment than they did in 2012. Both live in the 7th and will benefit from Ms. Byrnes’ bid, especially if national Democratic money pours into the seat.

The 17th Senate District in Lenawee and Monroe counties looms as the most competitive Senate race in the state in 2014. It is fully contained within the 7th.

The 56th House District held by Rep. Dale Zorn (R-Ida) will be up for grabs with Mr. Zorn running for the 17th Senate District. It also is fully within the 7th U.S. House District. Another seat that could see spillover implications is the 57th House District unless Democrats decide not to press Rep. Nancy Jenkins (R-Clayton) for a third and final term.

Democrats are making noises about going after Sen. Rick Jones (R-Grand Ledge), who has part of his district in the 7th.

To aid Mr. Walberg, Republicans will surely match whatever Democrats pour into the district. But Republicans have a better track record of turning out in mid-term elections than Democrats and thus less room for growth, so if more Democratic energy results in better Democratic turnout, that could make for an especially intense 2014 cycle in the southeastern-most portion of the state.

National Pundits Putting Increasing Focus On Mich. Gov. Race
Posted: July, 10 2013 1:50 PM

Three of the most prominent national political analysts now have Michigan’s 2014 governor’s race as among the most competitive in the nation.

Tuesday, Stu Rothenberg wrote on his blog for Roll Call that he was moving Michigan from “Toss-up/Tilt Republican” to “Pure Toss-up.” In June, Larry Sabato declared Michigan’s gubernatorial race one of five toss-up races nationally in 2014. In late May, The Fix, the Washington Post’s politics blog, moved Michigan up from seventh place to sixth as far as having the most likelihood of seeing a change in partisan control.

With all signs pointing toward former U.S. Rep. Mark Schauer as the presumptive Democratic nominee against Republican Governor Rick Snyder, who is expected to seek re-election, Democrats have sought to take advantage of this favorable publicity. Various Democrats quickly pushed out news Tuesday of Mr. Rothenberg’s new assessment of the race via social media and email.

It is one of the ways Democrats can seek to take advantage of the first time in decades where there is no competition for their party’s gubernatorial nomination, not counting years like 1986, 1990 and 2006 when an incumbent Democratic governor was seeking re-election.

There is so much time, in political terms, between now and next summer, when the gubernatorial race will heat up in earnest, that Democrats need to find ways to keep their supporters engaged. Informing core Democratic partisans about the national attitude toward the race can only help.

Mr. Schauer and Democrats can also use the favorable publicity to push a “We can win this race” theme with potential donors. Washington-based analysts ranking Michigan as a hotly competitive race also is a sign that national political strategists feel the same way. That is key for Mr. Schauer, who will need national Democratic funders to help him counter what will surely be an enormous pile of campaign money on behalf of Mr. Snyder.

Column Offensive Latest Move From Medicaid Expansion Backers
Posted: July, 8 2013 1:40 PM

In the past four days, backers of Medicaid expansion have mounted an aggressive effort on the op-ed pages of three major media outlets with Republicans penning columns calling for the Senate to act on the issue.

On Friday, House Speaker Jase Bolger (R-Marshall) offered an argument tailored to conservatives in a Battle Creek Enquirer column touting the reforms to Medicaid in HB 4714* that would accompany expanding access to Medicaid for those with incomes up to 133 percent of the federal poverty level.

In the column, Mr. Bolger steered clear of any criticism of the Senate.

“Very conservative colleagues who carefully reviewed this legislation decided that we, as a state, should grab an opportunity and finally reform Medicaid, even if it means expanding it for now,” he wrote. “I couldn’t agree more and the House stands ready to hold session as soon as the Senate completes its work and sends House Bill (4714) to us for final concurrence.”

On Saturday, Rep. Joe Haveman (R-Holland), the House Appropriations Committee chair, wrote a column for the Detroit Free Press in which he mostly made the case for why the Medicaid legislation would help businesses.

