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Unofficial
Primary Election Results
Race Emphasis Shifts To Economy, Primary System In Spotlight
A perfect storm of events helped turn the emphasis in the
presidential campaign to the economy in the Michigan primary, a topic that
winning candidate Mitt Romney barely touched 11 months earlier when he kicked
off his campaign in the state.
Hillary Clinton piled up enough of a margin of victory (55
percent) against “uncommitted” and also-rans to avoid embarrassment, but the
Democratic primary in particular served to underscore the push by both
Republicans and Democrats in Michigan for changes in the system in the next
cycle.
What did the primary not accomplish?
It didn’t thin out the field any further, with Mr. Romney –
a native of Michigan – the third different winner in the three contested
elections to date. John McCain, the winner of the 2000 Michigan primary, lagged
in second place by a 39-30 margin followed by Mike Huckabee at 16 percent and
Fred Thompson at 4 percent.
PREPARING FOR THE NEXT ROUND: The top three left with
enough strength to contest later states, along with the unknown factor of Rudy
Giuliani who did not campaign in the state.
For those who did campaign in the state, its long-running
status as the nation’s poster child of a flagging industrial base combined with
a widespread home mortgage crisis and heightened fears of a national recession
put the economy squarely in focus. That was also Mr. Romney’s strong suit among
voters, particularly after Mr. McCain bluntly said most of the lost jobs aren’t
coming back.
Republican Party Chair Saul Anuzis predicted the issues
raised in Michigan about trade, auto manufacturing and the economy would
resonate in other states for the rest of the campaign.
For Mr. McCain, the low-turnout election (20 percent)
exposed his problem when he’s not able to count on support of independents and
moderate Democrats.
Mr. Huckabee counted on the enthusiasm of his supporters,
many of them evangelical Christians, but that was more than offset by erosion
among party regulars following relentless attacks on his record by anti-tax
groups. Michigan did not serve to further define his campaign, however, as much
as it kept his hopes alive by denying Mr. McCain momentum as the frontrunner.
Ms. Clinton, whose appeal helped dampen Democratic crossover
votes for Mr. McCain, the biggest weakness was among African-American voters:
some 70 percent opted for uncommitted.
None of the Democrats campaigned in the state, but unlike
Ms. Clinton, both Barack Obama and John Edwards removed their names from the
ballot as well, making the lack of support more stunning as the candidates
looked ahead to elections in Nevada and South Carolina. Both states also have
large blocks of minority voters.
LOOKING AHEAD: Republicans have not carried Michigan
in the presidential sweepstakes since 1984, and would seem at a disadvantage in
a year when the national tide already favors Democrats.
Among the straws of hope the primary offered for the GOP was
the showing against Ms. Clinton by African-Americans, something that could keep
them in the game one leader said if she is the nominee.
DELEGATE COUNT: A later calculation by the Republican
Party gave Mr. Romney 45 of the state’s 60 delegates, with Mr. McCain getting
10 and Mr. Huckabee 2. Mr. Romney won 13 of the 15 congressional districts,
worth three delegates each, and a proportion of at-large delegates. Three are
uncommitted and at this time the party faces the loss of half of its delegates
for breaking scheduling rules with the early primary.
For the same transgression, Democrats are to loose all of
their delegates. At the time of this writing, the party had not calculated the
allocation of delegates among the candidates.
2010: Michigan, along with Florida with its January
29 primary, challenged the old order of presidential politics with their early
elections and punishment is to include the loss of national convention
delegates. But Michigan party leaders are confident that will not happen, given
the state’s pivotal role in elections, particularly as an essential anchor to
any Democratic win.
Democratic Party Chair Mark Brewer says the short-term pain
will pay off with a better system in the future after other states see that the
sanctions can’t hold.
A plan advanced by top GOP and Democratic officials would
rotate the process over several months, avoiding what is almost total consensus
against the heavily-frontloaded schedule this year, with each state getting a
chance by lottery of being in the mix for early elections.
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