The Gongwer Blog

The Trott Ripple Effect On State Senate Races

By Nick Smith
Staff Writer
Posted: September 15, 2017 11:59 AM

It’s one thing that this week’s announcement by U.S. Rep. David Trott not to run for another term shakes up the 11th U.S. House District race in creating a potentially crowded GOP primary field.

But there’s a major side effect – Mr. Trott’s decision could result in the shakeup of as many as four state Senate races on the GOP side.

Take the 12th and 13th Senate districts in Oakland County.

Sen. Marty Knollenberg (R-Troy) in a statement following Mr. Trott’s announcement said he’ll be strongly considering his options. Mr. Knollenberg is up for a second Senate term and would likely win in the Republican-leaning district.

In June, Rep. Michael McCready (R-Bloomfield Hills) said he’s been considering moving “two blocks” out of the 13th Senate District to Bloomfield Township, which is in the 12th Senate District, so he’d be eligible to run to replace term-limited Sen. James Marleau (R-Lake Orion) instead of taking on an incumbent Republican in Mr. Knollenberg.

If Mr. Knollenberg were to enter the congressional race, Mr. McCready likely wouldn’t need to move to run for a Senate seat. He could stay put and run in the 13th. If he were in the 12th Senate District, Mr. McCready would face Rep. Jim Tedder (R-Clarkston) in a primary.

Also consider the 7th Senate District in northwest Wayne County.

Term-limited Sen. Patrick Colbeck (R-Canton Township) is in the race for governor.

Rep. Laura Cox (R-Livonia) is considered a top choice to run for the seat and the favorite if she does. Ms. Cox is among those seriously considering running for Congress in light of Mr. Trott’s decision.

If Ms. Cox opts for a congressional run, that could open up the GOP field in the 7th Senate District to other possible candidates such as Rep. Jeff Noble (R-Plymouth) or Republican former Rep. Laura Toy, a slew of local officials. And perhaps Democrats would give the Republican-tilting district a serious look if they weren’t facing the popular Ms. Cox.

Then there’s the 15th Senate District in western Oakland County.

Term-limited Senate Majority Floor Leader Mike Kowall (R-White Lake Township) has already formed a committee to run for secretary of state, but has expressed interest in the congressional seat.

Rep. Klint Kesto (R-Commerce Township) and Rep. Jim Runestad (R-White Lake) are also considering entering the congressional race. Mr. Kesto appears likely to do so.

Mr. Runestad and Republican former Rep. Hugh Crawford have filed committee paperwork to run for the 15th Senate District, while Mr. Kesto has been considered a potential candidate.

If Mr. Kesto and/or Mr. Runestad were to enter the congressional race it could clear a potentially crowded primary for Mr. Crawford, who’s not weighing a run for Congress.

For each race it’s too early to tell how things will shake out. Mr. Trott gave everyone plenty of time to consider their options prior to next April’s deadline to file.

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