By John Lindstrom
Publisher
Posted: September 15, 2017 2:42 PM
Campaign season for the 2018 election got underway on November 9, 2016, which makes this reminder a little late in coming, but it still should have some value as an awful lot of folks have yet to show up for the party.
Attorney General Bill Schuette just announced he is running for governor, joining a growing crowd that includes Sen. Patrick Colbeck (R-Canton Township) and former Sen. Gretchen Whitmer. All sorts of politicians and politicians in waiting are wrestling now with running for Congress in the 11th District. And the countdown still goes on for who will run for either the House or Senate in the Legislature.
Especially for the newbies, there is a critical fact of running for office, or playing a key role in the running of an office, you must remember. You may not like it, but it’s a fact, so face up to it now.
You run for office, you’re a politician. You manage a campaign, work on strategy, raise funds, you’re a politician. If you pass out fliers or make phone calls for a candidate, you’re politically active, politically engaged but not quite yet over the line. But if you run for office, or you are intimately involved in the strategizing and managing of the campaign, you are a politician.
Please keep that in mind should you find yourself at some point during the campaign claiming to voters you are not a politician. Because the moment your name goes on ballot or the instant you have made it happen that a person’s name is on the ballot, that magical moment when you need votes, you are a politician. You have lost your amateur status. You are now in the game.
Which is good. One may and one generally will be frustrated with politics, but politics is how things get done. If one decides to stop complaining solely and be an active participant (in addition to complaining), kudos to that person.
But be straight about it, too. Maybe you weren’t a politician before crossing the threshold. Now you are, and don’t say you aren’t. The voters know anyone running for office is a politician, so play fair with them.
Instead of saying “I’m not a politician,” try “I got in the race because I was tired of how other politicians weren’t getting things done,” or maybe “I’m a politician you can count on.” Whatever you choose, just don’t try to hide the fact that you are a politician and therefore you are running for governor, for U.S. Senator, for Congress, for the Legislature, for county commission, for city council, for school board.
And if the idea of saying you are a politician is too painful for you, well, then don’t be one.
By Nick Smith
Staff Writer
Posted: September 15, 2017 11:59 AM
It’s one thing that this week’s announcement by U.S. Rep. David Trott not to run for another term shakes up the 11th U.S. House District race in creating a potentially crowded GOP primary field.
But there’s a major side effect – Mr. Trott’s decision could result in the shakeup of as many as four state Senate races on the GOP side.
Take the 12th and 13th Senate districts in Oakland County.
Sen. Marty Knollenberg (R-Troy) in a statement following Mr. Trott’s announcement said he’ll be strongly considering his options. Mr. Knollenberg is up for a second Senate term and would likely win in the Republican-leaning district.
In June, Rep. Michael McCready (R-Bloomfield Hills) said he’s been considering moving “two blocks” out of the 13th Senate District to Bloomfield Township, which is in the 12th Senate District, so he’d be eligible to run to replace term-limited Sen. James Marleau (R-Lake Orion) instead of taking on an incumbent Republican in Mr. Knollenberg.
If Mr. Knollenberg were to enter the congressional race, Mr. McCready likely wouldn’t need to move to run for a Senate seat. He could stay put and run in the 13th. If he were in the 12th Senate District, Mr. McCready would face Rep. Jim Tedder (R-Clarkston) in a primary.
Also consider the 7th Senate District in northwest Wayne County.
Term-limited Sen. Patrick Colbeck (R-Canton Township) is in the race for governor.
Rep. Laura Cox (R-Livonia) is considered a top choice to run for the seat and the favorite if she does. Ms. Cox is among those seriously considering running for Congress in light of Mr. Trott’s decision.
If Ms. Cox opts for a congressional run, that could open up the GOP field in the 7th Senate District to other possible candidates such as Rep. Jeff Noble (R-Plymouth) or Republican former Rep. Laura Toy, a slew of local officials. And perhaps Democrats would give the Republican-tilting district a serious look if they weren’t facing the popular Ms. Cox.
Then there’s the 15th Senate District in western Oakland County.
Term-limited Senate Majority Floor Leader Mike Kowall (R-White Lake Township) has already formed a committee to run for secretary of state, but has expressed interest in the congressional seat.
Rep. Klint Kesto (R-Commerce Township) and Rep. Jim Runestad (R-White Lake) are also considering entering the congressional race. Mr. Kesto appears likely to do so.