Mr. Haveman called for the Senate or Governor Rick Snyder to act quickly on any changes to what the House passed. It was a bit curious to include Mr. Snyder because he supports the House-passed bill and also is calling on the Senate to move with dispatch, but lumping the two together avoids singling out the Senate where majority Republicans have set up a workgroup on the issue.

And Monday, Republican former House Speaker Rick Johnson wrote a column for Mlive.com chiding the Senate for delaying the legislation for “mostly political” reasons. Mr. Johnson is now president of the Dodak, Johnson and Associates LLC lobbying firm. It is one of several firms lobbying on behalf of the Detroit Medical Center, according to state records, and the hospital serves a large Medicaid population.

Mr. Johnson served in the House with now-Senate Majority Leader Randy Richardville (R-Monroe) from 1999-2004. In the 2003-04 term, Mr. Johnson was speaker and Mr. Richardville was his top lieutenant as majority floor leader.

“This is a time to put statesmanship above partisanship,” Mr. Johnson wrote. “The Senate should reconvene soon and pass this much-needed health care reform.”

Polling A Race With A Quality Write-In Candidate, Part Two
Posted: July, 1 2013 12:26 PM

On Friday, I posted my take on how Mike Duggan’s write-in candidacy for Detroit mayor renders polling the race pointless because it is virtually impossible to translate a response in a telephone poll to whether that person will write in a name at the actual polls on election day.

I got some interesting feedback from one of the sharpest political minds in the state, former Democratic Party Chair Mark Brewer, as well as others that was worth sharing and provides some confirmation and some rebuttal on the issue.

Mr. Brewer pointed to one of the best-known modern write-in success stories, U.S. Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), who in 2010 lost the Republican primary in her state but then won the general election and another term, running as a write-in. Mr. Brewer pointed to a terrific Campaigns and Elections article looking at the lessons from Ms. Murkowski’s win.

For the purposes of this issue, the relevant portion of the article is in the polling section. Indeed, the consensus of those interviewed for the article was that the most frustrating aspect of a write-in campaign is the difficulty in obtaining an accurate poll.

Mr. Brewer notes that one poll did come within five percentage points of Ms. Murkowski’s 39 percent total. The article notes that the range of polls was wild with Ms. Murkowski receiving anywhere from 17 to 34 percent.

It also cites no less an authority than statistics guru Nate Silver, who writes the FiveThirtyEight blog for The New York Times. Mr. Silver has said, according to Campaigns and Elections, that probably the best way to poll a race with a quality write-in candidate is to first ask respondents their preference from the names of the candidates on the ballot or a write-in candidate. If the respondent answered write-in, then the interviewer would ask which write-in candidate without prompting any names.

That type of system makes automated polling much more difficult, perhaps impossible, and means likely having to use live telephone interviews, which is more expensive.

It is worth noting, however, that Mr. Silver, who correctly forecast all 50 states’ outcomes in the presidential race in 2012, actually got it wrong in the 2010 Alaska Senate race, forecasting Joe Miller to beat Ms. Murkowski and the Democratic nominee. Such is the difficulty in trying to ascertain the status of a race with a high-quality write-in like Ms. Murkowski or Mr. Duggan that even an oracle like Mr. Silver got tripped up.

Other feedback included some informal response from those affiliated with the Duggan campaign noting some important differences between the failed 2012 write-in bid by Nancy Cassis in the 11th U.S. House District Republican primary against now-U.S. Rep. Kerry Bentivolio (R-Milford) and what Mr. Duggan is attempting this year.

The key, this person said, is to have a huge volunteer presence at precinct locations to make sure Duggan voters know to write him in. Ms. Cassis had little presence at the precincts in the 2012 primary to accomplish that task.

Additionally, it’s worth noting that Ms. Cassis had a standing start to her campaign that began weeks before the primary while Mr. Duggan has had a full-fledged campaign operation for a year. Ms. Cassis had little money. Mr. Duggan has a big war chest.

