By John Lindstrom
Publisher
Posted: January 11, 2018 3:02 PM

We are now less than three years before finding out officially that we will lose a member of Congress. Yes, Michigan’s population has grown, which is good when the country is growing, but not as fast in relationship to other states to prevent us from losing at least one seat in the U.S. House of Representatives. If we see a big upsurge in growth over this year, 2019 and the first few months of 2020 we might be able to stave off a loss and stay at 14 seats, but not, at this moment, is that likely.

Which brings us back to the lamentable game we as a state have had to play since 1980: which congressional seat, which congressional member do we lose. We went from 19 seats to 18 with the 1980 census, to 16 with the 1990, to 15 with the 2000, and the current 14 with the 2010 census.

Before looking at that more closely, here is a side game. And here is the answer: U.S. Rep. Fred Upton (R-St. Joseph).

The question is: In January 2019, which Michigan congressperson will have served continuously for more than a decade? Mr. Upton, presuming he runs and presuming he wins, will be the only one. Yes, Rep. Tim Walberg (R-Tipton) was elected in 2006, but he was then defeated in 2008 before returning with the 2010 election. While he will have served at least 10 years, it has not been continuous.

That speaks to the stunning change that has occurred to Michigan’s delegation. The longest-serving member of the U.S. House, former Rep. John Dingell, decided against running in 2014. Former Rep. John Conyers was the dean of the House until claims of sexual improprieties forced him to resign last month. And then U.S. Rep. Sander Levin (D-Royal Oak), who has served for nearly 40 years, announced he would not seek re-election. And add to that former Republican U.S. Reps. Dave Camp and Candice Miller as well as former Democratic U.S. Rep. Bart Stupak leaving office and since 2000 nearly 200 years of congressional service from Michigan has ended.

And not just years of service, but real power. The representatives who have left Congress were the chairs and ranking members of major committees. Until the last session, Mr. Upton was chair of the Energy and Commerce Committee. Now no Michigan representative is a committee chair.

Which means what when we get down the shedding part of the game? Two caveats. One, there is always the chance someone will decide not to run in 2022, that makes the task easy. Second, the answer could be complicated if the Voters Not Politicians redistricting proposal win at the polls in November. It is very hard to say what it could mean in terms of how lines will be drawn and who will be the odd congressperson out.

If it doesn’t pass, and the Legislature is left to make the redistricting decisions, the fact that most Michigan’s delegation are newbies means there are very few powerful names to protect. Not that the Legislature was always worried about protecting persons, such as when Mr. Dingell had to square off against Democratic colleague former U.S. Rep. Lynn Rivers after they were tossed together in a district.

But add term limits to the mix and very few if any lawmakers drawing lines in 2021 will have served in any capacity with any of the current U.S. House members in the Legislature. Meaning, there won’t be as many legislative friends U.S. reps will be able to call on for some aid in Lansing.

As to where a seat may be lost, well, for nearly 40 years that has always come from the Detroit area. Will it still?

Here is a thought. Rep. Justin Amash (R-Cascade Township) has proven relatively popular with his district, he has been a major thorn to President Donald Trump and he is disliked by the business community and what has been labeled the Republican establishment. If the state is forced to mix districts up is it too far-fetched to suggest Mr. Amash might have to go up against someone like Mr. Upton or U.S. Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Zeeland)? Especially if the district would favor Mr. Upton or Mr. Huizenga more?

We’re just playing a game, after all. Ponder the possibilities.