Mr. Runestad and Republican former Rep. Hugh Crawford have filed committee paperwork to run for the 15th Senate District, while Mr. Kesto has been considered a potential candidate.
If Mr. Kesto and/or Mr. Runestad were to enter the congressional race it could clear a potentially crowded primary for Mr. Crawford, who’s not weighing a run for Congress.
For each race it’s too early to tell how things will shake out. Mr. Trott gave everyone plenty of time to consider their options prior to next April’s deadline to file.
By Zachary Gorchow
Executive Editor and Publisher
Posted: September 12, 2017 2:28 PM
Michigan’s 11th U.S. House District is not a toss-up seat, even with U.S. Rep. David Trott’s decision not to seek re-election in 2018.
Yes, it has gone from a longshot opportunity for Democrats if they had to try to unseat Mr. Trott (R-Birmingham) to one very much on the radar screen where they could, with the right circumstances, win it.
Various national political analysts and reporters, whom I hold in high regard, have gotten a bit carried away on what Mr. Trott’s departure means. They’re calling the 11th District a toss-up.
I define toss-up, as I assume most do, as neither party having an advantage and it would not take much for the seat to go either way. Remember when the old 8th U.S. House District flipped between Democrat Bob Carr to Republican Dick Chrysler to Democrat Debbie Stabenow to Republican Mike Rogers in the span of just five election cycles?
That’s a toss-up seat. Or when U.S. Rep. Bart Stupak retired in 2010 after a long run where his personal popularity led to nine victories in a politically competitive seat, triggering a razor-close race to succeed him? That’s a toss-up.
But the 11th District was drawn by Republicans in the Legislature to favor Republican candidates, plain and simple. When it comes to seats in the Michigan Legislature, I’ve downplayed the significance of GOP control of the map drawing process, but the design of the U.S. House districts in metropolitan Detroit, with the requirement that they be even in population, was a flagrant move by Republicans to help their cause, and the 11th stands as the most obvious example.
The district basically stitches together every Republican-leaning community in Oakland County south of M-59 along with the one corner of Wayne County that tilts GOP, snaking from Canton Township north to White Lake Township, east to Auburn Hills and then south to Clawson. The Democratic turf in this seat consists of Canton and Auburn Hills. Everything else is Republican country.
What intrigues Democrats, and it should, is the district has the highest percentage of any district in Michigan of those 25 and older with bachelor’s degrees at 46 percent. The median household income is $77,183, also high.
Politics is starting to break more along educational and income lines, with higher-income voters with bachelor’s degrees starting to leave their longtime home in the Republican Party in response to President Donald Trump. Democrats are hoping to make inroads in these types of seats.
Still, Mr. Trump did carry the district in 2016, though he ran below the Republican base. And it’s still a district that’s 80 percent white, a demographic that favors Mr. Trump.
And look at the potential candidate fields. The Democrats have two candidates in the race making their first run for political office and could have a third rookie. Potentially, the Democrats could add a seasoned candidate in state Rep. Tim Greimel (D-Auburn Hills) if he decides to run.
When we went over the list of potential Republican candidates yesterday in our office, we came up with 20. 20! Now, some of those ruled themselves out right away, and there’s no way that many will run, but the Republicans have plenty of potential options. The reason there are more Republican options than Democratic ones is this is Republican territory.
Of the nine state House districts that heavily overlap with the 11th, seven are held by Republicans. And of the three state Senate districts that significantly overlap with the 11th, all three are in Republican hands. This also filters down to the municipal level.
Yes, Democrats can win this seat. They no longer have to worry about Mr. Trott pouring millions of his own fortune into the seat to defend himself, and the usual advantages of incumbency are gone for the GOP. The president’s party traditionally loses seats in the mid-term elections, and this is a district where Mr. Trump is more likely to be a negative than a positive, though it’s still too early to say for sure.
But this is still a district anchored in Troy, Novi, Birmingham, Livonia, the Plymouths, the Northvilles and reliably conservative exurbs like Milford, White Lake and Waterford. Hey, guess what those communities historically have had in common in their politics? Hint: It’s not electing Democrats.
Democrats’ chances of winning this seat improved Monday with Mr. Trott’s departure. But calling this seat a toss-up now? It’s way too early to draw that conclusion.