So perhaps instead of saying that polling the 2013 Detroit mayoral primary is a pointless task, the better take is to call it extremely difficult and say any survey results should not to be taken as gospel without significant inquiry into the pollster’s methods.

Duggan Write-In Bid Makes Polls Pointless On Detroit Mayoral Race
Posted: June, 28 2013 11:35 AM

Now that Mike Duggan has changed his mind and decided to wage what can charitably be described as an uphill battle to run as a write-in for Detroit mayor, in hopes of finishing in the top two in the August primary, one side-effect of that decision is to render polling of the race worthless.

Asking someone in a telephone survey if they will write-in Mr. Duggan alongside asking about support for other candidates like Wayne County Sheriff Benny Napoleon, former Rep. Lisa Howze and Rep. Fred Durhal Jr. will fail to yield a true measurement of how many will actually remember to check the write-in box and write in Mr. Duggan’s name.

For proof of that, flash back to the August 2012 primary in which former Sen. Nancy Cassis of Novi mounted a write-in bid for the 11th U.S. House District in an effort to stop Kerry Bentivolio, the gadfly candidate left as the only Republican on the ballot after then-U.S. Rep. Thaddeus McCotter got tossed from the ballot in a petition fraud scandal.

Several media outlets hired the respected polling firm EPIC/MRA, which also polls occasionally for Gongwer News Service, to conduct a survey on the Republican primary between Mr. Bentivolio and Ms. Cassis. The poll showed Ms. Cassis at 52 percent and Mr. Bentivolio at 36 percent and heartened Cassis supporters who thought that she had a chance.

But Mr. Bentivolio, just days after the poll was released, beat Ms. Cassis handily, taking 66.3 percent of the vote to Ms. Cassis’ 33.5 percent, a nearly 20 percent falloff from what she got in the poll.

Maybe that does provide a clue as to how to take a bit – and only a bit – of value out of any polling that does occur between now and the primary. The thinking is Mr. Duggan will need 20 to 25 percent to finish in the top two, so if he is polling at less than 45 percent, it suggests his difficult path to make the general election is nearly closed.

56, 20 And 1, RIP
Posted: June, 27 2013 3:11 PM

Lobbyists at the Capitol have always emphasized a trio of numbers as the maxim when it comes to passing legislation: 56, 20 and 1.

That is, 56 votes to pass a bill in the House, 20 to pass it in the Senate and one governor to sign it.

Last week brought the latest confirmation that this maxim is dead after the Republican-led Senate declined to vote on the Medicaid expansion legislation (HB 4714*). Supporters of the legislation say if it was put up for a vote, it would pass 20-18. If that scenario occurred, it would mean eight Republicans voting yes and 18 voting no.

Senate Majority Leader Randy Richardville (R-Monroe) has said there is a Senate Republican caucus rule that says at least half the caucus members must at least agree to allow a vote on a controversial issue for a vote to occur. And so a vote did not occur, pending the outcome of a workgroup on the issue.

In the past, governors and legislative leaders could try to assemble a majority in either legislative house without having to worry about such a restriction. The income tax increase that passed the Republican-led Senate, for example, in 2007, consisted of 15 Democrats and four Republicans voting yes with then-Lt. Governor John Cherry Jr. breaking a 19-19 tie for passage. The Senate was split 21-17 in favor of Republicans at the time.

The workplace smoking ban passed the Senate in 2010 with nine of the 22 Republicans voting yes and 12 voting no (one was absent).

And in 2009, during a protracted budget battle, the Democrat-led House passed budget cuts with a coalition of just 15 of the more than 60 Democratic members and most of the minority Republican caucus.

In 2004, the Republican-controlled House approved a hefty 75 cents per pack increase in the cigarette tax that saw just 13 of more than 60 Republican members vote yes in a coalition with 42 Democrats (there was a vacancy at the time, as there is now, so 55 votes were needed for passage).

In some ways, the new maxim is 13, 30 and one based on the current size of the majority caucuses in the House and Senate. But the House vote on Medicaid expansion shows it is not that simple. In that vote, 28 Republicans voted yes and 30 voted no. Clearly there was a willingness of a majority of the caucus to let the vote occur.

So that is what activists on an issue must target now – 56, 20 and one to pass the legislation AND 13, 30 and one in the majority caucus who agree to let a vote occur.

Incidentally, the one market near the Capitol that sold aspirin just closed.

The Primary Question On Medicaid
Posted: June, 13 2013 3:21 PM

As the Legislature gets ready to move forward on Medicaid expansion and other controversial issues, talk continues to build about legislative Republicans fearing challenges to renomination in the August 2014 primary.

In the Senate, the fear is incumbent House Republicans using votes in favor of Medicaid expansion or other revenue increases to unseat sitting GOP senators. In the House, the worry is of local officials or other Republican partisans challenging incumbent House GOP members. Or for House members looking to run for open Senate seats, the concern is how their record matches up against other Republicans who might seek the same GOP-leaning Senate seats.

The angst among incumbents who might have to fend off a primary challenger to keep his or her seat is hard to understand.

Since 1996, only two incumbent House or Senate Republicans failed to win renomination – former Rep. Roland Jersevic in 1996 and former Rep. Kurt Damrow in 2012. Both men lost because of scandal and voter unrest about their personal character, not their votes.

To be sure, there have been some close calls.

Rep. Paul Muxlow (R-Brown City) barely prevailed in 2012 after school choice backers funded a strong challenge over his opposition to some of their issues.

Former Rep. Lorence Wenke narrowly escaped in 2004 as did former Rep. Jim Koetje in 2002 and ex-Rep. Judie Scranton in 2000. However, Mr. Koetje nearly lost solely because redistricting had forced him to run before an almost entirely new group of voters. Mr. Wenke and Ms. Scranton barely survived because their positions on prominent social issues (gay marriage and abortion, respectively) were at odds with much of their party.

In 2002, conservatives tried to oust a handful of House Republicans based on their resistance to school choice legislation. All of the incumbents comfortably won.

The last time an incumbent House Republican unseated an incumbent Senate Republican in a primary was 1986 when then-Rep. Doug Carl unseated then-Sen. Kirby Holmes in a classic Macomb County brawl that saw Mr. Carl accuse Mr. Holmes of all kinds of wrongdoing. Mr. Holmes’ voting record did not appear to be an issue then.

In short, there simply is no modern precedent where Republican voters of a legislative district unseated their legislative Republican incumbent based on how he or she voted on policy.

Even looking at the many instances of current and former Republican House members facing off for an open Senate seat, none of the outcomes appeared dependent on a difference in voting record. Many other factors were in play.

Former House Speaker Rick Johnson liked to say there was no one vote a legislator could cast that would lead to his or her defeat. In primaries, that certainly has proven true, and for Republican activists threatening to oust incumbent GOP lawmakers for their Medicaid votes, they will be fighting against years of history.

Dissecting The Politics Of Pulte Yanking HQ From Michigan
Posted: May, 31 2013 12:37 PM

Governor Rick Snyder received the first significant bad economic news of his administration Thursday night with word that the homebuilding company PulteGroup, Incorporated, planned to move its headquarters from Bloomfield Hills to Atlanta, taking 300 jobs out of state.

Mr. Snyder took office January 1, 2011, as the state’s fragile economic recovery was edging along and has not had to grapple with this type of announcement so far. It extends what has been by far the most problematic month of Mr. Snyder’s term, which Gongwer explored in a story last week (See Gongwer Michigan Report, May 24, 2013).

In terms of overall job impact, losing 300 jobs, while certainly bad, is relatively small compared to the recent economic forecast that Michigan would gain more than 50,000 jobs this year.

But corporate headquarters carry a special cachet. Having a corporate headquarters means not only the jobs that go with them, but the potential for a business to invest heavily in the community. It means more big-time donors who can write fat checks for various causes.

Former Governor Jennifer Granholm had to endure a similar announcement when Comerica Bank announced in 2007 it was leaving Detroit for Dallas.

Democratic consultants and activists immediately cast the Pulte decision as an indictment of Mr. Snyder’s policies, which have emphasized a business-friendly climate through slashing business taxes, reducing regulation and curbing union powers, mainly in the public sector, but also in the private sector with the right-to-work legislation. Senate Minority Leader Gretchen Whitmer (D-East Lansing) used the Pulte announcement as a cudgel during the Legislative Quadrant session at the Detroit Regional Chamber’s Mackinac Policy Conference.

It was the same in 2007. Then-Republican Party Chair Saul Anuzis said the Comerica announcement showed Ms. Granholm’s proposal earlier in the year supporting a sales tax on services was ill-advised.

Long-term, presuming the state’s economy continues trending upward, albeit slowly, Pulte’s announcement should not dent the state’s overall economic conditions, nor the politics of those conditions. Mr. Snyder will continue to call Michigan the “Comeback State” and Democrats will say Mr. Snyder’s policies deserve no credit. For a while, Democrats will use Pulte as a retort to the “Comeback State” message just as Ms. Whitmer did today.

 

Short-term, it might deprive Mr. Snyder of a turning point he could have used to stanch the setbacks of the past month. Last week, analysts said the Mackinac conference offered him a useful opportunity to regain momentum and go back on the offense.

Instead, most of the news out of the conference was largely dominated by Mr. Snyder trying to calm nerves about the possible sale of the Detroit Institute of Arts’ collection to satisfy the city’s creditors if it files Chapter 9 bankruptcy and then capped with the Pulte announcement.

DIA Situation Looms As Major Political Liability For Snyder
Posted: May, 24 2013 11:16 AM

When Governor Rick Snyder decided to intervene in financially troubled Detroit and appoint an emergency manager, polls suggested political upside for the governor.

Support for naming an emergency manager to take control of the city from elected officials ran strong in the Detroit suburbs, which will likely determine whether Mr. Snyder gets a second term in 2014 or former U.S. Rep. Mark Schauer, the presumptive Democratic nominee, unseats him. Not that Detroit is the issue on which the election will turn, but the polling suggested no harm for Mr. Snyder in sending an emergency manager to the city.

In the last 14 hours, all that has changed.

Thursday night, the Detroit Free Press reported that Detroit Emergency Manager Kevyn Orr, Mr. Snyder’s handpicked choice for the job, is exploring the possibility of selling the Detroit Institute of Arts’ vaunted collection to address the city’s mountainous debt and liabilities. The concept raises a slew of questions.

Is the art in the DIA a city asset? The city still owns the DIA, but the DIA runs separately from city government. If Detroit went into Chapter 9 bankruptcy, could a judge force the sale of the DIA collection? There are many others, but set those aside for now.

For now, let’s focus on the potentially severely negative political impact this idea could have on Mr. Snyder if brought to fruition.

Voters in Macomb, Oakland and Wayne counties voted to raise their property taxes to support the DIA, which has one of the best collections in the nation. If Mr. Snyder’s appointee to run Detroit suddenly renders the DIA’s collection no better than the artwork available at the nearest elementary school, voter reaction in those critical areas could only be one thing – very, very bad.

Then there’s the potent donor community that funds the DIA – and political campaigns. If Mr. Orr essentially dismantles the DIA, it is hard to imagine those donors opening up their wallets for Mr. Snyder’s re-election bid. And one can only imagine Mr. Schauer and the Democrats picking up the phone to see if they are upset enough to cut a check to help Mr. Schauer’s cause.

No Signs Of 2018 Tension Between Calley, Schuette
Posted: May, 22 2013 11:23 AM

From the moment Lt. Governor Brian Calley and Attorney General Bill Schuette won their respective offices in 2010, the parlor game immediately began about which would emerge in 2018 as the Republicans’ gubernatorial nominee.

We now pause for the usual array of caveats – neither has said he is running, both still have to win tough re-election bids in 2014, other potential candidates could emerge and five years is 300 lifetimes in politics.

Attorney General Bill Schuette (left) and Lt. Governor Brian Calley (right) at a Tuesday news conference.

All that said, the two men as of today clearly are in the best position to run, both are ambitious and either can make a strong case for why he should carry the Republican banner.

The dynamic made for an interesting scene at a Tuesday news conference in which Mr. Schuette, Mr. Calley (standing in for Governor Rick Snyder), legislators and other officials announced a new, enhanced effort to encourage students and others to contact law enforcement about possible threats to school safety (See Gongwer Michigan Report, May 21, 2013).

Mr. Schuette praised Mr. Calley as an “outstanding lieutenant governor.” Meanwhile, Mr. Calley said to Mr. Schuette, “thank you for your leadership on this issue.”

Now, there has never been a hint of any issue between the two, quite the opposite in fact. And they have both employed Strategic National, the firm of Republican consultant John Yob, for political consulting, so that’s another common tie.

Both come out of the same strain of the Republican Party that aligns with business interests and social conservatives. Neither is a tea party-type Republican although Mr. Schuette has staked out a handful of positions to the right of Mr. Snyder (and by extension Mr. Calley).

But an election inevitably leads to competition and candidates stating why they are the best choice. If both eventually run for governor in the same year, it will be impossible to avoid tension with such high stakes, making Tuesday’s exchange of kind words a distant memory.

Unclear How Jobs Argument Will Play In 2014
Posted: May, 20 2013 3:42 PM

One of the important subplots every time the state’s brightest economic minds convene at the Capitol to forecast state revenues for budgeting purposes is how the economy’s condition in upcoming years will affect the next election.

So last week, when the House Fiscal Agency, Senate Fiscal Agency and Department of Treasury agreed on an economic forecast that included the remainder of 2013 and 2014, two numbers stood out when considering the implication for 2014 when Governor Rick Snyder presumably will stand for re-election:

  • The number of jobs will continue to grow although, albeit steadily as opposed to robustly. Wage and salary employment will rise 1.3 percent this year to 4.077 million and another 1.2 percent in 2014 to 4.125 million.
  • The growth in jobs will continue the gradual reduction in the unemployment rate, which is now at 8.4 percent. Forecasters projected the calendar year rate for 2013 at 8.6 percent and 8.1 percent for 2014.

In the first half of 2012, when the unemployment rate began creeping upward, Democrats started to pounce, leveling the “Where are the jobs?” critique at Mr. Snyder that the opposition party, whichever party it is, deploys in such situations. Mr. Snyder, whose staff had touted the once falling rate as a sign his policies were working, instead began discussing how Michigan’s economic challenges remained and would not be solved overnight.

But after a recent peak of 9.4 percent in August, the unemployment rate has fallen a full percentage point and the number of people working has risen by 59,000.

What the forecast means is the political arguments are already set on the economy going into 2014.

Presuming the forecast holds, the Snyder campaign and the Republicans will say his policies have improved the economic climate. Democrats will counter that the bulk of the job growth since Mr. Snyder took office in 2011 stems from the auto industry rebound, especially when considering most of the growth occurred in 2011, before the big Snyder tax changes took effect.

Playing The Hitler Card
Posted: May, 8 2013 11:55 AM

Oakland County Executive L. Brooks Patterson’s labeling of House Speaker Jase Bolger as “Adolf Bolger” last week was not the first time a high-profile Michigan political figure tried to tarnish someone with a comparison to one of the worst tyrants the world has known.

Thanks to the Gongwer archives, and if you’re not a subscriber, access to our archives back to September 1993 is one of many good reasons to be one, I found several instances in the last 20 years of people playing the Hitler card in politics.

In 2006, the Detroit political consultant Adolph Mongo used a political action committee to purchase a newspaper ad comparing former Governor Jennifer Granholm to Adolf Hitler. Many months after Ms. Granholm won re-election, it was revealed that major Republican donors had donated to the PAC although all insisted they had no idea Mr. Mongo planned the Hitler ad.

In 1999, attorney Geoffrey Fieger, incensed at a Court of Appeals ruling against him, called the judges on the panel – Judge Michael Talbot, former Judge Richard Bandstra and Judge Jane Markey – Hitler, Joseph Goebbels and Eva Braun.

During the 1998 gubernatorial campaign, Mr. Fieger compared former Governor John Engler to Hitler and longtime Soviet dictator Joseph Stalin.

Also in 1998, the late Sen. George Hart likened legislation requiring the use of an imaging device to take the fingerprints of welfare recipients to something Hitler would do.

And in 1997, former Rep. Derrick Hale, a Detroit Democrat, unloaded on then-Rep. David Jaye as Mr. Jaye ran for the Senate. Mr. Jaye used an image of the civil rights leader Jesse Jackson as a way to attack a rival in a Senate election in a way Mr. Hale said was designed to inflame racial hostilities.

“David Jaye is the Fuhrer of the Legislature. He resembles Adolf Hitler in looks and character,” he said then.

And in 1994, the late Sen. Joe Young Jr. denounced the Lottery Bureau for a “Hitler-like approach” in saying it would implement a new Keno game even if voters rejected Proposal A, which contained the language to create the game.

Only Mr. Patterson, however, went so far as to hold a black comb over his upper lip to mimic Hitler’s infamous mustache to make his point, and he did it on a statewide television program. So while Hitler comparisons will likely happen again, if only relatively rarely, the odds of one again featuring a grooming accessory appear small.

A Familiar Refrain On Right To Work From Ohio
Posted: May, 3 2013 3:01 PM

Governor Rick Snyder’s phrase “not on my agenda” regarding right-to-work in Michigan became ubiquitous as he tried to avoid having the issue surface in the Legislature and then infamous when he declared he would sign the legislation and did so.

So Ohio Democrats who followed the right-to-work debate in Michigan probably are going to DefCon 1 after seeing the comments of Senate President Keith Faber, a Republican. Like Michigan, Ohio’s Legislature is controlled by Republicans and has a Republican governor, John Kasich.

Upon introduction Wednesday in the Ohio House of legislation to make Ohio a right-to-work state, Mr. Faber tried to cool the controversy by declaring … wait for it … that right-to-work is not on his agenda, my colleagues at Gongwer News Service/Ohio reported.

If that discouraged the two Republicans members of the Ohio House who introduced the legislation, they might want to contact Rep. Mike Shirkey (R-Clarklake), who heard the same from Mr. Snyder, stayed patient, kept working the issue and ultimately prevailed.

Similarly, if any Ohio Democratic lawmakers are breathing easy, now, their colleagues in Michigan could easily disabuse them of that notion.

In U.S. Senate Race, Republicans Missing A Key Weapon From ’94 Win
Posted: May, 2 2013 12:23 PM

Republicans began Wednesday trying to define U.S. Rep. Gary Peters, the newly minted Democratic U.S. Senate candidate, minutes after he formally announced in negative terms as everyone would expect.

But as the GOP hopes to win a Senate seat in Michigan for the first time since 1994, it will have to do so without one of the most powerful lines of attack it deployed that year.

That year, as in 2014, there was an open Senate seat because the incumbent decided not to seek re-election. Mr. Peters hopes to succeed U.S. Sen. Carl Levin (D-Detroit). Mr. Levin is a political icon and highly respected.

But that was not the case in 1994 with retiring U.S. Sen. Don Riegle, a Flint Democrat, and the Republicans took advantage to devastating effect. Mr. Riegle was coming off the Keating Five scandal in which he was one of four senators reprimanded by the Senate Ethics Committee for meeting with federal banking regulators on behalf of Charles Keating, the symbol of the Savings and Loan collapse and scandal of the 1980s. Another senator was censured.

Republicans tied Mr. Riegle to the Democratic nominee, then-U.S. Rep. Bob Carr, in what were then groundbreaking ways. The campaign of Republican nominee Spencer Abraham hired a film crew to sneak into the state Democratic convention and got footage of Mr. Carr and Mr. Riegle together on stage and put it into a television commercial. The Abraham campaign morphed Mr. Carr’s face into Mr. Riegle’s in other ads.

Mr. Abraham went on to win, aided by his campaign tactics and a transcendent year for Republicans nationally.

Trying to sink Mr. Peters by association with Mr. Levin is obviously a nonstarter for Republicans in 2014.

Indeed, one of the Republicans’ biggest worries has to be a reverse scenario, where Mr. Levin cuts an ad endorsing Mr. Peters as his successor. That tactic worked big-time in 1998, when another popular retiring longtime Democratic official – then-Attorney General Frank Kelley – cut an ad for Jennifer Granholm widely credited as a huge factor in her victory as his successor.

Maybe Time For An Agreement In Writing On Roads
Posted: April, 26 2013 3:30 PM

Tensions are rising among legislators and Governor Rick Snyder on road funding in large part because neither side trusts the other enough to go first on the issue.

Subscribers can read more about the issue in Thursday’s edition of Gongwer News Service (See Gongwer Michigan Report, April 25, 2013). Essentially, majority Republicans and minority Democrats are worried that if either moves first on the issue, they will pay a steep price politically.

The difficulty recalls an incident in the 1999-2000 legislative term. The Senate overwhelmingly passed legislation mandating that insurance companies cover treatment for diabetes, as well as diabetic equipment like testing strips, despite opposition from the business community.

But the legislation was going nowhere in the House, where Republicans sided with the business community against a mandate. Meanwhile, one of the House’s top priorities was passing legislation immunizing gun-makers from litigation and granting an automatic right to a concealed weapons permit.

Then-Senate Majority Leader Dan DeGrow had no problem with the gun bills per se, but seeing the House sit on the diabetes insurance mandate bills, he decided to apply a little leverage. The Senate would not pass the gun legislation without the House passing the diabetes coverage mandate. And he persuaded then-Speaker Chuck Perricone to sign an agreement in writing on that deal.

Finally, on the next to last legislative session day of the term, the Senate passed the concealed weapons permitting legislation and the House followed with passage of the diabetes coverage mandate. It took many months of tense bicameral negotiations and drama to reach that point – not unlike what is happening now on roads.

Dissecting The ‘Skunk Works’ Flap
Posted: April, 23 2013 11:21 AM

Governor Rick Snyder has found his administration on the defensive since a Friday report in The Detroit News disclosed that members of his team were working on a concept for a charter school that would allow its students to essentially purchase portions of their education a la carte through a debit card-like system.

In some ways, it is a classic political flap – the opposition party attacking the governor on a policy with which it disagrees and questioning the process behind developing it. And indeed, if Mr. Snyder does propose allowing a charter school with this set-up, it would represent a major change in education policy, even if just for one yet-to-be-established charter school, and warrant considerable debate.

But in other ways, it is a strange kerfuffle.

Let’s start with the obvious, which Mr. Snyder himself has acknowledged. The group’s decision to dub itself a “skunk works” – a reference to a group operating behind the scenes – was a big mistake perception-wise. It gave Democrats and others license to issue several thousand news releases (which is maybe an exaggeration on my part) saying the group’s methods and ideas stink.

It also helped Democrats frame the group’s mission as secretive and criticize Mr. Snyder’s administration as holding contempt for transparency. Also fueling that argument: The state’s chief information officer, David Behen, asked everyone participating to use private email addresses instead of their state employee ones.

That move would inoculate such emails from a Freedom of Information Act request, which can only seek public documents. The Snyder administration has insisted the reason for using private emails was only to keep eve